The Prime Minister will hold a rally in Madurankatham near Chennai on Friday, signalling the NDA's intent to project itself as the only political formation capable of taking on the ruling DMK in Tamil Nadu in the upcoming Assembly elections. Sources say the timing is strategic, with the BJP aiming to seize a perceived political opening and capitalise on what it believes is a drop in popularity of actor Vijay's Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) since his last major rally in Erode in mid-December.
Far from being a routine public meeting, the rally has become the centrepiece of an intense round of alliance negotiations that underscore both the NDA's ambition and the delicate nature of its electoral arithmetic. Since Tuesday night, senior BJP leaders led by Union Minister Piyush Goyal have been holding marathon discussions in Chennai, racing to stitch together a broad-based coalition and resolve competing seat demands ahead of the Prime Minister's visit.
The urgency has been heightened by political developments pulling the balance in opposite directions. On the positive side for the NDA, the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam, led by TTV Dhinakaran, formally rejoined the alliance this week, adding momentum to the BJP's efforts to present a consolidated Opposition front. Goyal has been engaging with a wide range of political players, including long-standing allies, returning partners and fence-sitters still weighing their options.
Talks are also underway with the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and the OPS faction, both of which have been in touch with the DMK as well. NDA leaders, however, say they remain hopeful of bringing both back into the fold, arguing that the political logic of a united anti-DMK front ultimately favours the NDA.
The immediate objective, BJP leaders say, is to ensure that the stage on which PM Modi will stand reflects not just numerical strength but political momentum. The aim is to send a clear signal that the NDA, led in the state by the AIADMK, has managed to pull together a fractured Opposition space. The current alliance includes the AIADMK headed by Edappadi K Palaniswami, Anbumani Ramadoss' faction of the Pattali Makkal Katchi, GK Vasan's Tamil Maanila Congress, and smaller parties and outfits led by figures such as AC Shanmugham, Paarivendhar and John Pandian.
BJP's Share
Behind this outward show of unity, however, lies a dense web of demands and counter-demands, all shaped by one politically sensitive number: The 56 (of 234) Assembly seats the BJP is seeking from the AIADMK as its share of the alliance. Dhinakaran's induction is also being seen as a political signal to the influential Thevar community that could be feeling sidelined with the elevation of EPS, who hails from the Gounder community.
The BJP's broader strategic push has also been guided by signals from the national leadership.
At a recent meeting in Trichy, Union Home Minister Amit Shah was quoted by sources as having asked BJP leaders in Tamil Nadu to start preparing to contest around 40 seats, identify potential candidates and work towards stitching together an alliance of all non-UPA and anti-DMK forces in the state. The message, leaders say, was to move from exploratory talks to concrete electoral preparation.
Part of this urgency stems from the NDA's assessment of the current political moment. With Vijay losing crucial campaigning time due to his film being caught in legal hurdles and his own political trajectory complicated by CBI summons in the Karur stampede case, NDA leaders believe this is the best window to consolidate anti-incumbency votes. At the same time, they remain aware that TVK could end up cutting into both DMK and NDA vote bases if it contests independently.
Much, therefore, depends on how Vijay and TVK respond in the weeks ahead. Whether they seek to become part of a larger alliance, negotiate a limited understanding or choose to fight solo will have significant implications. A standalone fight would mean that a party still awaiting a recognised symbol would have to brace for a tough contest, not just against a well-entrenched DMK but also an expanded NDA alliance determined to consolidate votes in its favour.
