The Hooghly River and the city of Kolkata serve as the focal points of South Bengal's political history. The ancient Ganga and the Tamralipta kingdom (1100 BCE–350 CE) formed a major power base under the Pala and Sena dynasties. It later became a core region of the medieval Bengal Sultanate and subsequently a British stronghold following the Battle of Plassey in 1757. Kolkata became the British capital and the centre of the Bengali Renaissance. After 1947, it emerged as the heart of the state of West Bengal, characterised by an intense political and democratic parliamentary culture.
When discussing South Bengal, one must consider population density and geographical spread. Compared to North Bengal, South Bengal has a significantly higher population density and a larger total area. According to the 2011 Census and subsequent estimates, South Bengal is the heavily populated industrial and agricultural core of the state, whereas North Bengal is characterised by lower density, hilly terrain, and extensive forest areas.
Now, in South Bengal, where population density is higher, Kolkata, its suburban regions, and the areas along the Hooghly River exhibit greater political consciousness and intensity. Political rivalries are stronger here. From Chittaranjan Das and Netaji Subhas Bose to Bidhan Chandra Roy, this political tradition has largely been urban in nature. There was a distinctly elitist Congress leadership, deeply influenced by the Renaissance culture of Bengal—particularly Kolkata and South Bengal—which held considerable influence.
In fact, Howrah and Kolkata are twin cities, both belonging to South Bengal. While Kolkata has a history of around 300 years, Howrah's heritage extends to nearly 500 years. Along the banks of the Hooghly River, places like Uttarpara and Konnagar have very ancient historical roots. As a result, South Bengal had a population of over 74 million in 2011, whereas North Bengal's population is comparatively lower.
In South Bengal, politics centred around Nabanna (the state administrative headquarters) is also much more influential. Another important factor is the process of urbanisation, which has been ongoing for the last few decades. As a result, the population has increased, housing has expanded, and urbanisation has intensified. However, the development of satellite cities has not been as extensive as it ideally should have been. Consequently, each district has its own distinct political dynamics.
For example, Urdu-speaking Muslim populations are present in South Bengal, but they are more concentrated around Kolkata. Areas like Park Circus in Kolkata, along with landmarks such as Tipu Sultan Mosque and Nakhoda Mosque, reflect this concentration. However, there are many Muslims in Hooghly, Furfura Sarif, North, and South 24 Parganas. Although there are more Muslims in South Bengal overall, there are more Bengali Muslims in the state's rural areas. It has been reported that Muslims supported Mamata with N Block votes in the most recent election. At the time, ISF, which sprang from Furfura Sarif, was unable to have a significant influence. Despite receiving a small percentage of the vote, they were able to get one seat.
The alliance that the Left, Congress, and ISF have created this time is unformable, and many claim that ISF no longer has the same unfavourable view of Trinamool. The Humayun-ISF agreement says Humayun is in the north and Siddiqui is in the south. However, the practical outcome of Siddiqui's eventual vote share remains uncertain.
Based on the 2011 Census figures, the Muslim population in South Bengal varies significantly by district. The highest concentration is in Murshidabad, while districts in the western Rarh region—such as Purulia and Bankura—have much lower Muslim populations and relatively higher tribal populations. District-wise Muslim population figures are as follows: Murshidabad 66.27 per cent, Birbhum 37.06 per cent, South 24 Parganas 35.57 per cent, Nadia 26.76 per cent, Howrah 26.20 per cent, North 24 Parganas 25.82 per cent, Purba Bardhaman 25.16 per cent, Kolkata around 20 per cent, Hooghly 15.77 per cent, Purba Medinipur 14.59 per cent, Paschim Medinipur 10.49 per cent, Bankura 8.08 per cent, Purulia 7.76 per cent, and Jhargram 2.51 per cent. The data for Paschim Bardhaman was separated from Bardhaman after 2011. Border districts like Murshidabad, Nadia, and the 24 Parganas show higher Muslim presence, often exceeding 25 per cent, while Murshidabad stands out with a substantial majority of over 66 per cent. On the other hand, the western Rarh region—Bankura, Purulia, and Jhargram—has among the lowest percentages, often below 10 per cent.
The discussion of South Bengal can begin with Murshidabad. Murshidabad acts as the connecting district between North Bengal and South Bengal. It has 22 seats, out of which the Trinamool had won 20. Now, in this region, the BJP leadership believes that due to the influence of Humayun Kabir and his new party, even if they themselves cannot achieve much, they may cut into the Trinamool's vote share. Therefore, retaining those 20 out of 22 seats will be difficult for the Trinamool. Speculation suggests that the Trinamool's representation in Murshidabad could drop to approximately 12 to 14 seats. However, the Trinamool is not willing to accept this assessment.
