The most-watched summit meeting has ended. Trump had arrived in Beijing with a phalanx of businessmen, with just three of them having a combined net worth of over $1 trillion. That was unsurprising, given the nature of the Trump presidency, famed for its deal-making and emphasis on trade. But none of that enthused China. Unlike his 2017 visit as an honoured guest, with an unprecedented state dinner in the 'forbidden city', this visit had no great pomp and ceremony attached to it. Major issues on the table were well known, but the devil lay in the details. Critics observed that the US President went to Beijing on a weak wicket, given the Iran war and his low popularity ratings.
Weighing Up The Opponent
Even before the visit commenced, the first task for officials on both sides was to assess the strength of the leadership at the table, in terms of a winning hand or a poor one. The agenda points would have been fixed long ago and likely centred around trade, particularly Artificial Intelligence, Taiwan, and the Iran war, in some order of priority for Trump. What mattered was how many cards each assessed the other as holding.
First, China would have assessed the US presidency from the considerable drop in Trump's poll approvals, which, at 6% negative, is a lot and hinges mainly on inflation, the highest in two years. Xi, on the other hand, has no poll approvals to worry about publicly, but his recent 'purges' of over 100 senior military officials, among them two top generals - Zhang Youxia, and the chief of the Joint Staff Department, Liu Zhenli - on alleged corruption charges, would have been seen as a minus point. This was touted as a move to end patronage networks and strengthen the imperturbable Xi. But given past ingresses of the US Central Intelligence Agency - not to mention a new video that seeks to tap into unease within the army, especially the middle ranks - the possibility of some of them at least being compromised remains. The reverse also holds true. Very recently, a Southern California Mayor pleaded guilty to being a Chinese agent. The Federal Bureau of Investigation provides a copious list of arrests on such charges - four were in April alone. Fantastically, Trump remarked that both countries spied on each other , an admission that no other president would ever have made.
Then there's the flip side. The Trump administration has had its own 'purges', firing some 43% of his 'A' team, including senior-level officers in his office and at least a dozen top cabinet-level officers, who were either forced to resign or shown the door. So, on that count of personal popularity and system degradation, the score remains 1-1. That means policy uncertainty on both sides. This is no good going forward.
The Trade Deal That Doesn't Come
Then there's the state of the economy, closely tied to the future of each, and thereby the urgency of a trade deal - something that didn't materialise from the visit and seems unlikely now. Apart
from inflation, it is a public fact that tariffs did not bring more revenue to the US - in fact, in the case of China, it dipped steadily. Notably, despite US import and export falling 25% by the end of 2025, according to research by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, China still reached a $1.1 trillion trade surplus that same year. Now the proposed 'Board of Trade' (and Investment), which seeks to allow trade without crossing national security red lines, is an acknowledgement that such tactics don't work, and that some kind of arrangement is necessary to keep highly interdependent economies intact.
The trouble is, trusting China to keep to certain guardrails is risky. A Phase One trade deal signed in January 2020, which had a pledge by China to buy an additional $200 billion worth of US goods, was never fulfilled.
Meanwhile, China's breakneck days of growth are over, and key issues include persistent deflation, excess capacity in industry, declining profits, a weak job market, and a property market that has been on its knees for a while. China has inducted significant financial stabilisation measures, and, most importantly, has proved that it can stand up to trade protectionism and retaliate in good measure. Which is why the Chinese are not talking of a 'Board' or anything like it. They simply called it a "working mechanisms to expand economic and trade cooperation".
Meanwhile,Apple announced expansion in 2025 even as McDonald's multiplies its footprint. Also on board was BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink. A massive deal is in the offing with Hong Kong's top conglomerate, CK Hutchinson, for some 40-plus ports, including those in the Panama Canal, in a deal that could be worth more than $40 billion, which was welcomed by Trump but frowned upon by China. That is likely to be a huge negotiation point, with China insisting that the consortium includes a Chinese company. In trade each has something to offer, but at present, it is China that is sitting pretty making it a 1:2 . No wonder then that there was no reference to a Board of Trade, and no apparent 'deals', though there are hints on this. The Chinese readout indicated a commitment to buy US agricultural products and energy but little else.
AI And China's Grip
At the top of the heap on the trade issue is Artificial intelligence and the reality of China's grip on the whole supply chain. The most recent chaos in that area was when the US tech giant Meta poached the Chinese firm Manus in a $ 2 billion acquisition that has Beijing in a fury. According to Reuters, Chinese regulators ordered that Meta walk back on this even as the company closed its offices in China and moved to Singapore in July. That enabled it to bypass both US and Chinese restrictions.
