- AxisMyIndia has projected that the NDA will win between 98 and 118 constituencies
- On the other end of the spectrum, CNX has predicted 150-170 seats for the ruling alliance
- The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar Assembly is 122
Throwing up a close contest, in sharp contrast to all other exit polls so far, Axis My India has predicted that the ruling NDA may even fall short of the majority mark in Bihar.
The pollster has projected that the NDA will win between 121 and 140 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 98-118 and poll strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj Party will end up between zero and two.
The majority mark in the 243-member Bihar Assembly is 122, and the lower end of Axis My India's prediction for the NDA puts it at one below that. On the other end, the upper end of 118 for the Mahagathbandhan, which has the RJD and Congress as the main constituents, will put it within touching distance of the majority.
The most worrying numbers for the NDA, however, will be the vote share prediction. The pollster has projected that the ruling alliance will get 43% of votes and the Mahagathbandhan will get 41 - a difference of only two percentage points.
If these figures end up being correct on Friday, which is counting day, this would mean that the Bihar election is not as cut-and-dried as 11 other exit polls have suggested. Every other pollster has given the NDA a clear majority even on the lower end, with Vote Vibe predicting the lowest figure of 125. The most optimistic pollster, CNX, had predicted a lower end of 150 for the NDA and an upper end of 170, which would be higher than the two-thirds majority mark.
NDTV's Poll of Exit Polls, which is an aggregate, suggests the NDA will win 146 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 92 and the Jan Suraaj Party will end up with a solitary MLA.
Health warning: Exit polls often get it wrong.
Despite a probable loss for the Mahagathbandhan, the AxisMyIndia poll suggests that the RJD will emerge as the single-largest party, like it did in 2020. The party had won 75 seats that year, and the pollster has projected that it will emerge victorious on between 67 and 76 this time.
The party projected to do second best is the JDU with 56-62 seats, followed by the BJP with 50-56 seats, and the Congress with 17-21.
If the numbers end up being along these lines, it would mean that while the JDU's figure would increase from 43 in 2020 despite Nitish Kumar not being in the best of health and having served as chief minister for nearly 20 years, the BJP would lose a sizeable number of seats from 74 last time.
This would also, then, shut the door on speculation that the BJP will sideline Kumar and pick a person from the party as chief minister.
Other Predictions
Two other pollsters, Vote Vibe and CNX, released their figures on Wednesday, and both predicted a clear majority for the NDA.
Vote Vibe projected that the NDA will win between 125 and 145 seats, the Mahagathbandhan 95-115 and the Jan Suraaj party between zero and two. CNX went a step further and predicted 150-170 seats for the NDA, 70-90 for the Mahagathbandhan and 0-2 for Jan Suraaj.
