Yeah. Hello and welcome. You're watching India Global. I'm Vedanta Giral. A lot is happening diplomatically in this week and well, we'll decode some of the most important events what they mean for the world and indeed for India. But first up the headlines US and UK strike Iran backed Houthi targets. Yemen is targeted after the 27th attack in the Red Sea. The Houthi military says six have been killed and still counting. Mhm. India, meanwhile, increases the navy's Red Sea deployment. The focus is on anti piracy along Somalia's coast. Oil jumps 4% as tankers avoid Red Sea after strikes Myanmar junta confirms a temporary ceasefire ceasefire with the northern rebel alliance after China mediated between the two troops, a close race in the high stakes battle. Taiwan heads to polls. China to the US says do not interfere in Taiwan and with the row with India, China says it is firmly opposed to external interference in Maldives as President Moman Mozo winds up his first overseas visit. China jumps into the India Maldives row and says that well, Maldives is equal and a big exclusive on ND TV this week. Savia Prak speaks to ND TV, the first Hindu woman to contest the Pakistan polls and well, from Maldives to MoMA's visit to China. To, of course, the Houthi attacks. A lot is happening globally, particularly in the Indo Pacific, and we have with us a special guest who will decode all the aspects. You know, as far as these diplomatic events are concerned, Mr Derek Grossman is with us. He's a senior defence analyst. Thanks for being with us. We will decode these key events with you as a new geopolitical reality is now taking shape. But starting with a big lead on India Global this week, the immediate fallout of the Israel Gaza war, a sea route that is critical to global trade, the Suez Canal is facing its biggest and deadliest threat in recent history. There have been more than 25 attacks on commercial ships flying the Red Sea since the war began three months ago. Who are the rebels behind the attacks? The Iran backed Houthis Well maritime escalations are at their peak, with the US and UK launching an all out attack on the Houthi rebels by air and sea. The spate of attacks could have a devastating impact on global trade. These commercial ships that ply the Suez Canal represent more than 12% of global trade and nearly 10% of the world's oil demand. Global oil prices, as a result of these strikes have already begun to spike and this happened after the US and UK strikes yesterday. Now this route is extremely critical for India too, with 65% of India's oil imports passing through this route. But let's look at the latest escalation the US and UK launching an all out attack on Houthi rebels. What does this really mean? What are the immediate ramifications? Here's a report, the latest in concerted joint strikes by the US and UK against the Yemen's Houthi fighters, air ship and submarine strikes on Thursday after repeated warnings to the rebels. On target are weapon storage, air defence and logistic facilities of the rebels who have continued to attack ships in the Red Sea. Despite the warnings, US and UK forces were able to down 18 1 way attack UAVS two anti ship cruise missiles and one anti ship ballistic missile when these weapons were launched towards international shipping lanes where dozens of merchant vessels were operating The strikes are the first on Yemeni territory since 2016 and also marked the first military intervention by the US in Yemen. The Houthi military claims lives have been lost and Iran wants of retaliation. The raids have led to martyrdom of five and injuries to six others from the members of our armed forces. The strikes against the Houthis came as US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken wrapped up his visit to the Middle East. We've been focused on a number of key objectives, first preventing the conflict from spreading second, getting more humanitarian assistance to people who need it. Three. Increasing protection for civilians. Four. Getting hostages out and finally continuing to support Israel in its efforts to make sure that October 7th can never happen again and so that this conflict can end. It is not necessary for the court to come to a final view on the question of whether Israel's conduct constitutes genocide. Meanwhile, South Africa took Israel to the International Court of Justice, accusing it of genocide in Gaza and urged the top UN court to halt the war. Israel has a genocidal intent against the Palestinians in Gaza, something Israel strongly denies. to weaponize the term genocide against Israel in the present context does more than tell the court a grossly distorted story. South Africa's landmark case accuses Israel of committing the genocide in breach of the 1948 genocide Convention. Vishal Vivek, Osama Sha for MB TV. And, well, Derek Grossman is