The global economy is being quietly rewritten. Supply chains are rearranging themselves, geopolitics is reshaping markets, and climate imperatives are redefining competitiveness. In this moment of flux, India's export story is gathering momentum - but momentum alone is not a strategy.
India closed FY 2024-25 with the highest exports in its history: USD 824.9 billion. Services touched USD 387.5 billion, merchandise exports (excluding petroleum) crossed USD 374 billion, and sectors from IT to design services to specialised manufacturing lifted India's global presence. These numbers matter. They show that India is no longer just participating in global trade - it is influencing it.
But the world we are exporting into is changing faster than at any time since the 1990s. An export strategy built only on volume, price advantage, or incremental efficiency simply will not survive the decade ahead.
Three global shifts define the terrain India must now navigate.
1. The Rise Of Regionalisation
Globalisation is not dead, but it is being re-drawn around "trusted partnerships." Countries are reinforcing supply chains closer home or with politically aligned partners. India's recent trade engagements - CEPA with the UAE, agreements with Australia and EFTA, and ongoing negotiations with the UK, EU, and African blocs - reflect a deliberate push to position India inside these new circles of trust. Regional integration is no longer optional; it is the new route to global competitiveness.
2. Climate Is The New Trade Policy
For Indian exporters, carbon will increasingly determine market access. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is only the beginning. Global buyers now demand traceability, renewable energy footprints, and ethical supply chains. Exporters that fail to adapt will pay a cost - not in tariffs alone, but in lost credibility. Equally, those who embrace sustainability early could turn "Made in India" into a global seal of responsibility.
3. The Digital Revolution In Trade
Cross-border commerce is being propelled by platforms, fintech, AI-led logistics, and data-driven services. India has an extraordinary advantage here: Aadhaar, UPI, Digi Locker, and ONDC are not just public infrastructure - they are export infrastructure. They make it possible for even micro-enterprises to reach global customers if policy and industry move in sync.
Indias new export model must move beyond scale and speed. It must deliver:
Competitiveness With Purpose
India's logistics costs remain among the highest in Asia. Ports still vary widely in efficiency and digitalisation. Initiatives like PM Gati Shakti and the National Logistics Policy are important, but competitiveness now requires a deeper shift: quality standards, modern testing facilities, innovation ecosystems, and skill programmes aligned with global demand. Low-cost labour once drove export success stories. In 2025, it is high-value talent, design capabilities, and supply-chain reliability that win markets.
Sustainability With Scale
ESG cannot remain a compliance tick box. The next decade will reward nations that bake sustainability into every stage of production. Green steel, renewable-powered manufacturing, and circular economy practices are not just good for the planet - they are a commercial necessity. India has an opportunity to lead here, not follow.
Inclusivity with Intent
MSMEs contribute nearly half of India's exports, yet most remain stuck in low-value tiers of global value chains. Women entrepreneurs, rural producers, artisanal sectors, and digital-first small firms must be integrated into export networks through finance, digital tools, and market access. Inclusivity is not charity - it is smart economics. Countries that broaden their export base become structurally more resilient.
For too long, India's export conversation has centred on catching up. But the global landscape now allows for something bolder: shaping standards, defining market norms, and leading in sectors where India's talent and technology already excel - AI-enabled services, green energy components, pharmaceuticals, electronics design, space technology, and climate-smart agriculture.
If India builds the right policy stack - harmonised regulation, reliable energy, modern ports, deep trade facilitation, and strong intellectual property systems, it can realistically aim to double its share of global exports over the next decade.
Leadership will not come from scale alone. It will come from the values India exports: trust, transparency, sustainability, and innovation.
India's trade architecture needs not just reforms but imagination, not just speed but strategy. Public debate on trade is often polarised between protectionist reflexes and blind liberalisation. But the truth lies in thoughtful integration - a calibrated approach that strengthens domestic capability while expanding global opportunity.
Today, as India's economy becomes more globally interwoven, the country needs more independent, data-driven, ethical thought leadership to guide its choices. Trade is no longer an economic silo - it is connected to climate action, jobs, technology, foreign policy, and even national identity.
The coming decade will test whether India chooses short-term wins or long-term foundations. Whether we build an export model that only lifts numbers, or one that lifts people. Whether we treat global trade as a scramble for advantage, or as a platform for shared progress.
India has the talent, the demographic strength, the digital backbone, and the entrepreneurial energy to lead a new kind of globalisation - one that is green, inclusive, and trustworthy.
But leadership is a choice. If India chooses innovation over inertia, collaboration over silos, and sustainability over shortcuts, it can turn this turbulent moment in global trade into an unprecedented opportunity.
The world is changing. India's exports are rising. Now our strategy must rise with them.
[The author is a former Director of the World Trade Organization (WTO)]
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