Manus' two co-founders, CEO Xiao Hong and chief scientist Ji Yichao, were summoned to Beijing for talks in March and later barred from leaving the country. Manus's work on AI agents - tools designed to carry out complex tasks with minimal human intervention - has been hailed as the next 'DeepSeek' and is the world's first general AI agent framework that operates on top of existing Western large language models.
China is going to want that back, and Washington will refuse. A Board of Trade can not prevent such games, and everyone knows it.
Meanwhile, the White House has accused China of 'industrial scale' theft, using 'tens of thousands of proxies' to siphon off critical data. Remember that the project surge in the US economy is primarily expected to be on the basis of AI investments. The boom could equally turn to bust, if China - as alleged - continues to skim off the cream. As of now, the US is about eight months ahead of China in the game, and the aim will be to increase that gap - even 12 months is an eternity - which Beijing can play off using its massive edge in the entire critical minerals ecosystem. The US is trying to 'outmine' China with massive investments in Greenland, for instance.
But all of this will take time, especially as the Pentagon is waiting to 'weapon up' depleted stocks. So, overall, the score is about 1:1.5 in this area, with advantage China, despite a series of sharp US business moves.
Negotiating An Exit
Then there's the obvious: the Iran war, where Tehran is refusing to roll over and play dead. Ever since 'mediation' began, there has been no doubt whatsoever that one important participant in mediation is China, however veiled that is through Pakistan. That was apparent as Trump said that the Chinese had agreed not to supply Iran with weapons, a claim that Beijing immediately denied.
Meanwhile, Trump rather mysteriously declared that he "knew all about it" when asked about Pakistan opening some six routes into Iran. That would essentially facilitate Chinese trade - chemical and oil tankers are arriving in both Port Qasim and Karachi by the day, many Chinese or Hong Kong-flagged, including LNG tankers - which means some quid pro quo has been achieved.
The rise in oil prices has roiled the global economy, but it seems to have affected China far less, thanks not only to its massive strategic reserves but also to Russian oil, and possibly to a continued flow from Iran via the rail route (not to mention an ongoing shift to renewables). But inflationary pressures will affect China's exports, which would work against it, given stagnant domestic demand.
Meanwhile, China is earning a good reputation in the Middle East as a more reasonable power. On the subject of Iran, it may be that China is winning the long game, even as it paces its energy requirements. As of now, the score is 0:1 on this issue.
The Taiwan Question
The most important issue for China is Taiwan, with President Xi openly warning of clashed and endangering the entire relationship on the issue. Trump has publicly indicated that he has the least interest in, Taiwan leaving open another 'transaction'-style diplomacy point. In his usual style, he blamed the country for stealing the American semiconductor industry, denied a
transit requested by Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te, and has yet to pass a December 2025 promise of a $11 billion arms package - the largest ever - to Taiwan. Meanwhile, in his typical style, Taiwan has also been battered by tariffs and trade wars, and demands to 'do more' on defence. Dismayingly, in an interview after the visit, he made this abundantly clear. But in his typical 'transactional' manner, he also said on his return that he was mulling over the massive arms package. Trump wants something in return.
All this is immediate concern not just to Taiwan, but also to Japan. Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae recently framed the Taiwan issue as a direct 'survival-threatening' situation for Japan which means it would see it as an act of 'self defence'. As the US-based think tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies notes, "Between January 2020 and December 2025, the daily average of China Coast Guard vessels entering Taiwan's near waters increased by more than 500%, while daily incursions into Taiwan's second maritime security ring more than quadrupled on average". If a 'deal' is reached, and China moves on Taiwan, another alliance relationship will end, and very abruptly. Don't forget Japan has all the technology it needs for a nuclear weapon, and the resources. This part of the world could change, and swiftly with unknown outcomes.
In sum, the much touted summit seemed to further prove that the overall relationship is definitely weighted in favour of China. As of now it seems Trump is willing to 'give' on issues important to China. But Trump is waiting for something. Apart from some agriculture and energy buys, both of which were expected before the visit, China could potentially quietly 'gift' an end to the Iran war without in the least taking credit. Remember that Iran's Foreign Minister was in Beijing only recently. The problem for India? The price for that would be non-negotiable - in effect, a US recognition of China as the dominant power in this part of the world, while leaving Washington to flaunt its flag elsewhere. That's our nightmare. But it is also everybody else's in Asia. Nothing like a common fear to get people together. But don't expect much from the Anglo Saxon nations who have little appetite for going against their chief whip. Look more at Asia and that elusive 'Global South'. Start making those calculations of who needs what and when, and then how to get it together. And do it before Beijing does. Its remarkably adept at this.
(Tara Kartha is a former Director, National Security Council Secretariat)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