with us. Of course, a senior defence analyst, Somebody who watches this region very, very closely. Mr. Grossman, how do you look at the attacks on the Red Sea on these commercial ships? What ramifications do you think it will have for global trade? Of course. The strikes that we saw by the US and UK on the Houthi rebels in Yemen. It's very concerning because the Houthis supported by Iran and it risks the possibility of a greater conflict within the Middle East, which is going to have ramifications, obviously for everyone in that region, but also globally. Uh, because it could bring Iran and Israel, uh, as well as the US, uh, and potentially, uh, countries, uh, into armed conflict with each other. And, of course, as you mentioned, there is the global trade aspect. Right? So you have, um, the the, uh, the Houthis firing at chips that are going, uh, that are that are moving along, Uh, a major, uh, sea route. And so the united with, uh, several other countries have decided to work collectively to secure that sea route. And this is all about the US trying to maintain, um, some measure of peace and stability in the region. Um, but of course, when you take action Uh uh, an armed group, it also raises the possibility of greater armed conflict. So it really is a, uh, a careful balancing act that Washington, uh, as well as other countries must play absolutely very worrying. Indeed, Mr Grossman, do stay with us as we look at the other big story as well. Well, from tensions in the sea to the standoff in India's backyard, the Maldives has been dominating headlines in India this week. Well, celebrities, netizens top politicians were up in arms against the island nation after Maldives made derogatory remarks against the prime minister's visit to Laksha. But we look at the larger picture shifting dynamics in the Indo Pacific. China and India have been vying for presence in the island nation for decades, but our side of the world is witnessing a new geopolitical reality and that, of course, is deeply rooted in the economic slowdown. Take a look at this report. A visit well timed maldive bonamy with China on display amid its diplomatic standoff with India over PM Modi's photo op in Lakshadweep. As MoU asked China to send more tourists to his country after a boycott call for the Maldives in India, New Delhi is cautious about the island's newfound camaraderie with the dragon. Among the 20 agreements inked a pledge to enhance tourism, Co-operation and strategic partnership. We will continue to strengthen and drive the economic industry and boost visitor numbers. China was our number one market pre covid and it is my request that we intensify efforts for China to regain this position. More than one third of Maldives economy relies solely on tourism with the island's floundering post pandemic economy and tensions with India that sends over 20 LAC tourists to Maldives every year. Pro Chinese President Moi's move was unexpected lines, but amid the diplomatic conundrum came a surprising statement from New Delhi. Sorry 2020 GTF. The article, titled The Bharat Narrative, said that India is rapidly transforming into a pole in the multipolar world and that the speed of such changes is rarely seen in the history of international relations. Reaffirming India's emergence as a key player in the new world order this as India's army chief said that the situation along the northern borders is stable yet sensitive. As far as the situation on the northern border goes, I would say the situation is stable yet sensitive. We continue to talk both at the military level as well as the diplomatic level. Amid China's rising footprint in the Indo Pacific Maldives, outreach to Beijing could be a cause for concern given its strategic location and commercial significance. For New Delhi, The man who won office in Maldives on his India out campaign has been quick to please China and India too, has taken on the challenge in the year of the dragon hitting straight where it hurts the most Maldives tourism industry with an giral for ND TV and when Mr Derek Grossman continues to be with us, Mr Grossman, how do you look at Mai's visit to China and of course also decode for us why the economic reality of the Indo Pacific, particularly that of the Maldives, cannot be separated from its outreach to China. Well, I, I think we have to be careful not to blow the whole thing out of proportion, right? Because, uh, who had campaigned on India out? So it's It's very unsurprising that he's trying to make good on his campaign pledges. But let's also be realistic about this. It's gonna be very difficult to make good on those campaign pledges. Because India is for is the most important, um, that the Maldives can have, uh, because not not the least of which, because of geography, but also because the amount of investment that India does, uh, in the