Good evening and welcome. You're watching India decides I'm Verana Karbala. Special focus on the show tonight. Well, we have data that reveals that in high profile seats, including seats with big faces like ANAB Bly also union ministers Nhan Gy, Kranju, go Gogoi All these seats which has which have star campaigners have witnessed comparatively lower polling this time. What is the reason behind it? Well, it's a complex analysis behind. But the fact of the matter is that turnout across the board has been comparatively lower. And in these seats which witnessed high voltage campaigns from union ministers, star campaigners of various parties, polling was relatively low. Now this is based on data that we have taken from 2019 and of course this year in terms of phase One. Now if you can put that graphic back on air now, starting with Nilgiri where a raja, of course a star of the DMK. This time the polling was around 70% in phase one, compared to 74% last time around in 2019. Similarly, thi, of course, a keenly contested battle Kani Mori, who has been the sitting MP from there this time significantly lower polling in Thu. Similarly, Kim. But of course, Anna Alai. Which is of course, who is of course BJP star campaigner. The BJP's principal vote catch in Tamil Nadu. He he's you know there is a fresh candidate from Kim Bato. So marginal shift in polling there and not just in Tamil Nadu. If you go across to seats like Muzaffarnagar in Uttar Pradesh, of course, Muller Nagar is a seat that has been discussed A great deal. Uh, you know, we've been discussing and decoding the muzaffarnagar dilemma as well. There, You know, the Muzaffar Nagar seat saw significantly lower polling in phase one, this time with Sanjib B. And of course, as a star campaigner. What is really the the the ramifications? What is the analysis behind it? Well, we have, uh you know, uh uh, uh a power packed panel. We have Amitav Dewa joining us in studio. Uh, Nea Choudary will also be joining us on India decides tonight and our reporters spanned across India. I'll be joined by Rt Nade who is joining us from Guwahati. Sam, Daniel is joining us from Chennai Tanish Punjabi from Lucknow as well. I'll be going across to my reporters. But first, a quick word from you, Amit, on this data that is with us. How do you see this? Because, as I said, there is a complex analysis behind it. It's not so simplistic. We cannot be reading into it very simplistically because factors at play. But the fact that you know these seats saw high voltage campaigns, you know, carpet bomb campaigns, these terms that are thrown at us. Despite that, why do you see, you know, polling percentage relatively lower when compared to 2019? I see One reason, perhaps, is definitely the heat wave and the high temperatures. We have seen that even in Uttarakhand, which is a hilly station, there has been a lower turnout compared to 2019. The second is that some B JP cadre or voters could be could have become overconfident because of this Mission 400 slogan. And for the on the other hand, some opposition voters could see this election as a done deal. So why go out and vote? And also in states like Rajasthan and western Uttar Pradesh? There has been some discontent among JAT community as well as the Rajputs, and this could have led to some amount of lower turnout in these states. So it's a combination of factors seat by seat, state by state. And as you mentioned the elect, it is very difficult to establish any electoral trend or an outcome on this because from 1957 to 2019 16 elections, 10 elections, voter turnout has increased six times, the incumbent has won. And of the six times the voter turnout declined only two times the incomes have come back. It's a very complex relationship. Absolutely. And as you mentioned, it's on both sides. It's not just one star candidate or star campaigner that we can sort of hold responsible for lower voter turnout. NC is also with us, but going across to our reporters first, Sam Daniel is joining us from Chennai. Sam code These figures for us, of course. You know, Speaking of Tuuri, very interesting. Kani Mori, one of the star campaigners of the BJP, a high profile constituency Thu Kuri, you know, significantly lower polling there as well. What do you see as the reasons behind this? Well from the common man's perspective, three reasons one is the heat wave conditions across Tamil Nadu that could be one factor. Second one apathy, particularly among the younger first time voters. For example, many even on camera, said in Chennai that they planned to go on a vacation to put the cherry and chill out there. And thirdly, politically, they say that dip or status quo means there is neither a pro wave or an anti wave, and that could be the political reason for that. For specific situations like Thu Kuri, Kim Moli seeks a second term, and the DMK sources say they are quite confident in such seats that since they have a formidable alliance, their alliance arithmetic should work, and they are quite confident that they will be able to win. But from the BJP's point of view, for example, in Kim Tour it has seen a marginal rise in share or to turn out from 63.9% in 2019 to 64.8% nearly 1%. So the B GP says it's a clear indication that many are have come out, additionally, to help the B GP or to vote for the B GP. But both the ADM and the DMK say not really. It's a bastion for us. Both the AA, DMK and DMK say we have a strong base there, and this additional 1% or nearly 1% vote share or turnout is only an indication that people have taken that extra measure to keep the BP away. So is it going to be advantage? The ruling DMK or is it going to be advantage for BJP and Kimba? That's something we'll have to wait and watch. But this is how local people and the political parties look at this difference in auto turnout, particularly a slight dip compared to 2019. Sam. Thanks very much for decoding