- The Iran war may last long with Khamenei's son leading, causing energy shocks globally, said Martin Wolf
- US and Israel cannot quickly neutralize Iran or reopen Gulf tanker routes under fire, he said
- Trump's goal of Iran's surrender requires troops the US lacks and may alienate Iranians, he said
The Iran war might go on for a long time, especially with Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son at its head. The consequence will be a very strong energy shock for the rest of the world, Martin Wolf - the Chief Economic Commentator of The Financial Times -- told NDTV today in an exclusive interview. Neither will Khamenei's son be disposed to trust the US and Israel, nor can they effectively "defang Iran" within a short time or for the US to "open up Gulf" and run tankers, he said.
The professed aim of US President Donald Trump - complete surrender of Iran - will involve the deployment of hundreds of thousands of troops which the US does not have and if they did, their presence would not have pleased even those against the regime in Iran. "The whole thing to me now feels like fantasy games, terrifying. I hope I am wrong but I don't see how this ends because I don't see any rationality," he added.
Read: One Tiny Island Is Still Sneaking Iran's Oil Past Trump's Missiles
Oil prices soared past $100 a barrel today, as the US-Israel conflict with Iran escalated and disrupted key supply routes in the Strait of Hormuz. It, in turn, caused sharp declines in global stock markets and sent the rupee to a record low.
The crucial question in these circumstances, Wolfe said, is whether it is possible in a reasonable time for Iran to run out of the means to strike.
"I would not dream of claiming to be to judge whether Iran can be stopped from building all the drones, run out of its stocks of missiles, and so becomes, as it were, from a military point of view, in this regard, defunct. And if it is not defunct, then I don't see how they open the Gulf. You can't run tankers through it under fire," he said.
The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the country's supreme leader, makes the prospects of peace tougher.
"Last week I hoped that Iran might appoint somebody who would be less fanatical than Khamenei and might indicate a willingness to achieve... a genuine ceasefire, in which they promise not to pursue the nuclear weapon programme... and somewhat withdraw support from their proxies in the Arab world. And in return, America and Israel would say, we are no longer at war with you," Wolf said.
Read: Explained: Iran's Endurance Strategy Amid War With US, Israel
"Now they have appointed, as I understand it, or about to appoint a new supreme leader who's not only the son of Khamenei, but has lost his entire family. The idea that he will do such a deal strikes me as not very plausible," he said.
He said he has been around enough wars to know that when you start a war and if you have no idea how it will end, it could go on for a very, very long time.
"Vietnam was like that... So that's the first point. The second point, obviously, is the consequences for the Gulf and therefore for the world economy," Wolf said.
