Most exit polls have predicted a clear majority for the ruling NDA in Bihar, with one going as far as to project that it could win between 150 and 170 of the state's 243 seats. What may give the alliance pause, however, is a statistic about increased voter turnouts.
Bihar has seen an overall voter turnout of 66.91%, which is a record in its electoral history. The turnout in the first phase was 65.08%, which was a record in itself, and was then surpassed by the figure for the second phase, which was 68.76%. The overall turnout has increased by 9.62 percentage points compared to the 2020 Assembly elections, when it was 57.29%.
Data from previous elections shows that governments have changed three times in Bihar whenever there has been an increase of over five percentage points in the voter turnout.
In the 1967 elections, voter turnout increased from 44.5% in 1962 to 51.5% - an increase of 7 percentage points - and the Congress government fell. That year, non-Congress parties formed a coalition government.
Then, in the 1980 elections, voter turnout was 57.3%, compared to 50.5% in 1977. This increase of about 6.8% paved the way for a change in power.
The situation repeated itself for the third time in 1990. Voter turnout in 1985 was 56.3%, which increased to 62% - an increase of 5.7 percentage points. The Congress was ousted from power, replaced by the Janata Dal.
In this year's elections, voting for which ended on Tuesday, there were several Assembly constituencies that saw a bumper voter turnout, and some that completely bucked that trend. In the second phase, the constituency with the highest voter turnout was Pranpur (Katihar) with 81.02%, while the constituency with the lowest voter turnout was Kumhrar (Patna) with 39.57%.
10 Assembly constituencies with the highest voter turnout in the second phase:
Pranpur (Katihar) 81.02%
Thakurganj (Kishanganj) 80.51%
Kadwa (Katihar) 79.95%
Kishanganj (Kishanganj) 79.62%
Kochadhaman (Kishanganj) 79.15%
Barari (Katihar) 78.5%
Balrampur (Katihar) 78.1%
Bahadurganj (Kishanganj) 78.05%
Kasba (Purnia) 77.8%
Rupauli (Purnia) 77.58%
10 Assembly constituencies with the lowest voter turnout in the second phase:
Kumhrar Patna 39.57%
Digha (Patna) 41.5%
Biharsharif (Nalanda) 55.09%
Shahpur (Bhojpur) 57.11%
Darauli (Siwan) 57%
Ziradei (Siwan) 57.17%
Ekma (Saran) 58.35%
Danapur (Patna) 58.52%
Chapra (Saran) 58.61%
Daraunda (Siwan) 58.9%
Women's Turnout Was Better Than Men's
The Election Commission reported that more women voted than men in both phases of the election. The total voter turnout across Bihar's 243 seats was 66.9%, with 62.8% of men and 71.6% of women voting.
