During the peak years, more than 283,000 Indian software engineers had active H-1B work visas.
In the years since, the numbers have reduced. In some ways this was inevitable. Even without the increased restrictions on visa and green card applications, the demand for software engineers will continue to recede as the nature of work is changing. Basic coding has been automated, and this will accelerate as AI becomes more useful for tech companies.
Job losses in the tech industry have been increasing in the last two years globally. In 2025, over 122,000 tech jobs were eliminated across 278 companies and in 333 layoff events. And in 2026 (till early October 2026) over 130,000 tech jobs were eliminated across 311 companies in 351 layoff events according to an estimate by Layoffs FYI, an industry tracker. The combined total is roughly 253,000 tech jobs lost across 2025 and 2026-to-date. According to Roger Lee, founder of Layoffs.fyi, AI was cited in 33% of tech layoff events in 2026, up from just 1% in 2024.
The tech industry has a larger crisis of skills to deal with. The older skills are no longer relevant. And people with new skills are not being created fast enough to meet the demand.
This asymmetry is likely to remain for the next few years for global tech companies.
"US employers continue to face persistent talent and skills shortages and rely on the H-1B program as an essential component of a broader set of strategies to recruit, develop, and retain the workforce they need," wrote Emily M Dickens, chief administrative officer, of Washington DC based talent organization SHRM in a letter to US government.
Employers continue to face significant challenges in finding qualified talent. In 2026, SHRM research found that nearly 68% of organisations struggled to recruit for full-time positions, while 53% of HR professionals reported that hiring had become more difficult than it was a year earlier. These challenges are particularly acute in sectors such as engineering, computer science and information technology, healthcare, finance and accounting, and education.
The same research helps explain why many employers rely on H-1B sponsorship. Among organisations that use the program, 65% cited the need for highly specialised skills and expertise, 51% pointed to critical skills shortages, and 49% said they were unable to find sufficiently qualified US candidates.
A similar situation exists in the Indian tech industry. A study by industry body Nasscom has argued for deeper AI skills for Indian professionals.
Nasscom argues that academia and industry must work together to rethink talent development for an AI-native workplace. Educational institutions need to move beyond a narrow focus on coding by placing greater emphasis on engineering judgment, domain expertise, and new approaches to assessment. At the same time, employers must redesign how foundational capabilities are built, strengthen mentorship, provide more opportunities for independent problem-solving, integrate AI verification into everyday workflows, and invest continuously in developing early-career talent.
The challenge therefore for the Indian tech industry, talent managers and policy makers is to reorient the education to employment journey for a world of automation and AI.
For the professionals who will find the path to H-1B narrowing, many new opportunities are expanding.
According to industry estimates, many professionals are moving from legacy IT companies to GCCs. In recent years, GCC has expanded hiring of tech professionals. Global Capability Centers (GCCs), also known as captive centers or shared services centers, are wholly-owned subsidiaries of multinational companies that deliver technology, analytics, R&D, engineering, finance, HR, and operations services to their parent organisations.
According to a joint report by Nasscom and Zinnov, India's GCC ecosystem expanded to 2,117 centres operating through 3,728 units by FY26, employing 2.36 million professionals and generating $98.4 billion in revenue. Since FY21, the number of GCCs has increased by 32%, with 506 Forbes Global 2000 companies establishing operations in India. Artificial intelligence has become a key catalyst for this growth. Nearly half of all GCCs established since FY21 were designed with AI at their core, and more than 1,200 centres have integrated AI and machine learning capabilities into their operations. This transformation is supported by over 250 dedicated Centres of Excellence and a talent pool of approximately 250,000 AI professionals, reinforcing India's position as a strategic hub for AI-led innovation and enterprise transformation.
India's GCC workforce of 2.36 million people is four times larger than the estimated number of Indians working in the US on H-1B visas at any given time.
Apart from GCCs, the start up ecosystem including large Unicorn are increasing employment for tech professionals. While there is no official count specifically for tech professionals employed by startups, most are in hiring mode.
According to India's Startup India program, DPIIT-recognised startups had created more than 2.33 million direct jobs by FY2025-26, with total recognised startups exceeding 223,000. Most of these jobs involve knowledge of coding or AI.
Talent moves where the demand is. Mobility of professionals is dictated by growth of industries and creation of new businesses.
In previous decades, professionals moved to the US. As Indian and Asian economies grow, so will the need for professionals with relevant tech skills. The restrictions on green card and H-1B visa is not the end of the road. Professionals who may have to return from the US are likely to find ample opportunities for growth in India.
This is a time of transition, not tragedy.
Pranjal Sharma is an author and advisor
(Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author)
