- Local poll results enthused the ruling alliance in Maharashtra and set off alarm bells within opposition camp
- Sources indicate that Sanjay Raut called Rahul Gandhi today to discuss a joint strategy for the BMC polls
- During the conversation, the Sena MP reportedly insisted on a collective fight against the BJP
The political climate in Maharashtra has shifted significantly in just 24 hours. While Sunday's local body election results have enthused the ruling alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), they have also set off alarm bells within the opposition camp. The latest developments suggest that the BJP's strong performance has forced the opposition to reconsider the cracks in its own alliance.
Sources indicate that Sanjay Raut, a senior leader of the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena faction - which won nine seats in the local polls - called Rahul Gandhi today to discuss a joint strategy for the upcoming Mumbai civic body elections. The move comes as the Congress emerged as the strongest performer among the constituents of the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the recent local polls.
Given the current stakes, the call appears to be more than a mere courtesy; it seems like a survival strategy ahead of the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections scheduled for January 15. During the conversation, the Sena MP reportedly insisted on a collective fight against the BJP.
A Shift In Stance
This outreach marks a notable pivot. Until recently, both the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress had expressed intentions to contest the upcoming polls independently. Raut himself had previously suggested he was ready to go solo, stating, "Whoever wants to come, can come; otherwise, we will fight alone."
However, the outreach to Gandhi indicates that the Uddhav Thackeray faction recognises the need for the Congress's support to halt the momentum of Eknath Shinde's Shiv Sena, which is currently benefiting from its alliance with the BJP.
Sanjay Raut's primary strategic dilemma involves balancing a potential partnership with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and maintaining an alliance with the Congress. The Congress has made it clear that it will not share a platform with the MNS due to ideological differences.
While Raut had earlier hinted at a "Thackeray brothers" reunion regardless of the Congress, Sunday's results suggest that without Congress's vote share, it may be impossible for the Thackeray factions to defeat the BJP-Shinde combine. Raut's recent statement - "If we want to defeat the BJP, we must fight together" - reflects this new reality.
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The Mumbai Challenge
Prior to its split, the Shiv Sena controlled the BMC for 25 years. In Maharashtra politics, control of the BMC is often equated with control of the state. While the BJP wants to end the Thackeray family's dominance in the BMC at any cost, for Uddhav Thackeray, these elections represent a final opportunity to regain lost credibility and protect his party's base.
To counter the division of the Marathi vote following the party split, the Thackeray faction has considered joining forces with Raj Thackeray. However, this poses a risk to the party's standing with Muslim and North Indian voters. In recent years, the proportion of Marathi voters in Mumbai has declined, making the support of minority communities essential for victory. And with MNS by its side and without the support of the Congress, winning Muslim votes could be a herculean task for the party, courtesy of many remarks by Raj Thackeray targeting the community.
The Congress has traditionally held the support of North Indian and Muslim voters in the city. Uddhav Thackeray is aware that winning solely on the Marathi plank is difficult; he requires the secular vote bank that the Congress provides.
Conversely, the Congress is reportedly displeased with the closeness between the two Thackeray cousins. The party previously announced it would contest the Mumbai elections alone, fearing that the MNS's "anti-North Indian" image would alienate its core supporters. Several Congress leaders have stated they cannot align with the MNS due to its aggressive stance against migrants, which conflicts with the Congress ideology.
Several Congress leaders have said they cannot align with the MNS due to its aggressive stance against North Indian migrants, which conflicts with its ideology and voter base in Mumbai.
Ultimately, if the Congress chooses to go solo, the resulting division of opposition votes could directly benefit the BJP-Shinde alliance.
Hence, keeping the MVA flock together has emerged as the biggest challenge and necessity for the opposition ahead of the BMC polls.
