Deal Done, But Iran Can Still Restrict Access To Hormuz, Flags US Intel

United States President Donald Trump's decision to escalate tensions with Iran may have unintentionally strengthened Tehran's strategic position rather than weakening it.

Sources familiar with the findings of US intelligence assessments told CNN that Iran now has the capability to effectively restrict or shut access to the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical global oil route managing 20% of flow. This shift is seen as giving Iran significant leverage over global energy markets. 

The CNN report noted that, regardless of the framework agreement expected to be signed between the US-Iran on Friday to reopen the key waterway, Iran has already shown during the current conflict that it can shut access to the Strait of Hormuz at will. The US intelligence assessments suggest that could happen again.

“We have now handed Iran de facto control over the strait – a weapon more powerful than any nuke,” one of the sources familiar with the US intelligence assessments told CNN, emphasising how the war has fundamentally altered Tehran's thinking about leveraging similar tactics in the future.

With the conflict, Iran has also learned that it can use targeted strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure as an asymmetric tool as it did following the US-Israel strikes in late February. The report added that this has increased Tehran's leverage in negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz. 

On the matter, a senior US official told CNN that Iran will not receive any benefits under the framework agreement unless the strait remains open and it meets other commitments.

According to the report, Iran believes that it can continue to weaponise the Strait of Hormuz because it still holds a large weapons stockpile. These include missiles, drones, launchers, and fast boats capable of harassing shipping and laying mines. Iran is also rebuilding its military-industrial base faster than expected.

According to Reuters, a $300 billion private investment fund has been outlined as part of the expected framework between the US and Iran. A source told Reuters that more than half of the amount has already been committed. The agreement also includes steps to end the war, lift the US blockade on Iran and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.