Maldives, India, especially since Modi came into office in 2014, has been, um, much more forward leaning on trying to, uh uh, well or, you know, signing investment in infrastructure development projects throughout South Asia and around the world. Actually, um, some of this is because India is in competition against China's belt and road initiative, but also some of this is because India wants to, um, to be a leader in the global south, irrespective of what China is doing. Uh, and, uh, you know, I think Maldives is a part of that now, you know, China in the past has been able to do things at a very fast pace and usually, you know, relatively cheaply, right? But, um, that doesn't mean that that China is the only game in town. And in fact, you know, there are some serious concerns about the quality of the infrastructure, uh, that China is building and also the potential for country, smaller countries, uh, to become, you know, debt ridden because of the BR I agreements they're signing. So there's certainly an opening for India over which I think India over the last, uh has, um, uh, you know, been able to take advantage of absolutely Mr Grossman. And indeed, it's a larger story about a new geopolitical reality as well, because India's stand has also been rather firm and unwavering. But stay on with us, as we also look at the crucial elections in India's neighbourhood. Of course, 2024 is an election year and in the shadow of China, and Ireland is asserting its identity. Taiwan goes to polls on Saturday in the high stakes elections, But will this escalate its conflict with China? That is a big question. Take a look, we do not provoke or surrender. We have won the trust of the international community with unparalleled credibility to face China confidently and calmly. China will surely be reunified, and all Chinese on both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be bound by a common sense of purpose. A much watched election both by China and the world. Taiwan will vote on the 13th of January, and both Taiwan's president and Xi Jinping have the ante from Taiwan's defence ministry reporting Chinese balloons flying in its vicinity. The balloons are feared to be used for spying to China, accusing Taiwan of unfair trade practises, even ending some tariff cuts. China is interfering in Taiwan's elections, using many platforms such as Doin or tiktok. China is also using artificial intelligence to conduct cognitive warfare against Taiwan. Term limits bars the outgoing president from Democratic Progressive Party from running again they but China has branded this year's DPP candidate and current Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching te as a separatist Taiwan's largest opposition party, the KMT, projects the upcoming vote as a choice between war and peace. Like most other nations, India and Taiwan do not have official diplomatic ties, but India currently ranks as Taiwan's 14th largest export destination and 18th largest source of imports. The two countries are close to inking a migration pact for skilled labour from India after Taipei expressed interest. In July last year, a third Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre, a de facto consulate for Taiwan, opened in Mumbai and Taiwan based Foxconn, a chip supplier for Apple, recently announced investments worth $1.6 billion. There was chatter about Foxconn looking to partner with TSMC, the world's largest chip maker, also based in Taiwan, to make in India. This is being seen as a move away from China after a tense election, an establishment of what is perceived to be a pro China government in Maldives. This is another election in India's extended neighbourhood that New Delhi will be watching Shishi Shankar ND TV 24 7 and let me go across to Mr Grossman. So Mr Grossman, this, of course, is a keenly watched election in 2024 is going to be a fascinating year, more than 50 countries going to polls. But just looking at Taiwan, what all is at stake, really and do you think that this could potentially escalate its conflict with China. Yeah, so obviously there's a lot at stake. Uh, Qingdao or William Lai of the Democratic Progressive Party in Taiwan, uh, is going to win tomorrow. And that is China's worst fear, because Lai in the past has said that he's a pro independence worker or pro independence supporter of Taiwan. Uh, but I wouldn't III. I don't think that you're going to see immediate action from China If that happens, or or at least threats of military action, I should say, Uh, right after the election result, I think it I think China is going to take a wait and see approach. Uh, and that means waiting and seeing what happens. Uh, Lai gives his inauguration speech, and the reason I say that is because that's exactly what China did after Tsai Ying wen was elected back in, uh, January of 2016. Uh, and when Tsai said