that for us. Tanish Punjabi is live with us as well. He's joining us from Lucknow. Mua Nagar is a very interesting seat and, you know, looking at Western up. If you speak to locals there and political pundits, they would say to now, D, do you think that the R and D BJP alliance How is that playing out on the ground? Do you see some sort of disillusionment among Kari Karta who have worked for the past five years and then sort of this alliance is cropped up? Do you think that has caused some amount of disillusionment. Well, uh, we, uh you know, first, let us talk about the whole, uh, uh, drop in the dip in the, uh, in the world share in the water turnout. I'm sorry. So, uh, uh, talking about, you know, this could be, of course, for several reasons. One that is that has already been mentioned that that the weather could play a very important role because it is very hot outside. And, uh uh, it's very hot outside, but, you know, we cannot We cannot of course, uh, ignore the political importance of this cause. Uh, this could definitely impact the ruling party. Now, low voter turnout should be. It is. It is definitely a concern for the ruling party because it could be seen as less enthusiasm in the pro incumbent in the pro incumbent voters now coming to the very important political constituency of Muzaffarnagar in the western part of Uttar Pradesh. It is from Samajwadi Party or from the India bloc. It was It was it was Harinder Malik and Sanjeev Ban, who won last time also from the ND now ND specifically because rld and the BJP are in alliance this time. So one of course factor was. You know, while the data is not while the booth wise data is not out yet, it will be. It will be out in some time and we could have a more clear if we could have a clearer picture. But there was low water. Turnout was seen especially in the booths in the Hindu dominated areas, and there was high high voter turnout in the Muslim dominated areas. So of course, this could be a sign of worry for the BJP, only talking about them for another constituency. Now, now, since rld also rld coming in coming together with the BJP. These are, of course, you know, complex, complex things we have to We have to wait and watch and see whether or not, you know, rld voters went with the with the with the BJP candidate or were they upset about both of them coming in alliance? Yes, right. In fact, there's a lot of discussion around Sanjib Bali and Jan Choudhury joined campaigning also, but a significant drop in polling there in Muzaffarnagar Ratan Choudhury is also with us. Thanks sans for that Ratan Northeast is extremely complex and particularly you know, seats like, you know, seats in Manipur. But specifically talking about Arunachal West Kiran Riju, star campaigner of the BJP, a union minister fielded by the party. Still, you know a significant drop in polling, you know, eight point a drop by 8.4%. Well, talking about Kiran you seat Arnal west, remember? He is a heavyweight union minister and he was up against another political stalwart, former Arnal Pradesh Chief Minister Naam TKI of the Congress. But if you look at Arnal Pradesh for the past couple of years, B JP has only grown in strength. Remember, there was simultaneous assembly elections also held yesterday in Nach Pradesh, where there is a 60 member assembly of which in 10 years B JP had already won uncontested, including the seat of the Chief Minister Pema Khan and his deputy Cha Min. So therefore perhaps in constituency as well, many of the opposition voters did not turn up and also because many would see it as a foregone conclusion that the focus would be on the state polls. And already BJP has an edge. So therefore, when there is less competition, there is always a tendency of lesser turnout added to it is weather concerned. It has been raining in the northeast. In fact, I had to do this OB indoors because there's heavy rain outside. In fact, there were rain alerts as well. So therefore, weather had also played a part partly in Pradesh in terms of the turnout. However, this turnout also does indicate that give perhaps an edge to the P JP in both the looks seats of Raja Pradesh as well as for the 60 member assembly. Because talking about, you know, turn out. If you look at the Joha constituency there, the turnout has increased because there you see, there is a tough competition between the sitting B, JP, MP, Toan, Gogoi and Congress's God of Gogoi. So where there is mobilisation from both the opposition and the ruling combined, there is more turn out. Look at the Tripura, for that matter of fact. Out of this 102 seats which have gone to polls, West Tripura is one of the highest over 81%. That is because of two reasons, primarily because Tripura has a history of high turnout and BJP has been mobilising its workers there for a long time. And the opposition there is not down and out. So therefore there is more turn out. Same goes for the other seats in Assam. However, talking about Manipur, given the fact that it has it is just limping back from last year's so many people lost their lives. Therefore, the turnout has been less Thanks very much for that comprehensive analysis. Thanks to all our reporters, Sam Tan and, uh, Ratan there reporting, uh from, uh, Guha Thanks all very much for joining us on India decides Let me get in our guests now NRA Choudhury and Amitabh Dewa with us in studio Uh, NRA going across to you first, uh you know, is there no direct correlation between the kind of campaign blitz that we see on the ground and voter turnout? Because these seats that we're talking about, whether it's Kim Bator, whether it is Nagpur, uh, you know, even the br for that matter chinda very interesting. You know, high voltage campaigning there. Does that not directly sort of, uh, you know, is that not directly proportional to the kind of polling that we see? I think overall, it's fair to say from the reports