- Kerala lacks a Chief Ministerial candidate a week after election results declared
- Four Congress leaders including Venugopal and Satheesan are vying for the top post
- Venugopal is favored by MLAs and Rahul Gandhi; Satheesan is backed by the public and ally IUML
Kerala does not have a Chief Ministerial candidate almost a week after the election results were declared. The reason being the silent tug of war within the Congress, with four aspirants in the running for the top job. Leading the list is party general secretary KC Venugopal, followed by VD Satheesan and senior Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala. The state Congress chief K Sudhakaran, also considers himself a contender.
The party is still in the consultations process, which was set off by two senior leaders - Ajay Maken and Mukul Wasnik - sent to the state to serve as observers.
According to their reports, submitted after consultations with the MLAs and the party's local leaders, a majority of the MLAs favor Venugopal, who also happens to be the choice of senior party leader Rahul Gandhi. But there is considerable pushback from the second-in-line VD Satheesan, who was the Congress Legislative Party leader.
While KC Venugopal is reportedly the choice of the MLAs, VD Satheesan appears to be the choice of the public. Congress workers in Kerala have been taking to the streets to hold rallies in support of Satheesan - a move that has displeased the central leaders, who instructed Satheesan to call off such demonstrations.
There are more complications. In Kerala's 140-member assembly, the UDF secured 102 seats, but not all of these went to the Congress.
The party has 63 MLAs, while the Indian Union Muslim League or IUML has 22 seats. The remaining seats were won by other constituent parties. Consequently, the opinion of the IUML carries significant weight.
The Congress allies argue that Satheesan had fought the battle against the Left Front on the ground and so has the rightful claim to the Chief Minister's post.
Perceiving that the matter had reached an impasse, the central leadership had summoned the Kerala leaders to Delhi.
The Congress High Command is now caught in a bind.
It is now being suggested that Sonia Gandhi, AK Antony, and the other constituent parties of the UDF will also be involved in the process of selecting the Chief Minister.
If Venugopal is appointed Chief Minister, it would involve two by-elections - one for a Lok Sabha seat and another for an assembly seat. (Venugopal is the Member of Parliament for Alappuzha.
It is also being suggested that Rahul Gandhi might assign Venugopal an even more prominent position within the Congress. Mallikarjun Kharge's tenure as Congress President is set to conclude next year.
The other factor to consider is the Wayanad Lok Sabha constituency, currently represented by Priyanka Gandhi, where Muslim voters constitute over 45 per cent of the electorate. So upsetting them by not taking their choice into consideration is a risk fir the Congress.
Venugopal has played the strategic card of securing the support of the MLAs. Now, it is up to Rahul Gandhi to decide whether or not he wishes to let him handle the state. Many Congress leaders in Delhi are keen to see Venugopal leave so they may have a chance at the General Secretary (Organisation) post.
Due to these various factors, the party's top rung is reluctant to make a hasty decision, as any such move could have far-reaching consequences. The term of the Kerala Legislative is on till May 23, which provides the party with time to arrive at a decision.
