Eknath Shinde Gains Strength. How It Will Affect BJP, Shiv Sena Ties

Six MPs from the Shiv Sena (UBT) are all set to formally join the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. They have already submitted a letter to Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. The crossover is now merely a formality, likely to be completed next week.

For Maharashtra politics, the development is expected to have far-reaching consequences. Following the crossover, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena's strength in the Lok Sabha will rise to 13. 

In terms of numerical strength in the Lok Sabha, it will be on par with the Congress in Maharashtra, which had won 13 seats of the state in the 2024 general election.

The BJP will slip to the third position with nine Lok Sabha seats. 
The scenario is unlikely to please the BJP, given that it has established itself as the "big brother" in the state. 

Recovering from the setback in the Lok Sabha elections, the party delivered its best-ever performance in the subsequent assembly elections, winning 132 seats.

Moreover, the BJP achieved significant success in local body elections under Fadnavis's leadership. 

Of a total of 6,859 ward seats across municipal councils and nagar panchayats, the BJP won 3,091 on its own.

Of the 288 posts for municipal council and nagar panchayat presidents, the BJP secured 117, the Shinde faction of Shiv Sena won 53, and the NCP won 37. The BJP captured the mayoral posts in a majority of the 29 municipal corporations, including the prestigious BMC mayoralty. 

Eknath Shinde maintained his dominance in Thane and Kalyan-Dombivli.

The current rebellion by six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs has the BJP's backing, sources have indicated. 

The BJP gave the green signal to Shinde for this "Operation Tiger" specifically to garner the two-thirds majority needed to push through the constitutional amendment bill on delimitation that's part of the women's reservation package during the monsoon session. 

Visiting Maharashtra a day after the Shiv Sena's foundation day event, Home Minister Amit Shah boosted Eknath Shinde's morale by declaring that there is now only one Shiv Sena. 

Smiling, he remarked, "Earlier, one had to prefix 'Shinde faction' to Eknath Shinde's name, but now only one 'Shiv Sena' remains; no other faction exists."

Ahead of the monsoon session, a similar operation involving Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress took place in West Bengal. 

Under the BJP's watch, 20 of Trinamool's 28 MPs broke away to merge with an obscure political party, the NCPI. 

A decision from the Speaker regarding this matter is currently awaited.

Reports of differences between Eknath Shinde and Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis frequently surface in Maharashtra politics. 

It is said during his visits to Delhi, Shinde raises these contentious issues with the BJP high command, especially as his 
supporters remain disappointed that he did not secure the Chief Minister's post in 2024. But given the changed circumstances, Shinde's bargaining power is likely to increase. 

The BJP has already had a taste of Shinde's assertive stance, as he previously pressured the party to secure the maximum possible number of seats for his faction in both Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

It is also likely that, with 13 MPs, Shinde has his sights set on the potential reshuffle of the Modi Council of Ministers. 

Currently, his party holds only one ministry. Based on their tally of seven MPs, they were allocated a berth of Minister of State (Independent Charge).

Party leader Prataprao Jadhav was appointed the Minister of AYUSH. 
But with 13 MPs now in his camp, Shinde is unlikely to miss the opportunity to press for a bigger share in the Union Cabinet. 

Currently, the Telugu Desam Party (with 16 MPs) and the Janata Dal (United) (with 12 MPs) each hold one Cabinet-rank post and one Minister of State post.

Given this scenario, the Shiv Sena has a legitimate claim to a Cabinet berth. 

There is also talk of the rebel Trinamool MPs securing one Cabinet post and one Minister of State post under a similar formula. 

Eye on 2029

Shinde is not merely focused on bolstering his influence at the Centre. 

He is also actively implementing a strategy to expand the party's footprint within the state. His son, MP Shrikant Shinde, is currently touring 160 assembly constituencies across the state. Simultaneously, the party has thrown its full weight into local body elections. Shinde also aims to strengthen the organisation, which is why he has his sights set on the organisational structure of the Shiv Sena (UBT). 

There is talk of a significant number of corporators defecting from the Brihanmumbai Corporation. 

Sources said Shinde intends to expand his party into rural areas alongside Mumbai and its surrounding regions. 

He wishes to provide opportunities to leaders who deliver results. This is why, when a demand for his son's promotion was raised during the party's foundation day event, he dismissed it, saying such advancement would depend on his performance. 

This also serves as a message to Shiv Sena (UBT) leaders, as six rebel MPs are reportedly disgruntled over their disagreement with Uddhav Thackeray's decision to promote Aaditya Thackeray.

In this manner, Shinde is strengthening the party for the 2029 Lok Sabha and assembly elections. 

There has historically been a tussle between the BJP and the undivided Shiv Sena regarding the pole position in the state, which boils down to the question of how many seats each party contests in an election.

When the formal Shiv Sena-BJP alliance was formed in 1989, the BJP contested 22 Lok Sabha seats while the Shiv Sena contested just six. 

But by 2019, the BJP was contesting 25 seats and the Shiv Sena 23. 

Consequently, the BJP had to part with some of its strongholds; for instance, constituencies like Kalyan and South Mumbai went to the Shiv Sena.

Eknath Shinde likely remembers the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, when the BJP contested 28 of the state's 48 seats while his faction was allotted only 15. While the BJP managed to win just 9 of the 28 seats it contested - a strike rate of 32 per cent - the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) won 7 out of 15, achieving a strike rate of 46.66 per cent. 

The NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) was allocated four seats but won only one, while the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha failed to win the single seat allotted to it.

However, a new challenge lies ahead. 

Three of the six Shiv Sena (UBT) MPs currently joining Shinde had defeated Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) candidates in the previous Lok Sabha elections. 

From Hingoli, Nagesh Patil-Ashtikar defeated Shiv Sena (Shinde faction)'s Baburao Kadam Kohlikar by a massive margin of 216,335 votes. 

Meanwhile, Sanjay Deshmukh (Yavatmal-Washim) defeated Rajashree Patil (Shinde faction) by 94,473 votes, and Bhausaheb (Shirdi) defeated Sadashiv Lokhande (Shinde faction) by 50,529 votes. 

Among the remaining three, Omprakash Rajenimbalkar (Dharashiv) recorded the biggest victory, defeating Archana Patil (NCP-Ajit Pawar faction) by a huge margin of 329,846 votes. 

Sanjay Jadhav (Parbhani) defeated Mahayuti-backed Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) chief Mahadev Jankar by 134,061 votes. Additionally, Sanjay Dina Patil (Mumbai North East) defeated BJP candidate Mihir Kotecha by 29,861 votes in a closely contested battle.

A Shiv Sena leader said all six MPs are joining on the condition that they be given tickets for the next Lok Sabha election. The leader claims that the BJP has also agreed to this arrangement. 

However, should this happen, the Shiv Sena would stake claim to 25 seats for the 2029 Lok Sabha elections. This would demonstrate Shinde's increased clout - something the BJP might find difficult to ignore. 

That said, another leader suggests that by then, elections might be held on basis of an increased number of seats following delimitation, making it easier to accommodate Shinde. 

Nevertheless, it is certain that Shinde's growing strength following recent developments could lead to new shifts within the Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra.