Opinion | Rahul's 'Masterly Inaction' Can Cost Congress More Than Just Karnataka

Away from the din in parliament, the Congress in faraway Karnataka is struggling to get its act together. As the November 2025 'deadline' of an in-house power-sharing formula is inching closer, the grand old party insiders fear a repeat of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Punjab in Karnataka. Between 2018 and 2023, the Congress lost power in these states due to the infighting. Madhya Pradesh was the first to go after Jyotiraditya Scindia revolted and defected to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in 2020. By the time assembly polls were held in Punjab in 2022 and subsequently in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh in 2023, the rivalries of Captain Amarinder Singh-Navjot Singh Sidhu, Ashok Gehlot-Sachin Pilot and Bhupesh Baghel-TS Singhdeo had become so intense that no amount of welfare-ism and good governance could salvage the situation.  What was worse was that Sonia-Rahul Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge remained hapless spectators.

Why Removing Siddaramaiah Is Not Easy

At Bengaluru's Vidhana Soudha, the big question doing the rounds is, will Rahul Gandhi, representing the political leadership of the Congress, enforce a change of guard? Would he be able to bench Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and bring in DK Shivakumar? When Karnataka gave the Congress a handsome verdict in May 2023, Rahul had hammered out a compromise between an eager and restless state party chief, Shivakumar, with Siddaramaiah promising to protect his interest at a future date. Rahul was perhaps hoping for the party's better performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and a central role for Siddaramaiah. Nothing of this sort happened.

The challenges confronting Rahul Gandhi in Karnataka till November 2025 are manifold. While he, Sonia and Priyanka Gandhi bat for Shivakumar, removing Siddaramaiah is not easy. Rahul, having taken up the cause of the backwards classes in reservations and census, cannot afford to remove a backward-class Chief Minister and have three upper-caste Chief Ministers - Sukhwinder Singh Sukku in Himachal Pradesh, Revanth Reddy in Telangana, and Shivakumar in Karnataka. 

The Kharge Awkwardness

The Gandhis have an additional burden in Mallikarjun Kharge. The 88th president of the All India Congress Committee (AICC) is keen to throw his hat in the ring, offering himself as a replacement for Siddaramaiah. In Kharge's scheme of things, a backward-class Chief Minister getting replaced by a Dalit would not create any hiccups. Privately, Kharge has often narrated his story of how, thrice, he came close to becoming the Chief Minister of Karnataka but lost the race to the likes of Siddaramaiah, SM Krishna and Dharam Singh.

Conventional wisdom says Rahul, Sonia and Priyanka would be least interested in sending Kharge to Bengaluru. But the Kharge camp is still optimistic. It may be worth noting that when it comes to Karnataka's political affairs, Kharge consciously sticks to the 'high-command-to-decide' refrain - as if to stress that he is not part of the 'high command'. In any case, party leaders familiar with Karnataka affairs don't feel Kharge would make the cut. 

All in all, the problem of retaining or replacing Siddaramaiah remains. Shivakumar is not in the mood to wait till 2028 and perhaps sit for another five years in the opposition to become a chief ministerial face in 2033. In fact, he has been getting constant feelers from those claiming to represent the ruling Delhi durbar. Nonetheless, as of now, to Shivakumar's credit and Congress's relief, the prospects of pulling a Scindia are not on his mind, for now.

Betting On Bihar

All eyes are on the Bihar assembly outcome. If the mahagathbandan edges out NDA-Nitish Kumar, Rahul, having somewhat proved himself, will have greater chances of manoeuvring and perhaps breathing easily on the plank of social justice. A poor Opposition showing, on the other hand, will set uncertainty in motion not only in Karnataka but in Himachal Pradesh and perhaps in Jharkhand, too, where the Congress is part of the ruling coalition led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha's (JMM) Hemant Soren.

A section of the Congress blames Rahul Gandhi for creating much of the confusion in the selection of chief ministers way back in December 2018, when he was the AICC chief and the party had won Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh assembly polls.

The Chhattisgarh Fiasco In 2018

Rahul had then tried to act as a 'democrat', but, in the process, ended up annoying many. In Madhya Pradesh, his childhood friend Jyotiraditya felt let down when Rahul went by a headcount (that was a strategic coming together of MLAs loyal to Digvijaya Singh and Kamal Nath) instead of projecting a young face. Jyotiraditya defected after 15 months, bringing down the Kamal Nath government.

The selection of a chief ministerial candidate for Chhattisgarh had proved to be the trickiest. Rahul had four contenders for the post. Singhdeo was a suave and experienced hand, but his feudal background stood against the former Sarguja ruler. Tamaradhwaj Sahu, the then lone Lok Sabha Congress MP from Durg, was AICC pointsman PL Punia's favourite, and was at the last minute fielded in the state assembly polls to win the influential Sahu samaj votes. Then there were the resourceful and worldly-wise Charan Das Mahant, a former Union Minister, and Chhattisgarh Congress unit chief Bhupesh Baghel.

Ghosts Of A Rebellion

On December 13, 2020,  Singhdeo, Sahu, Baghel and Mahant were summoned to Delhi and given an audience with Rahul Gandhi. The latter hugged them and tried to hammer out a consensus. Over the next three hours, Sahu was almost declared the next Chief Minister of the tribal-dominated state, till a rebellion blew up right into Rahul's face. Almost speaking in unison, the three regional satraps refused to work under Sahu, declining to be ministers. Rahul panicked, and consequently, another round of consultation followed. This time, Singhdeo emerged as a favourite - till Sahu threatened to revolt. Motilal Vora was brought into the negotiations.

When the deadlock failed, Sonia's trusted aide and AICC treasurer, Ahmed Patel, intervened. Patel backed Baghel, and to Rahul's astonishment, everyone almost came around. It is said that when Baghel's name was cleared, Rahul or someone on his behalf whispered that Singhdeo would be considered to complete the second half of the chief ministership. Today, both Vora and Patel are no more, and Rahul is no longer the AICC chief. But in Raipur, TS Singhdeo kept pressing his aspirations till the party got voted out.

If Rahul opts for masterly inaction, the prospects of a repeat of Madhya Pradesh cannot be ruled out. In the long run, a replication of Punjab, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh is almost a certainty. 

Clearly, Rahul is running out of time and options.

(Rasheed Kidwai is an author, columnist and a conversation curator)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author