In 2023, when the Congress won a historic mandate in Karnataka, it was a decisive vote for change and stability. What followed the verdict was the Siddaramaiah-DKS power play. It is shadow boxing that has lasted to this day, just a few days short of three years. While Karnataka is waiting to explode again, a similar tussle could surface in Kerala. The moot question now -- is the Congress all set to create a similar situation in Kerala after ousting the Left with such a historic mandate?
The UDF's emphatic victory - a clear majority with a sweeping performance across central Kerala, Travancore and making deep inroads even in traditional Left strongholds winning 102 of the 140 seats -- was seen as a decisive verdict for change and political stability.
Every moment in that election campaign, the question that was asked is who will be the Chief Ministerial face? Leader of Opposition VD Satheesan led the charge from the front with a statewide Yatra. He was clear about his ambition and is arguably the most powerful mass leader for the party in the state.
Ramesh Chennithala was made the campaign committee in-charge. He is the eternal loyalist. He is much older and senior, but also well past his prime.
Both leaders, asked who would be the party's Chief Ministerial face, clearly said the "High Command" will decide. Both have made their ambitions for the post open.
Rahul Gandhi's confidante and Alappuzha Member of Lok Sabha KC Venugopal was always and is a power centre in the party. As an MP, Venugopal, too, side-stepped the question of the Chief Minister post. It was clear he was also in the race.
The Congress justified its indecision with the retort "we have a large pool of talent in the party". Rahul Gandhi even declared in Thiruvananthapuram that "they all dance well individually and must learn to dance together".
Dancing together is not just about winning elections, but also running a government respecting the mandate of the people. The top leadership cannot be in two minds. It needs to be decisive, take risk and back one person clearly. Everyone else has to fall in line.
Karnataka has been a mess in terms of governance because of the confusion. There has been no cabinet reshuffle, no revisiting of administration and no roadmap for the future as the party has kept DK Shivakumar eternally waiting.
DKS was instrumental in the 2023 mandate and has been made to wait endlessly for his reward.
It is now too late to bite the Karnataka bullet and enough damage has been done. But it is important not to let a similar situation develop in Kerala. Any rotational Chief Minister formula is a bad formula and can result in administrative paralysis and confusion. It will only delay an ugly power struggle.
Unlike Karnataka where Shivakumar and Siddaramaiah represent different caste coalitions -- DKS is an OBC-Vokkaliga caste strongman and Siddaramaiah is from the Kuruba caste and represents a larger social coalition called Ahinda - in Kerala all three candidates are from the Nair caste. Arguably, the decision in Kerala is easier to make and the only requisite is decisiveness of the high command.
VD Satheesan (VDS) is clearly the popular choice. Ramesh Chennithala had led the charge in 2021 and failed, VDS led the charge in 2026 and won the mandate. He also has the backing of the biggest ally -- the IUML (Indian Union Muslim League) -- and the ideological lobbies.
He, however, can be authoritative and robust enough to ruffle feathers. Once in the chair, he may not dance to others' tunes. It will also be tough to appease him if he is denied the chair. He has a belligerent streak and is a grass-root fighter. Ramesh Chennithala may be softer, older loyalist, but does not have a huge hold on the MLAs.
On the other hand, KC Venugopal is too close to the party high command and he is a loyalist. He has his strengths and he has a hold over a section of the MLAs and the Congress top leadership.
The MLAs are now caught between the top three leaders and the power play needs to be settled with categorical clarity. The fact that both KCV and VDS are frontrunners and have hold over their section of MLAs means the choice has to have both clearly on board. Otherwise, it will only lead to instability and infighting.
Kerala is the Congress's last bastion and while the party did well to avert infighting and ensure a stupendous victory, it needs to do the same to ensure that the mandate is respected and not mess it up like Karnataka.
