Your morning caffeine fix may finally come with a lighter price tag.
Coffee prices are registering a global decline, with benchmark Arabica and Robusta varieties touching multi-month lows, data reviewed by NDTV Profit has shown.
Arabica coffee futures - the benchmark for high-quality coffee - have dropped over 21% while Robusta - a key component in instant coffee blends - has crashed nearly 24.4% in the last seven weeks. Brazil and Vietnam are the world's largest producers of Arabica and Robusta coffee beans, respectively.
The data showed that Arabica is now trading near a five-month low, and Robusta near its lowest point in over a year.
This means your morning cup is definitely getting cheaper.
However, while lower prices may support bottom lines, the key question is whether consumer-facing companies will pass on the benefit. So far, there has been no major hike in retail coffee prices despite previous inflationary pressures, which means that any reduction now may be modest or delayed.
Brazil and Vietnam are expected to harvest larger crops this year, the data showed.
Recently, Brazilian consultancy Safras & Mercado hiked its fiscal 2026 production estimate for Arabica to 40 million bags, up 4.3% from the previous projection. Robusta output is now seen rising 7.8% to nearly 26 million bags.
It is this surge in supply that has outpaced demand, putting sharp downward pressure on prices. Improved weather has played a key role in reversing the drought-hit trends of last year, especially in Brazil.
Even though the prices are tumbling, the outlook is not without risks.
The European Union's new deforestation regulation - mandating traceability of agricultural imports like coffee - could raise compliance costs for producers and, by extension, global supply chains. Fortunately, its implementation has been deferred until at least December 2025.
Besides, sudden weather changes in Brazil and Vietnam, shipping container shortages and political instability in producing regions may likely hamper and disrupt production.
Despite these challenges, the current slump in global coffee prices is seen as a potential input cost tailwind for companies like Tata Consumer Products Ltd., CCL Products Ltd., Nestle India Ltd., Bombay Burmah Trading Corp., and Vintage Coffee.
In its recent earnings call, CCL Products signalled expectations of stronger margins and volume recovery if the coffee crop continues to normalise. Tata Consumer Products, which flagged high input cost inflation as a drag on margins in the March quarter earlier, may also benefit from the easing trend.
