- Growing ocean heat in the central and eastern tropical Pacific signals a strong El Nino event
- NOAA estimates over 90% chance of a very strong El Nino in late 2026 and early 2027
- El Nino expected to peak between November and February, impacting global weather patterns
A growing body of observational data and climate model projections point to a significant build-up of ocean heat across the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.
Leading global climate agencies, including the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) are warning that the ongoing El Nino cycle is on track to enter the "strong" category, with its peak intensity expected towards the end of the year, particularly during November and December.
Commenting on the trends and strength of El Nino, Anushman, Director, Water Resources, at TERI (The Energy and Resources Institute), highlighted the rarity of the developing system, saying the current forecasts point to an exceptionally strong El Nino in late 2026.
He said NOAA's latest assessment puts the probability of a very strong El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter at over 90 per cent. It alsi estimates a 69 per cent chance of October-December 2026 surpassing the strength of the strongest El Nino events recorded in the past.
The ocean is already showing substantial warming across the tropical Pacific, with significant subsurface heat content, while the atmospheric circulation is also displaying patterns consistent with a strengthening El Nino, he said.
He further said November-December is a plausible period for peak intensity as El Nino typically peaks between November and February. "While the current projections point to an exceptionally strong El Nino, its precise intensity will become clearer as we move through the peak phase of the event."
NDTV also spoke to GP Sharma, president of Meteorology and Climate Change at SkyMet Weather, who emphasised on the accelerating pace towards maximum intensity.
"This exceptionally rapid warming during the summer is a strong signal that El Nino could become one of the strongest, if not the strongest, on record by late 2026 and the winter of 2027. El Nino is currently still in its developing phase and is expected to peak after October 2026, before persisting through early spring 2027. There is an increased risk of weaker rainfall during the latter part of the monsoon season, particularly in September and October 2026. The Western Pacific, with the potential for increased storm activity, continues to disrupt and unsettle monsoon wind patterns over the Bay of Bengal," he said.
Echoing these concerns at the international level, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged immediate global preparation as climate modelling confirms the rapid build-up:
"El Nino is not just on our doorstep -- it is inside the house and turning up the heat. And this is only a warm-up act. El Nino is strengthening -- adding fuel to a planet already on fire with scorching heat domes, apocalyptic wildfires and record hot seas."
Stressing the crucial window for global action, WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo highlighted the urgency of utilising early warning forecasts:
"This El Nino developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold. The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow."
SkyMet Weather's research and data show that the system will finalise its transition to a strong El Nino category in August, creating a sustained multi-month window for ocean heat to feed into the atmosphere before the winter peak.
What to Expect
When an El Nino reaches these extreme levels, it completely impacts global weather systems.
Drought and Dry Spells: The Indian subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Southern and Eastern Australia, Southern Central America, and Northern Europe face a high risk of weak monsoons and extended droughts.
Torrents and Flooding: The Greater Horn of Africa, Western North America, Southeastern South America, Southern Europe, and Central Asia are on high alert for heavy rainfall, storms, and flash flooding.
As experts warn against a strengthening El Nino event, efforts must be centred around not just tackling the event but also preparing for it months in advance.
