Who Will Have The Last Laugh In Nemom, The 'Gujarat Of Kerala'

Nemom has long stopped being just another assembly constituency in Kerala's Thiruvananthapuram. It is now a political metaphor. The BJP itself famously called it the "Gujarat of Kerala," and not without reason: this is the seat that gave the party its first and only assembly win in the state in 2016.

But Nemom's story is bigger than the 2016 breakthrough. It is really the story of a Congress bastion that got reshaped, a Left base that rose after delimitation, and a BJP that learnt to grow by feeding off Congress decline. In Nemom, the contest is not just about who gains, but about who benefits when another weakens.

From Congress Bastion To Triangular Contest

Before 2011, Nemom largely leaned toward Congress. N Sakthan won it for the party in both 2001 and 2006, polling 56,648 votes and 60,884 votes, respectively, while the BJP was a distant third with 16,872 votes in 2001 and just 6,705 in 2006.

The big structural shift came after the 2008 delimitation.

The redrawn seat for 2011 included most parts of the former Thiruvananthapuram East segment, while major parts of the previous Nemom went to the newly formed Kattakada. In the first election after delimitation, CPI(M)'s V Sivankutty won with 50,076 votes, ahead of BJP's O Rajagopal's 43,661, while the UDF candidate Charupara Ravi was pushed down to 20,248. That 2011 result was the first clear warning that Nemom was no longer the old Nemom. The Congress vote collapsed enough to open a direct LDF-BJP lane.

2016 Breakthrough And BJP's Rise

By 2016, that trend hardened into history. BJP's O Rajagopal won 67,813 votes, or 47.46 per cent, defeating Sivankutty's 59,142. The UDF, which had left the seat to JD(U) ally V Surendran Pillai, managed only 13,860 votes, or 9.7 per cent. The deeper pattern remains clear: the BJP's growth in Nemom came mainly at the cost of the Congress.

The constituency has more than 1.92 lakh voters, with a majority of upper-caste Hindus, along with around 30,000 Muslim voters and roughly the same number of Nadar voters. A more detailed breakdown shows the Nair community at around 35 per cent, Muslims at about 15 per cent, with notable Ezhava, Christian, and Nadar pockets.

Upper-caste Hindu consolidation has become central to the seat's electoral design. That same demography explains why Nemom never became safely saffron even after 2016. The Muslim vote and the Nadar vote remain crucial counters to any pure Hindu consolidation model, while Congress continues to matter because even when it does not win, it can decide who loses.

2021 Reset: The Return Of The Left

In 2021, Sivankutty won back the seat with 55,837 votes against Kummanam Rajasekharan's 51,888, with K Muraleedharan polling 36,524 votes. The margin was just 3,949 votes. The electorate stood at 204,718 registered voters. Current rolls hover around 2 lakh. The BJP, however, did not disappear.

Recent Signals: BJP's Continued Push

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, Rajeev Chandrasekhar polled 61,227 votes in the Nemom assembly segment, securing 45.80 per cent of the vote and leading Shashi Tharoor by 22,126 votes. In the 2025 Thiruvananthapuram local body elections, the BJP made major gains in Nemom-area wards and secured the corporation mayor post for the first time, giving it direct control over local governance in the capital city.

During his tenure as MLA from 2016 to 2021, O Rajagopal actively championed the development of a major coaching terminal and railway yard at Nemom. Drawing on his prior experience as Union Railway Minister, he coordinated with railway authorities for land acquisition, planning, and a multi-crore project aimed at decongesting the main Thiruvananthapuram station and boosting infrastructure in the area.

However, after Rajagopal lost the seat, progress on the terminal slowed considerably, with key components scaled back and full-scale development stalled for years.

Congress Steps In: The Sabarinathan Factor

Into this high-stakes arithmetic steps Congress, which has picked KS Sabarinathan as its candidate for Nemom. Sabarinathan, 42, is an engineer-turned-lawyer, son of late veteran Congress leader and former Assembly Speaker G Karthikeyan, and married to IAS officer Divya S Iyer. He has proven assembly experience: he won the Aruvikkara bypoll in 2015, retained the seat in 2016, and in 2021 polled a strong 61,730 votes (42.37 per cent) there before losing narrowly.

His recent grassroots strength was on full display in the 2025 Thiruvananthapuram Corporation polls, where he won the Kowdiar ward with 1,119 votes.

Sabarinathan brings youthful energy (at 42 vs Sivankutty's 71), deep local Thiruvananthapuram roots through his father's legacy, and superior booth-level organisational muscle via Youth Congress and recent corporation success. His local visibility and fresher image give him the ability to consolidate Nair/upper-caste votes alongside traditional Congress support while swinging Nadar and Muslim pockets in Nemom's demography more effectively than outsiders.

The Left's Strength: Organisation And Delivery

Sivankutty, a widely popular local face affectionately known as Sivankuttyannan in Nemom, brings the added strength of his experience as Minister for General Education and Labour since 2021. He also served earlier as mayor of Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, giving him deep administrative insight and a proven record of delivering state-level schemes directly to the constituency.

Yet Sivankutty holds strong counters: his ministerial track record in education modernisation and local welfare schemes, unmatched organisational depth through the Left's cadre network, and the ability to consolidate core support in a triangular fight even amid broader anti-incumbency.

The BJP's Pitch: Development And Alignment

With the BJP now promising faster infrastructure push, especially on projects like the Nemom railway terminal and backed by a BJP-run corporation that can align local and central funds more smoothly, the development plank could sway voters looking for visible progress. Rajeev Chandrasekhar is also not seen as a politician alone. He is a technocrat and a personality which the voters perceive to be beyond the usual BJP line and could attract voters yearning for central funds.

The Vaikunda Swami Dharma Pracharana Sabha (VSDP), the social organisation of Nadars, is clearly backing Rajeev and the chairman of the organisation is part of NDA as well. If this dynamics gets strengthened and this line of thinking reflects on the ground, it hands a clear edge to Rajeev Chandrasekhar.

Who Gets The Last Laugh

Nemom will not be decided by ideology alone. It will be decided by whether the BJP, with Rajeev Chandrasekhar as its candidate, can once again turn Congress and LDF weakness into victory, or whether Congress under Sabarinathan can stay strong enough to stop that and indirectly help the Left. In Nemom, the last laugh usually goes not to the loudest campaign, but to the party that best understands the arithmetic of electoral politics.