Analysis: In Vijay's Delicate Coalition Tango, DMK Holds Some Strings

After a long campaign and sustained efforts to stitch together a coalition, TVK Chief C Joseph Vijay will finally be the chief minister of Tamil Nadu. He has already proven his numbers before the Governor and will have to prove his majority on the floor of the state Assembly after being sworn in. 

It's the support of the VCK and IUML - two MLAs each - that finally gave the TVK the numbers to stake claim but, intriguingly, the two parties claim they are supporting Vijay without severing all ties with the DMK, the principal opponent to the TVK. 

In fact, the VCK has said on the record that it is with the DMK-led alliance, but is supporting the actor-turned-politician because it "does not want a constitutional crisis and President's Rule in the state". Thol Thirumavalavan, the VCK supremo, even met MK Stalin yesterday and said, "When I communicated our decision to support the TVK, Stalin did not stop us." The IUML has also sent out a similar message of proximity to the DMK while supporting a TVK government.

This must be a first in Indian politics - two small parties are supporting the TVK to form a government without severing their ties with the principal opposition party, the DMK. The Vijay government is dependent on the VCK and IUML for numbers, and the last 72 hours have been proof of - and a lesson in - conniving, convoluted and cunning political machinations for the TVK.

The party has had to make four trips to the Lok Bhavan, been made to wait for letters of support and introduced to the grittier side of politics. 

Both Here And There

To make it amply clear, the TVK has the support of 120 MLAs now (TVK 107, Congress 5, Left 4, and VCK and IUML 2 each). While the Left categorically said it refused to be part of any experiment by the DMK and AIADMK to cobble together numbers to keep the TVK out, it also waited for the DMK high-level meeting to decide on such an experiment before announcing its decision. 

It's only the Congress that has spontaneously and aggressively severed its ties with the DMK. However, Congress MLAs have close linkages to the DMK and were funded and backed by the party for years.

This leaves a situation where a Vijay 'Sarkar' is dependent on allies who still seem too close for comfort to the DMK, which is the principal opposition party and keen to destroy the TVK. The animosity between the DMK and TVK has been deep. The only reason the DMK did not succeed in an experiment to form an alliance with the AIADMK and keep the TVK out is that a large section of the party pushed back hard. It was also only after that effort failed that the Left and others backed the TVK.

This clearly shows that the third-largest party in the state Assembly - the AIADMK with 47 seats - and the second-largest party - the DMK with 59 MLAs - are willing to work together to oust the TVK. However, at the moment, the public sentiment and the mandate are so clearly in favour of the TVK that any experiment to keep Vijay from taking oath would backfire badly.

This is the only reason no political party is stopping a Vijay 'Sarkar'. Even the BJP has been unhappy with a Congress alliance being in power and preferred a TVK-AIADMK alliance. Vijay, however,  has walked his own path and seems firm on it.

For all the loud claims of ideological commitment and core beliefs as the cornerstone of their politics, the DMK and AIADMK have shown that the lust for power, and a quest for survival, can bring even the two of them to the table.

People On The Inside

While Vijay will prove his majority on the floor of the House, as toppling his government now would be very bad optics for the DMK, the grand old Dravidian party will be watching like a hawk for an opportune moment to undo Vijay. It now has its old allies on the inside, and the superstar will have to be wary.

The TVK strategy seems to be to run a good government with the numbers they have and then go back to the people for a decisive mandate. This approach would mean the annihilation of the established forces, and that makes it a battle for survival for each one of them.

Sections of the AIADMK are also likely to gravitate towards the TVK. The AIADMK has some veterans, and their decision will depend on what Vijay offers them. 

Vijay can also not be the star politicians come to; he needs to be the politician who goes and gets the numbers on his side.

The last two days have been a baptism by fire and an education for him that governments are not formed by sitting at home and allies are not won by star power. He had to meet them and reach out to them. He had to go repeatedly to the Lok Bhavan, and he was shown a trailer of what real politics is and how it's played.

Evolution

If that's how tough it was to form a government, running one successfully is an even more daunting task, especially since it's a coalition - and a coalition where his most bitter rivals seem to hold some strings.

Vijay the chief minister will have his task cut out. Every mistake and every move will be closely watched. He's got an enormous mandate and public support now, but how he evolves from being a star to being a leader of the people and a worthy chief minister will decide how long the sentiment stays in his favour.

He's a great dancer in his films, but he will now have to learn the art of a coalition tango.