"India-US Trade Deal Will Happen In First Half Of The Year": Ian Bremmer To NDTV

The India-US trade deal will happen and likely in the first half of this year, Ian Bremmer, the chief of the Eurasia Group has said. As for the US hike in tariff for India, it may not even make it to the list of top risks in 2026 for India, indicated the world's top risk research guru, saying while it is a "big story in 2025, it is less of a story in 2026".

In an exclusive interview with NDTV's Editor-in-Chief and CEO Rahul Kanwal, Bremmer was asked about a timeline for the long-awaited trade deal. "India-US trade deal will happen in the first half of this year," he replied. 

The India-US trade deal, in the making for months, has noticeably slowed down since the ties between the two nations took a sharp downturn in August last year following Washington's imposition of 50 per cent tariff on India over New Delhi's continued purchase of Russian oil.

PM Modi last spoke to Donald Trump on December 11, shortly after the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin To India. Later in December, following the visit of US Deputy Trade Representative Rick Switzer, Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said India is at an "advanced stage of negotiations in the discussions with the US".

Earlier today, President Trump had remarked while he has a very good relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, "He's not that happy with me because you know they're paying a lot of tariffs now because they're not doing the oil, but they are, they've now reduced it very substantially, as you know, from Russia".  

The fluidity of the situation over the trade deal and the absence of an estimated timeline has increased the pressure on exporters in India ahead of a new financial year. Domestic export sectors such as leather, chemicals, footwear, gems and jewellery, textiles and shrimp have been severely hit by the imposition of the 50 per cent tariff by the US and hope for some relief in the coming days.