In Murshidabad, issues like cattle smuggling, Phensedyl, cough syrup, and cross-border smuggling into Bangladesh remain politically significant. The Trinamool asserts that Mamata Banerjee's leadership put an end to these activities, while the BJP contends that they are still prevalent. During the 2023 panchayat elections, these issues had some impact, and the BJP seemed to benefit from campaigning around smuggling. In particular, the Kandi subdivision is considered somewhat politically unstable, according to the BJP, and they believe this has created challenges for the Trinamool.
Next, let us come to Nadia. Nadia has a total of 16 seats, of which the Trinamool has won seven. What happens in Krishnanagar is crucial, as it is a highly sensitive seat with strong BJP influence.
Then comes North 24 Parganas, which has 33 seats, and South 24 Parganas, which has 31 seats. Out of 31 seats in South 24 Parganas, the Trinamool had won 30, while in North 24 Parganas, it had won 27 out of 33. Political saturation is high in these regions. The BJP believes that if the influence of ISF increases, it may gain some advantage. The BJP is targeting at least six to seven seats here. The RSS is quite active in several areas of South 24 Parganas, particularly in regions like Patharpratima and Joynagar.
In Howrah, there are 16 seats, all of which were won by the Trinamool. This has led to a certain level of overconfidence within the Trinamool. As a result, the sitting MLA Manoj Tiwary, a sportsperson, was not ticketed this time. Instead, Dr Rana Chatterjee has been brought in from the Bally seat and given the Shibpur seat. There has been some reshuffling within Howrah, with a swap between the Shibpur and Bally seats.
In Hooghly, out of 18 seats, the Trinamool had 14. Here too, many new candidates have been introduced, and several old ones have been dropped. In Purba Bardhaman, the Trinamool had won all 16 seats. In Paschim Bardhaman, which includes industrial areas like Asansol, the BJP is trying to build pressure and strengthen its presence.
In Purulia, out of nine seats, the Trinamool has four. The Trinamool has four of the 12 seats in Bankura. These districts—Bankura, Jhargram, and Purulia—have significant tribal populations. In Paschim Medinipur, the Trinamool holds 13 out of 15 seats, while in Purba Medinipur, the Trinamool has 10 out of 16 seats and the BJP has six.
After the festival season, the political focus has shifted more toward the tribal regions. The BJP has been working actively in Purulia, Bankura, and Jhargram. Leaders like Arjun Munda, a national-level tribal leader from Jharkhand, have been deployed here. Within tribal communities, there are also internal variations—for instance, Santals constitute around 60 per cent, while Bhumij and Munda communities make up around 30 per cent. Lodha are approximately 10 per cent. Santals, Mundas, and Lodhas are among those who back Trinamool. Voters generally oppose the BJP, aside from Mahtos. The BJP is doing all in its power to sway Mahtos and Mundas. In reality, the BJP has offered tribal candidates for the Bhumij and Munda.
Additionally, Rajesh Mahato switched from the Trinamool to the BJP, which is attempting to influence the tribes. The Bowri community, particularly in Purulia, is experiencing unrest about their voting. After the division of the Bowri board, they began to oppose Trinamool. Mamata also worked very cleverly to split the vote in half at the same time, which helped in the establishment of additional boards there and attempted to address every problem facing the Bowri community.
South Bengal is currently experiencing a water problem. The election will take place during the hottest part of summer, and in addition, the Jal Jeevan Mission is not operating here. As a result, the central government was unable to obtain the funds. The BJP blames the Trinamool for the water issue by limiting its initiative, while the Trinamool says the central government isn't providing resources. When taken as a whole, the situation is severe.
Mamata is more influential in South Bengal than in North Bengal. In this case, the SIR's supplementary list will show how many deletions occurred in South Bengal. All together, the situation in South Bengal has also turned out to be quite sensitive right now.
In the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections, the Trinamool Congress and BJP performed as follows in South Bengal: Trinamool won 153 seats in South Bengal districts, including Murshidabad (20), Nadia (eight), North 24 Parganas (28), South 24 Parganas (30), Kolkata (11), Howrah (16), Hooghly (14), Purba Medinipur (nine), and Paschim Medinipur (13).
BJP won 24 seats in South Bengal districts, including Murshidabad (two), Nadia (nine), North 24 Parganas (five), South 24 Parganas (one), Kolkata (zero), Howrah (zero), Hooghly (four), Purba Medinipur (seven), and Paschim Medinipur (one).
Overall, the Trinamool secured 215 seats, while the BJP secured 77 seats in the 2021 West Bengal Assembly elections.
This data clearly reflects that, while the BJP made inroads in certain pockets, South Bengal largely remained a stronghold of the Trinamool, driven by its organisational strength, urban influence, and consolidation of key vote banks.
