- DMK's fallout with Congress sparks BJP interest in trying to get MK Stalin's party closer
- DMK demands separate seating from Congress, signaling deeper rift and BJP opportunity
- BJP eyes DMK support to overcome lack of two-thirds majority in key parliamentary votes
Will the DMK-Congress divorce in Tamil Nadu ignite a new affair in Delhi?
Sources have indicated to NDTV that the ruling BJP is smelling an opportunity in the DMK-Congress breakup to shore up its number in Parliament. The party has started exploring the possibility of getting the Dravidian party to work closely with it on the national issues in Parliament.
What Raises BJP's Hopes
After its bitter fallout with the Congress when the latter dumped its longstanding alliance to support the Vijay-led TVK in Tamil Nadu, DMK has been unsparing in its attacks on the Congress calling it a "back-stabber". Upping the ante against the former ally, the DMK has also written to Lok Sabha Om Birla for a new seating arrangement in the House as the party doesn't want its MPs to sit with the Congress in the House. This escalation gives hope to the BJP that the DMK may be amiable to work with it on some issues, sources have told NDTV.
The BJP is also looking at exploiting the DMK's political vulnerability after it's been handed a stunning defeat in Assembly polls by a new party - the TVK. Superstar Vijay's party has broken the six-decade long Dravidian duopoly of the DMK and AIADMK and has rewritten the state's political landscape. Political watchers feel that it is difficult for a regional party to be in opposition both at the State and the Centre. In such a scenario, BJP sources feel, it may be easier to get DMK to work closely with the Centre.
DMK has been with the BJP in the past. It was part of the coalition led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee before it switched to join the Congress led alliance. So, it's not impossible to rekindle the old working relationship, sources feel.
Delimitation & Sanatan hurdles
DMK has been a ferocious opponent of the proposed Delimitation plan of the central government. It framed the entire Assembly election campaign around what it called "BJP's assault on representation of the southern states". DMK MPs staged black cloth protests and burnt the copies of the Delimitation Bill. It won't be easy for the MK Stalin-led party to dilute its position on the issue.
Another sticking point is the DMK position on the Sanatan Dharma, which has constantly pitched it against the BJP. Former Deputy Chief Minister Udhayanidhi Stalin's repeated remarks against the Sanatan Dharma and calls for its eradication have long pitted BJP and DMK at loggerheads. It will be a tricky territory for both sides to navigate.
The Numbers Game
The BJP's hopes rest on the possibility of the DMK supporting it on specific issues in Parliament, where what matters is real numbers. During the Delimitation vote in Parliament, BJP could not muster the two-thirds majority to see the bill through. NDA is 70 short of the two-thirds mark of 362 in Parliament. DMK's 22 MPs in Lok Sabha can take it closer to the magic number in the future. During the delimitation vote, the NDA got 298 votes, while 230 votes were cast against it. The NDA fell 54 short of two-thirds majority mark of 352 as there were 528 MPs present during the vote. DMK's 22 MPs voted against the bill along with the opposition.
The BJP, sources say, is hoping to strike a relationship with the DMK similar to parties such as Naveen Patnaik's Biju Janta Dal (BJD), Jagan Reddy's YSRCP, and the K Chandrasekhar Rao's BRS, where they extend issue-based support to the Center while staying out of the NDA.
The Unravelling Of The AIADMK
The rebellion within the BJP's Tamil Nadu ally, the AIADMK, after the election results, has also forced the BJP to look beyond it. Party sources feel that the party is on the verge of breaking up. And both the factions of the AIADMK will need the Centre's (read BJP) support for their political survival. In such a case, it won't be tough for the BJP to get closer to the DMK if Stalin's party shows any interest.
Presidential Poll Calculation
Election for the new President is slated for next year. Although after big victories in West Bengal and Assam, BJP has emerged stronger, but the lack of two-thirds majority in Parliament continues to bother the party's strategists. BJP sources say that the party will explore the opportunity of getting DMK's support for the President election.
Apart from shoring up the ruling side's number, DMK's issue-based support to the BJP will also show opposition in a disarray. That will be a bonus optics point for the BJP.
