- The chance to control BMC may slip through the fingers of Thackeray cousins, exit polls indicate
- The exit polls predict a sweeping win for the Mahayuti in the 227-ward BMC
- The Thackerays' alliance is likely to secure 49% vote share among Marathi speakers, per Axis My India
Around 20 days ago, cousins Uddhav and Raj Thackeray formally declared a reunion for the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), after a 20-year estrangement. Their campaign focused on the narrative that Mumbai's identity is under threat, positioning themselves as the sole protectors of local interests against the BJP-led Mahayuti government.
However, according to exit poll predictions, the Thackeray brothers might fail to overcome the challenge from the BJP-Eknath Shinde Shiv Sena combine. Four exit polls indicate that the chance to control India's richest municipal body may slip through their fingers. BMC, along with 28 other municipal corporations, went to the polls on Thursday; votes will be counted on Friday.
While the mandate may favour the ruling alliance, the Thackerays' campaign centred on 'Marathi manoos' and 'Marathi pride' seems to have resonated deeply with the local community, according to Axis My Poll. It suggests that Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT) and Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) combine is likely to secure a significant 49 per cent vote share among Marathi speakers.
Health warning: Exit polls don't always get it right.
Despite this, the broader mandate is projected for the state's ruling Mahayuti alliance by four exit polls - Axis My India, JVC, Sakal Poll and Janmat Polls.
While Axis My India predicted around 131-151 seats, JVC predicted 138 seats for the BJP and Shinde's Shiv Sena in the 227-ward body. A party or alliance needs 114 seats for a simple majority.
These same two polls predicted between 58-68 seats for the combined force of the UBT-MNS alliance.
The Sakal Poll has predicted 119 seats for the Mahayuti and 75 for UBT. Janmat Polls indicates 138 seats for the BJP-Sena, while giving the UBT, MNS, and Sharad Pawar's NCP 62 seats.
The exit polls have restricted the Congress to between 20 and 23 seats.
Demographic and Community Trends
According to Axis My India data, women and young voters predominantly sided with the Mahayuti. While the UBT alliance led among Marathis, Muslims, and Christians, the BJP-led alliance dominated among North Indian, South Indian, Gujarati, and Rajasthani voters.
Election Day Marred by Allegations
Polling concluded with around 50 per cent turnout across Mumbai's 1,700 candidates. The day was marked by sharp allegations from the Thackeray cousins against the State Election Commission (SEC). They claimed the indelible ink used on voters' fingers could be easily erased.
"This is not the erasing of ink, but the erasing of democracy," Uddhav Thackeray remarked.
have projected a clear and decisive mandate for the BJP and Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena in the elections held after nine years, which includes a four-year delay. The last BMC elections were held in 2017.
A Dramatically Different Landscape
The political landscape in 2026 is a far cry from the 2017 elections. Back then, the Shiv Sena was united, and the Thackeray cousins were bitter rivals. Now, they are political comrades, and the polls come four years after a massive faction led by Eknath Shinde broke away from the Sena and went on to claim the party's name and symbol.
In 2017, the united Shiv Sena won 84 seats, eventually reaching a strength of 99. Today, 44 of those former corporators are with Eknath Shinde, while 55 remain with Uddhav Thackeray's Shiv Sena (UBT).
The BMC elections faced delays due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Supreme Court rulings on OBC reservations, and issues related to ward delimitation.
The Root of the Rift
The cousins' estrangement dates back to 2003, when Balasaheb Thackeray named Uddhav as his heir and the party's working president. This sidelined Raj Thackeray, who was widely considered the natural successor. After years of friction, most notably over the "Me Mumbaikar" initiative, Raj left to form the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) in 2006.
When asked earlier this week if this new alliance would last, Uddhav Thackeray told NDTV, "When we were not together, you had questions. Now that we are together, why are you worrying about the future?"
