Maharashtra politics is set to change irrevocably with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) consolidating its position as the dominant force in the just concluded elections to local bodies. Its victories across regions (it won 23 of the 29 corporations), including the country's plum municipality, the cash-rich Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), shows how deeply it has dug roots in a state once synonymous with the Congress, the Pawars and the Thackerays.
The implications are huge. With Maharashtra in the bag, the BJP now controls not only the biggest economic powerhouse, home to the nation's financial capital and top corporate houses, but also the second most politically influential state after Uttar Pradesh, with 48 seats in the Lok Sabha.
A Grand Reset
The eclipse of traditional players and the rise of new ones means a reset of equations across the board. Because it is a work in progress, it is difficult to predict the political, social and financial texture of the emerging new Maharashtra. However, some trends can be gauged from the results of the recent polls.
One is the rise of a Brahmin as the face of Maharashtra politics, displacing the Marathas who have had a stranglehold on the reins of power for decades. This is a state that was once led by strong Maratha leaders like YB Chavan, Vasantdada Patil and, of course, Sharad Pawar. Now it's over to Brahmin chief minister Devendra Fadnavis. He is the new star. Much of the credit for the BJP's victory goes to him. His canny political skills, his relentless campaign and his outreach to non-Maratha communities, particularly the OBCs, put the BJP on top.
His triumph puts him in the line of succession along with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Union Home Minister Amit Shah for the top position in the post-Modi era.
An Orphaned NCP
A second significant development is the impact of the verdict on the politics of the state's influential sugar belt in western Maharashtra, which gave the Marathas their power. The wipeout of both factions of the NCP, the one led by the grand old man of Maharashtra Sharad Pawar and the other led by his nephew once touted as his heir apparent Ajit Pawar, in their erstwhile impregnable fortresses of Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad, has left the community orphaned and leaderless.
Powered by the support of the OBCs who seem to have bought into the appeal of Hindutva, the BJP has succeeded in dividing and thereby weakening the Marathas. The party has had its eyes for a long time on the wealth and power of the sugar and banking cooperatives controlled by the community. The fall of the Pawars with no successor in sight in the immediate future presents the BJP with the opportunity it has been seeking to restructure a sector that has been the lifeline of Maratha power and change the face of the sugar belt, which has played a key role in state politics.
The Pawar Play
Sharad Pawar is in the winter of his life. However, Ajit Pawar is not. Unfortunately, he has taken a huge hit and endangered his position as Deputy Chief Minister in the Fadnavis-led NDA state government. He jumped ship to ally with his uncle's faction, hoping that a reunited family would retain their hold in the sugar belt. He miscalculated badly, leaving him stuck in nowhere land.
Ajit Pawar was never popular with either the BJP or the RSS. He was accommodated in the NDA only to weaken Sharad Pawar. There are already reports that ED probes against him will resume. No politician should ever be written off. However, currently, Ajit Pawar's future looks uncertain.
Mumbai Still A Challenge
A third area to watch out for is Mumbai. The politics of the capital city has always been different from the rest of Maharashtra. While the BJP can bask in the glow of ousting the Thackerays from the BMC, which the family-run Shiv Sena has controlled for nearly three decades, there are caveats that the party must be acutely aware of and which will impact future developments in the city.
The BJP won just three seats more in the BMC than what it garnered in the last election in 2017. Yes, it does have a majority in the corporation, but only in alliance with Eknath Shinde's faction of the Shiv Sena.
The BJP had hoped to decimate Uddhav Thackeray and his faction of the Shiv Sena the way it wiped out the Pawars in western Maharashtra. It failed. Uddhav Thackeray held on to his stronghold of the Marathi sections of Mumbai and has emerged as a strong opposition. In fact, it is being said that if he had aligned with the Congress instead of reuniting with his cousin, Raj Thackeray, the alliance may have given the BJP a run for its money.
Mumbai politics is up in the air. Shinde is already playing games with the BJP on the choice of the next mayor. And Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena is having a field day attacking the man who broke the party and brought down its government in 2021. It's not going to be easy for the BJP to control and dominate Mumbai the way it has managed to capture the hinterland.
Watch The AIMIM
The fourth development that could impact future politics in Maharashtra is the emergence of Assaduddin Oawaisi's AIMIM as a magnet for the Muslim community. The AIMIM posted a stunning performance in the local polls by winning 121 seats across corporations, including eight in Mumbai. It swept virtually all the Muslim-dominated belts, displacing the Congress as the first choice of the community and Samajwadi Party as the second choice.
The AIMIM's presence is likely to grow in Maharashtra, particularly if the BJP pursues its Hindutva agenda blatantly. It will be interesting to see how the AIMIM plays the game outside of its traditional base of Hyderabad.
Clearly, Maharashtra politics will continue to churn in the coming months as the BJP prepares to consolidate its gains in the runup to the 2029 Lok Sabha and assembly elections.
(The author is a senior journalist)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