that have come in from all over the country. There are exceptions, of course. It has been what is called the thunder election. Wherever you've gone, the word uses thunder Shan low decibel and you know one of the reasons forward it was that it's a done deal. Therefore the and of course clearly the B JP Carter was not proactive as it has been in the recent other election, so that that part is certainly a factor now. It is also, it said, not like 2019 election, where there was the Indo park euphoria after Pulwama and the surgical strikes. It is also not like the 2014 election, when UP was a dirty word. Narendra Modi was on the rise and there was, you know, enthusiast and fervour. And as I say, euphoria now all that has been missing this time overall. Now, if you look at the VIP constituencies, there are only two. You see where the voting percentage has increased normally, you associate traditionally, when you decode elections, you associate increased voting percentage to a desire for change. I think it's very simplistic to say that, but I would say two constituencies VIP constituencies if you can point them out. One is Kim one Nala gone up by 1% and got up. Go in. As I in your heart also gone up now, I would, uh you know, uh, um I think there is significant some significant because it could be a desire for change in your heart. Could also be a desire to bring Anna Malay. He's fought a very good battle. He is viewed very well. He's seen as a rising star of the future that people may want to give him a chance to bring him to the lo. It is perfectly possible, but overall, as I said, it would be simplistic. Take, for instance, Muzaffarnagar. I've been tracking some of the constituencies that I visited. Now Soar Nagar. The news is it is down by almost 10% of what it is now. I'm told in the Muslim boots more details will come in in the next 24 to 36 hours. But in the Muslim boots, the voting was very high, Right? Right. That's an interesting point. In Hindu area, the voting was below 50%. Right? So the fact that this is not a Hindu Muslim election. But if the Muslims have voted on block right then and much will also depend on how the BSP candidate has voted and how much percentage of the vote he gets. The base of the in fact. I was speaking to a local political pit and he said Muzaffar, but you made an interesting point, ma'am, that you know, many times it's said that lower voter turnout is advantage, the incumbent government. But that can be what I'm saying. It's very simplistic to come to conclusion. It could be apathy, you know? OK, we are not very enthusiastic, but we are going to vote for. And I was I was, in fact, in al until yesterday and after the voting percentages came out. Both the Congress and as well as the BJP were disillusioned. Both of them were rather confused. What is what do these numbers really mean? So there can be no fixed theory? Many earlier it was said, a lower voting percentage is advantage Congress. Sometimes, it said, a lower voting percentage is advantage the incumbent government. So there is no theory that that's completely reliable. Here, you need more detail. There is no theory, of course, But like all and bi, clearly two stalwart union ministers are contesting. And there also there has been a sharp decline in turnout, which indicates that the high margins of 2019 will not be repeated. Correct because, that's for sure, because the margins will not be there. And there is a discontent among jars and rajputs, and even the Adivasi community is confused because there is alliance with the Congress or not. There is an official Congress candidate, whereas the B, the BAP, has also put up a candidate. Urban apathy is for sure. If you see Tamil Nadu, I think one point to also add is that a I AD MK voters are generally anti DMK voters. Now, as Sam was saying that if there is a rumour about an under the table deal between the DMK and the A ID MK to keep the BJP out, then what does the A. I AD MK voter do, who has been voting traditionally for the against the DMK and does not want to vote for the BJP? So it's a complex combination of many factors chra you mentioned chra last time the margin was just 37,000 votes. So if there is a high decline in turnout, which means he sort of correct, Saharanpur is another example. Muslims generally tend to vote in higher numbers than the Hindu community, that's for sure if you see the historical pattern. But muzaffarnagar, just to add one line, is that rld has moved from India block to ND. But has the JAT community moved from? That's very important rld to ND. That's a big question that has created some confusion and some amount of discontent and a lower turnout. Perhaps that's a very important point that you raise. And, ma'am, would you like to weigh on this because there are, you know, alliances being formed, left, right and centre. But, you know, many would point out that these are not natural alliances. So you know, when it's an unnatural alliance, that sort of, uh, fights an election. There is no natural transfer of the electorate. There is no natural transfer of the ground worker of the Kari Karta on the ground. In fact, it's sort of there's more disillusionment on the ground. So would you would you sort of attribute this to that fact as well that many Nat Unnatural alliances are at play on both the sides. No, that's absolutely correct. You know, uh, has the RLD chart voted RLD JT will stay by Jan Chowdhury site. 95% of them are expected to stay. They The chart is consolidated, but actually have the enthusiastically gone out and voted for sanj ban, for instance, or for others, you know, in the western region. So I agree that the picture is much more complex than used to be the case in the past. And I think shind warra, for instance uh, dropped in, Uh uh, vote share I would worry about because shinwa is a high stake election, you know, they are fighting to retain