As the BJP gears up for 'Mission 2029' locking down party chief Nitin Nabin's team, speculation about a reshuffle of ministers in the Union government has intensified.
It is believed that a reshuffle could take place in view of the coming round of assembly elections and a need to infuse energy into the cabinet.
Sources said the reshuffle will be done taking into account assembly elections due in seven states. 2027 will see polls in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Goa, Punjab, Manipur, Gujarat, and Himachal Pradesh.
Although Uttar Pradesh is already represented in the Union Council of Ministers with due regard for caste and regional equations, the possibility of a reshuffle based on performance cannot be ruled out.
Currently, there is no Brahmin Cabinet Minister from Uttar Pradesh. While that space could be filled, there is also scope to increase representation for Dalit and Extremely Backward Class communities.
Expansion Factor
The need for a reshuffle is also being felt due to the expansion of the NDA over the past three months. Following the BJP's victory in West Bengal, 20 Lok Sabha and four Rajya Sabha MPs from Trinamool Congress have joined the NDA.
In Maharashtra, six MPs from Shiv Sena (UBT) have broken away to join Shiv Sena (Shinde), and seven Rajya Sabha MPs from the Aam Aadmi Party have merged into the BJP.
Many of them will be expecting berths in the Union ministry.
There is also talk of support from the DMK and the NCP (Sharad Pawar faction) regarding the Delimitation Bill. While speculation about the DMK joining the Modi government is rife, sources indicate that the BJP wants a merger of the two NCP factions so their share in the Modi government can be determined accordingly.
Trinamool Rebels May Claim Berth
The most significant development occurred in West Bengal, where 20 Lok Sabha MPs broke away from the Trinamool Congress and announced their support for the NDA. They have thus become the second-largest constituent of the NDA after the BJP.
Parties with fewer MPs -- such as the TDP and JD(U) -- hold one Cabinet minister and one Minister of State post each. So if this Trinamool faction decides to join the government, they may demand one Cabinet and one Minister of State position.
Given the political equation in West Bengal, it remains to be seen if the BJP will take this risk. Just two months ago, the party was engaged in a fierce political battle against these very leaders.
To avoid a shift in public perception, the BJP has distanced itself from this faction. Instead of merging with the BJP, they chose to merge with an obscure party called NCPI.
Shiv Sena May Join Queue
Another major political development has taken place in Maharashtra, where six MPs from Shiv Sena (UBT) have merged into the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction), pushing its strength to 13. The new figure entitles them too to stake claim for a Cabinet post. Currently, they have only one Minister of State (Independent Charge) position.
Earlier, seven Rajya Sabha MPs from the Aam Aadmi Party had joined the BJP. The question arises whether any of them will secure a spot in the Modi Council of Ministers, especially ahead of the Punjab assembly elections.
Vacancies
Several vacancies have recently opened up in the Council of Ministers.
George Kurian and Ravneet Singh Bittu have resigned following the conclusion of their Rajya Sabha tenures. Rajya Sabha terms of Union Minister Hardeep Singh Puri and Minister of State BL Verma are set to expire in November.
Both represent Uttar Pradesh in the Rajya Sabha, a state where assembly elections are scheduled for next February. The party must decide whether to renominate them to the Rajya Sabha -- their continuation in the Council of Ministers hinges on this decision.
Two other Ministers of State, Pankaj Chaudhary and Harsh Malhotra, have been appointed as state BJP presidents for UP and Delhi.
Under the 'one person, one post' principle, they too could resign from their ministerial roles. Sources, however, indicate that Pankaj Chaudhary might remain in the Council of Ministers in view of the assembly elections, serving as a signal to the Kurmi community.
On Monday, Union Minister for Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal was appointed Treasurer in Nitin Navin's team. Given the 'one person, one post' principle, questions are being raised on whether he will step down from the Council of Ministers.
Goyal has served as the party's treasurer from 2010 to 2014. Subsequently, the treasurer's post within the BJP remained vacant from 2014 to 2020, though Goyal informally handled the responsibilities.
In 2020, JP Nadda appointed Rajesh Agrawal as Treasurer and then, removed him and entrusted the responsibility to Goyal. While the decision on whether Goyal should remain in the government rests with the Prime Minister, it is rare for a leader to continue in the government after being assigned a responsibility within the party organisation.
During the Atal Bihari Vajpayee administration, Pramod Mahajan and Arun Jaitley were moved from the government to the party organisation.
Meanwhile, the tenures of several governors are also set to conclude soon. The terms of Karnataka Governor Thawar Chand Gehlot,
Madhya Pradesh Governor Mangubhai Patel, and Uttarakhand Governor Lt. Gen. Gurmeet Singh are ending in July, whereas the tenure of Uttar Pradesh Governor Anandiben Patel has already concluded. Consequently, there is also speculation regarding the appointment of new governors.
