Electoral politics is, unfortunately, largely a cost-benefit analysis for the contestants, especially in a state like Karnataka with India's richest legislators and parliamentarians, most of whom have huge business interests. There is a definite financial investment to be made to win an election and the amount is in crores or tens of crores, depending on the constituency, candidate, and the state. Candidates willing to make that financial investment keep the returns in mind.
In Karnataka, the Congress's emphatic victory in the 2023 assembly polls means the benefits of being in state politics outweigh the uncertain prospects in New Delhi.
Congress leaders candidly admit that there is a lukewarm response from some Karnataka cabinet ministers, and even some of the MLAs, for the call to contest the Lok Sabha polls. In fact, Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, a few weeks ago, had publicly stated that his ministers must contest, if the party asks them to.
While the reluctance is palpable even in Telangana - the other southern state where the Congress wrested power - it's more pronounced in Karnataka where, since 2004, the BJP has won not less than 17 of 28 parliamentary seats. The ruling party's two-decade Karnataka juggernaut hit a peak in 2019 with a near total sweep - 25 of the 28 seats.
Even Mallikarjun Kharge, the present Congress president, lost his traditional stronghold of Gulbarga to the BJP in 2019. Other strong parliamentary faces like KH Muniyappa, a seven-time MP from Kolar, lost in 2019 and subsequently shifted to state politics, winning the assembly election in 2023. He now seems settled into a comfortable ministership in the Siddaramiah cabinet.
These are Congress veterans who held out till 2019, but the real problem is that over the last two decades, the party has failed to nurture strong young parliamentary aspirants in most constituencies.
For instance, in the three urban seats of Bengaluru (North, South and Central), the Congress has tried various candidates since 2004, including Nandan Nilekani in Bengaluru South in 2014, but has failed to breach the BJP bastion. There are 17 such seats in the state where the BJP has had consecutive wins over the last two decades and finding candidates, young or old, who can put up a genuine fight, is a challenge .
This is exactly why the Congress wants serving state ministers to enter the poll contest. The only way it can ensure that a candidate puts up a strong fight is if it becomes a prestige battle. For instance, state Congress chief DK Shivakumar's brother DK Suresh is the lone Congress MP who survived the BJP sweep in 2019, and has consistently held the Bengaluru Rural seat.
Congress leaders use this as an example to show that if one puts up a genuine fight, it is possible to wrest a seat even in a sweep election. But, in the same breath, they assert that there are very few such candidates.
In Mandya, after the death of actor-politician Ambareesh, his widow Sumalatha contested as an independent backed by the BJP because the Congress, in an alliance with the JD(S), gave the seat to its ally in 2019. Since then, Sumalatha has firmly stayed with the BJP. The Congress is hoping to get state cabinet minister HC Mahadevappa to contest the polls from here. He is clearly reluctant.
Making powerful state leaders dive into the contest is difficult. Most believe that it could weaken their stature if they lose a contest and, more importantly, they do not want to spend their resources. "What if I win? will I give up ministership and shift to Parliament?" asked a senior state cabinet minister, requesting anonymity. It reflects the thinking process.
At the same time, given that Karnataka and Telangana were the only two seat winning states for the BJP from among the five southern states in 2019, a Congress challenge here is essential if it has to contain the BJP's overall numbers.
A senior congress leader from Telangana, who was once a parliamentarian and later contested and lost the 2023 assembly polls, shared that it's too expensive to contest a parliamentary poll. It was better to look for entry into the legislative council and be active in state politics, he said, again requesting anonymity.
This would be different had there been a realistic chance of making it to power at the Centre. The reality is that the Congress candidate is contesting with little hope of a change in Delhi. Which is why party strategists feel that prestige battles or one that revolves around political rivalry/survival, backed by strong money power or the caste vote could be crucial motivation and should be factored in choosing "winnable" candidates in states like Karnataka and Telangana. Even in Tamil Nadu, the dominant Congress ally, the DMK, is keen to have a say in the choice of candidates by the Congress. Which is why they are yet to firm up a seat-sharing arrangement. In fact, 2019 was a sweep for the DMK-Congress alliance, which won 38 of the 39 seats in Tamil Nadu. The lone defeat was the then Tamil Nadu Congress president EVKS Elangovan, who lost to AIADMK leader O Paneerselvam's son P Raveendranath.
It's a lesson that if a strong candidate like DK Suresh can withstand a BJP onslaught in Karnataka, a candidate who doesn't work on the ground can lose even if there's a sweep election for the party.
As far as Karnataka is concerned, the BJP seems all focussed on an aggressive Hindutva push. The issues that it has picked up in the last few days - a Temple Bill, alleged pro-Pakistan slogans and a scathing political attack on the state government after the Rameshwaram cafe blast - clearly reveal the party's strategy. Hindutva and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's persona are its core selling points this time and there is lesser emphasis on Karnataka's famous caste and sect arithmetic.
The BJP's alliance with the JD(S) seems extraordinarily strong on paper and the vote shares of the two parties put together, since 2004, is comfortably above the 50 percent mark. This is an enormous reality for the Congress, which has been traditionally weaker in any parliamentary face off against the BJP in the state.
The state leadership is keen to put up a fight and it is a prestige battle for the Congress president. It's also a battle that could determine the road ahead for the state government, with conflicting power centres. In fact, Siddarmiah's son Dr. Yatheendra publicly linked his father's continuance as Chief Minister to the party's showing in the parliamentary polls.
The objective and intent are there, the only question is whether they have candidates on the ground to take the fight to the BJP.
(TM Veeraraghav is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author.