the primacy of that constituency, so apathy doesn't make sense. Kamal and Nakul constituency. So I can I agree. More data one needs. It's a very, very complex picture. But, uh, that this election has seen so much, so many moves made by parties from one side to the other. Mara, you know, and we don't know how it's going to pan out. That's a very important point again. And aha, we on that as well, because, you know, many voters you speak to many urban voters, perhaps so many young voters they would. They say that we are we have to choose from, you know, different shades of the same colour that you know, you know, there is no credibility left. Politicians are jumping ships every day. So perhaps, do you think that's also a factor? And what does? What do these numbers actually say about the larger picture of our democracy? Currently, you see, for many people, maybe first time voters, young voters, politics and politicians are dirty words. Correct. So let's say, for example, Chennai Chennai has seen all forms of governments, Congress, DMKDMK, all forms of government. But still, whenever there is a rain in Chennai, there are floods. So people have seen all sorts of governments which have not been able to solve the basic issues which, as you mentioned, the key word credibility trust which has led to a trust deficit that these governments either are not capable or do not have the political will to solve basic issues of people, which has led to cynicism which has led to less participation from the young voters that if we need to solve the problems ourselves, then probably why do we need any any sort of a government? And if RWS and the people themselves have to venture out and and find out their own, then probably that is what has led to this sort of a turnout decline. But it is very alarming. Because Election commission radio channels ND TV itself star influencers personalities have been canvassing an awareness campaign. This is the first time in the last three or fourth election that the turnout has declined. So despite all this, if the turnout declines by 4 to 5% I think it is a cause of concern. And parties will need to change the strategy going forward because it has made everybody confused as you are saying, Everybody is claiming that they know the trick, but it has. It has led to a suspense which will lead parties and candidates to rethink and perhaps more exciting. It makes the job more exciting for all of us. But before I give the last word to Nija, ma'am, very quickly, Amit, you know the sense that we got on the ground from voters is that perhaps many of them didn't know what they're voting for. Perhaps there are times when If you look at the 2019 elections, even the state Assembly elections. But love was a key word. Or perhaps you know, coming out in support of an incumbent of a strong incumbent was the other sort of alternative. But right now, because you know but love to what? Because perhaps the opposition also has not been able to that message of moving from the incumbent to another alternative. So those who wish for change, let's say exactly, do not see hope in the opposition or have not seen a very sustained sort of campaign from the opposition on key issues like probably unemployment price, etcetera. They have been going all around on issues like car sensors and Cy capitalism, etcetera, so they do not see a viable alternative. So that could have led some people to stay back home. And that leads to you can say a double whammy for the opposition because the state of the BJP, wherein they have 50% plus vote share in so many states in 200 plus seats. If you need to win, you need to snatch voters from BJP to your fold. So if they just stay home and do not vote for the opposition. That does not work. Absolutely important point there, Anita. And the last word to you. Do you think there's a disconnect between New Delhi and India? And I know I don't just mean, you know, the high commands, but also the media. Because, you know, in the past couple of elections, the senior journalist yourself, do you think the media also has been getting so many elections wrong? I mean, we didn't anticipate the extent of the BJP's win in Madhya Pradesh, which is why you know, ND TV, you know, hasn't done, um, you know, poll exit polls for such a long time, and we sort of do poll of polls. But do you think that that disconnect between New Delhi and India is What is you know is what these numbers are a reflection of, perhaps, Yeah, I mean, we often say, sitting in Delhi, you really have no idea about what's going on. I mean, the rest of the country that is a given. As a media person, I really feel that we sit here and discuss and discuss, but we have no idea. And it's a very different picture. When you go into the field. But I think it would be fair to say that given what we picked up, this is not a wave election. This doesn't mean that the B JP will not come back to power. This doesn't mean that the DMK may not get the maximum number of Loka seats from Tamil nad, you know. But it is not the kind of it is certainly different from 2019 and 2014. In what way? Different. We will soon find out, as we, you know, get into the you know, further phases and more data and detail gets back to us. But I think it is a much more complex election that perhaps we have seen and you it may be. In some areas, local issues have come to the fore much more than in the past, and it's become Modi versus Local in some areas. Whereas in 1920 19 and 14, the Modi was able to subsume the issues that I think is very well put. Thanks very much for joining us on. India decides tonight, but I mean, of course, let's not write it off so soon. There are six phases left and the message right now is, of course, for youngsters, first time voters and you know everybody indeed to get out and vote. That's all the time that we have on India decides tonight from all of us. Goodbye.