that the 1992 consensus was an historic fact quote unquote, she thought she was giving an olive branch to extending an olive branch to Beijing by saying that because it implies there's a one China, um, formula, uh, Beijing basically said No, that's an incomplete test answer. Try again. Uh, so I think Lai is gonna get a similar treatment. And if he does not give the correct testing to Beijing, then um, we could see trouble ahead. Absolutely. So this election will be closely watched by New Delhi. Mr. Grossman, thanks very much for joining us in India Global this week and really unpacking everything that's happening in the world of diplomacy but moving now to our immediate neighbourhood. Well, some relief for Pakistan. As it heads to polls in February, Pakistan has finally secured the IMF approval for a $700 million loan. On the political front, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is likely to kick off the campaign next week, days after the Supreme Court cleared him to run for 1/4 historic term. But Imran Khan's tussle over PTIs party symbol the bat continues. The country's poll body has challenged a high Court order that held its decision to strip the party of its symbol last month as illegal and more bad news for the PTI. Former foreign minister and PTIs senior vice president Mehmood Qureshi has been also declared ineligible to contest, and Imran Khan, of course, still remains behind bars so well. While a lot is at stake, it's going to be another chapter in Pakistan's volatile politics. We have a very special guest on India Global. This week Sra Prakash is joining us live from Pakistan. She is the first Hindu woman in the history of Pakistan to contest for Parliament. Savia Thanks very much for joining us on India Global this week Meraki election bid him or a Nas Hindustan Maya subcontinent may as a metaphor for minorities in South Asia. What is really the situation of minorities in Pakistan? In your opinion, uh, minorities. So Mala her country minority malabu Pakistan or even Europe. So, um, uh, concerns. You have, uh, mala coffee. Uh, different. Uh, jo Hamara area to district Bir or sin yole Pakistani. Different K though sin KBB convergys or isaki ye all are the peaceful Mahony community. And for Pashtun KPK, a Pashtun community that there to be as pun except K ki respect, respect, religion or ki traditions or culture respect. Hamari Karte Turo respectful ye Mera district and ye both respectful Pakistan KAK concerns Yoki Pakistani election hung BKHALEB election election hung truly free and fair hung in letter and spirit given the fact that Kafi L, ultimately military, will end up calling the shots. Uh, gee, uh, elections May house the home or, uh hopefully, uh, time pay you K party K a transfer time pay OJ or uh uh is she is maybe a like a transparency. Uh, Transparency a OB Is the farm full? Uh, try her party. Her level K uh, bilk Jan bilk Mala vote Totally genuine. Uh, votes in Shales The Jessica Aniak ji Pakistan Election Instability Mahal Bana Political instability Yair as a as a result economic instability of the Apu Lata Not just as somebody is contesting, but some as a citizen of Pakistan Apua laake is stability Aman or Shanti Pakistan Mike restore the Yeah instability to me Uh, majorly to blame Karuna Toma Constitution Both late 1973 men. So, uh, B PB literacy rate both come in or uh uh, even district may be literacy rate 48%. Uh, woman literacy rate 25 to 29%. Uh, to me, this blame or female representation become china, but, uh, just part Pakistan People's party Go in chiso matla came a hamari women representation be ular inclusive Amari party. OK, minorities could be Selebi. Ma uh, Harri Ram or Doctor? Uh, Mahesh um malani Sabi elections get ruler. The senate may be minorities. Um, no, uh K Anwar Lal Um Dan may be represented hamari party Say though hamari party agra say the, uh taa inclusive oniki Yeo Instability Mala in a representation. He just, uh minority representation through the woman representation. Both zam though, is she a balance out a party to a efforts to the KZ Hi. A B India Stand clear or talks Pakistan Terrorists, Extremists shield kart Hian kas the ni uh, basically bath uh, J Misra a hamari country. But, uh, in the political instability, economic instability to is to country go as a weak, uh, to shelter or a B Uh um MIKPKK. So, uh, even the minority female Give me example kind of, uh, K. Ok, uh may feel, uh, joke district B backward area. Ye may say feel good, you know? So a BH is a prevalent me jib Klara BK Akam Asli India Global pay and all the best to you as Pakistan heads to polls. Of course, it's going to be an interesting week. An interesting month. An interesting year ahead for global politics, for diplomacy. And, of course, India Global will be a one stop shop for all of that. That's all the time that we have this week. Goodbye.
