Not A T20, But A Test: Why India Must Play The Long Innings With Trump

In the wake of a remarkable cricket series in England, Indians have every reason to feel that the sudden imposition of a 50% tariff by the US administration is less a calculated policy delivery and more like a fast, intimidating bouncer aimed squarely at the head. 

While the collective impact on India's GDP might seem statistically minor - a cut of some $48 billion out of a $3.8 trillion GDP is a mere nick off the bat - the effect on our exporters in key sectors like gems and jewellery, leather, textiles, and automobiles is immediate and painful. This isn't just about spreadsheets; it's about livelihoods, and what looks small on a national balance sheet can feel like a devastating hit in the districts where these industries are concentrated. Reports suggest that a lakh and a half jewellery workers in Surat have already been laid off because of orders being cancelled by American importers.

A Volatile White House

So, we have to pad up and grind out our defensive strategy. The American President's move appears not to be a product of strategic thinking but more a result of personal anger. He isn't playing the game by the rule book; he's digging up the pitch, tossing the stumps aside and demanding a round of applause. The Trump White House is volatile, prone to impulsive declarations and demands for public shows of submission that no self-respecting Indian leader can offer. 

Yet, it's crucial to remember that the game is far greater than the player, and the American system is far larger than the man currently occupying the Oval Office. Congress, state governors, business lobbies, and the vast Indian diaspora are all part of the broader pitch, and they remain far more stable and predictable. That's where our opportunity lies.

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India's strategic ties to the US are the very foundations of our batting team's strength: defence co-production, technology transfers, pharmaceutical supplies, financial flows - and the invaluable network of our high-achieving diaspora, which earns a higher median income than any ethnic group in the United States (white Americans included) and is disproportionately influential in politics and governance. True, they have been largely silent through the current crisis - except for some commendable statements by Nikki Haley, a lone voice - but that is because they fear becoming the next targets of Trump's ire if they speak out. They remain, along with these other assets, our non-negotiable pillars holding up the trophy of the Indo-US relationship. And Americans will soon wake up to their great value in the system. So we have plenty of reasons to bat on. We cannot afford to storm off the field in a huff, as the cost would be far too great. At the same time, we cannot simply capitulate to a chucker's theatrics.

The Runs We Can't Lose

This situation isn't a simple slugfest. It's an entire Test match, and we must play the long innings. True, with our competitors in these labour-intensive sectors (Thailand in gems and jewellery, Bangladesh and Indonesia in garments, Vietnam in everything) all being tariffed at 15 to 20%, it is as if the ball is swinging about alarmingly around our bats. The wicket itself - the heart of our position - represents our defence and technology partnerships. These are the runs on the board that we cannot lose. The boundary lines are trade and energy; here, we must play a nuanced, quiet game. While maintaining our vital partnership with Moscow for Russian oil and gas, we can start playing strokes to different corners of the ground by diversifying our purchases where economically feasible to do so, subtly rebalancing toward the Gulf and American LNG and showing goodwill with renewed emphasis on clean energy initiatives. Our trade negotiations with the US, currently on pause but surely soon to resume, can offer targeted tariff reductions in areas where our vital interests (like agriculture) are not involved. Developing new strokes is essential for any skilled batsman, and identifying and developing new markets in the EU, Africa and elsewhere in Asia is vital to lessen our reliance on the US. 

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The open field, the vast expanse beyond the fielders in the inner circle, is our influence in the broader American system - Congress, governors, lobbies, and the diaspora. By building our presence here, we can secure our team's success long after the current player-captain has retired from the game.

We have a few tricky reverse sweeps and unorthodox shots at our disposal: minor, reversible counter-tariffs and filings with the World Trade Organization (WTO), retaliatory tariffs that can be imposed by taking Trump's word “reciprocal” seriously and matching his 50% on a similar list of US exports. These aren't meant to be match-winning blows but rather strategic strokes to regain the initiative and keep the opposing side on its toes.

Endurance Is The Plan

The winning strategy, then, is not to take a swing for the fences but to play a long innings by building a steady, unshakeable score. India must neither rupture the relationship nor yield to pressure. The game plan is endurance: to protect our sovereignty, preserve our partnerships, and expand our long-term influence.

A final word of caution to our own commentators: let's not confuse diplomacy with Twenty20. Too many in our public discourse are treating this contest as an IPL-style grand spectacle, cheering on the "strongman" stance as if they were watching the batsman with the Purple Cap starring in an Eliminator. This is a Test series, friends, and as we have seen in England just this summer, there is even dignity in a hard-fought draw that allows you to square the series at the next attempt. The week of Cheteswar Pujara's retirement offers us a welcome reminder that the victorious Man of the Match is not always the six-hitting entertainer who creates the spectacle; it is the sober, calm, authoritative batsman with the sound defence who takes the pace bowler's blows without flinching and achieves victory through restraint and inner strength. Test matches are won not by lofting every ball high into the air but by building solid, enduring innings. India must play in that spirit.

Indians learned at the Oval how satisfying it can be for both sides in a tough contest to jointly lay their hands on the trophy. In the high-stakes India-US strategic partnership, that can still be an outcome worth fighting for.

(Shashi Tharoor is an author, former diplomat, and Member of Parliament from Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, since 2009)

Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author