- A Falcon 9 upper stage is predicted to crash into the Moon on August 5, 2026
- The impact is expected near the Einstein crater on the Moon's western limb
- The rocket stage will hit at about 5,400 mph, seven times the speed of sound
A discarded upper stage from a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is expected to crash into the Moon on August 5, 2026. The prediction was made by independent astronomer Bill Gray, who tracks near-Earth objects using his Project Pluto software, Science Alert reported. The object, designated 2025-010D, is forecast to impact the lunar surface at approximately 06:44 UTC (2:44 a.m. EDT). Gray estimates the collision will occur near the Einstein crater, located along the Moon's western limb in a heavily cratered region between the near side and far side of the lunar surface.
"The motion of space junk is mostly quite predictable; it simply moves under the influence of the gravity of the Earth, Moon, Sun, and planets. We know those with immense precision," Gray explained.
The debris is the 45-foot-tall upper stage of a Falcon 9 rocket launched in January 2025. At the time of impact, it is expected to be travelling at nearly 5,400 mph (8,700 km/h), roughly seven times the speed of sound.
While the collision will not be visible to the naked eye from Earth, scientists are expected to study the aftermath using orbiting spacecraft such as the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. Researchers hope to capture images of the newly formed crater and analyse material blasted out from beneath the Moon's surface.
Astronomers say predicting the exact path of the rocket stage has been challenging because of solar radiation pressure - the tiny but continuous force exerted by sunlight. Since the object is tumbling through space, the amount of sunlight it reflects changes constantly, slightly altering its trajectory over time.
The Falcon 9 itself is a partially reusable rocket developed by SpaceX. Standing about 70 metres tall and weighing around 550,000 kilograms at liftoff, the rocket's first stage is designed to return to Earth for reuse, while the second stage typically remains in space after completing its mission. This particular upper stage was part of the Falcon 9 mission launched in January 2025 carrying multiple lunar payloads, including the Blue Ghost Mission 1 and Hakuto-R Mission 2 Moon landers.
Unlike many Falcon 9 upper stages that either burn up in Earth's atmosphere or drift into solar orbit, this stage remained trapped in a long, looping orbit around Earth. It currently takes around 26 days to complete one orbit, passing as close as 220,000 kilometres from Earth before travelling out to nearly 510,000 kilometres, far enough to cross the Moon's orbital path.
This will not be the first human-made object to intentionally or unintentionally strike the Moon. During the Apollo era in the 1970s, NASA deliberately crashed spent lunar modules and rocket components into the lunar surface to generate vibrations, helping scientists study the Moon's internal structure through artificial "moonquakes."
