Behind Chirag Paswan's 'Bihar First' Poll Entry Is Unexcited JDU, No Options

Lok Janshakti Party boss Chirag Paswan's decision to contest the Bihar election this year - despite already being a MP and a union minister - does not seem to have gone down well with Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United.

JDU sources have viewed his decision to enter the fray - he had said "I will contest for Bihar and its people... will realise the dreams of my father (popular state leader Ram Vilas Paswan) and work for 'Bihar first, Bihari first' - as a 'pressure tactic' for more seats when the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance names candidates.

Publicly the BJP has backed Nitish Kumar to remain as Chief Minister, but sources say some within it lean in favour of Mr Paswan, believing he could unite Paswan community votes.

And the JDU, which fears being sidelined, perhaps even further than they were in 2020, is not pleased; party sources told NDTV they believe this could even lead to Chirag Paswan potentially challenging Nitish Kumar for the Chief Minister's post in the event the NDA retains power.

As such, JDU sources have stressed Mr Paswan's decision to contest is a personal choice and not one formally backed by the NDA, meaning the BJP does not support his candidature. In fact, the sources said the party would even have the final say in LJP candidates for allotted seats.

Story Behind JDU-LJP Tension

The LJP and JDU (and ex-Chief Minister Jitan Manjhi's H/industan Awami Morcha (Secular)) are allies but relations are fragile.

The unease dates back to the 2020 election, when, allegedly egged on by the BJP, Mr Paswan's party contested against the JDU. This, Nitish Kumar party seniors still maintain, ate into their votes and allowed the BJP to become as the dominant partner in the state-level alliance.

Nitish Kumar's JDU is still peeved at Paswan's LJP over 'vote-cutting' in 2020 (File).

Many also still insist the BJP created 'bad blood' between Nitish Kumar and Chirag Paswan.

As a result, Mr Paswan's planned show of strength in Nitish Kumar's home district has also triggered alarm bells in the latter's party. The event will take place on June 29, when the LJP leader will rally a claimed two lakh people through Bahujan Bhim Sankalp Samagam in Rajgir.

What Are Chirag Paswan's Options?

But does Mr Paswan have a realistic shot in this Bihar election? Of not just winning his seat but also enough to seriously threaten Nitish Kumar returning as Chief Minister?

READ | "Yes, Will Contest From Bihar," Says Chirag Paswan. Then Adds A Twist

Political experts say this is not likely. More specifically, the reality is the BJP needs the JDU more.

Within NDA?

Nitish Kumar's party (and the Telugu Desam Party, that of Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu) are critical to the BJP retaining power at the centre after a poor 2024 Lok Sabha election left the BJP short of a solo parliamentary majority and reliant on the JDU and TDP to stay afloat.

Therefore, in a head-to-head, the JDU will likely always emerge as the BJP's pick.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JDU is a key ally of PM Modi's BJP (File).

On a personal level, Mr Paswan is risking a lot to contest in a state election. Should he choose to do so and lose, the JDU could put pressure on the BJP to drop him from the cabinet, pressure that, as mentioned above, might succeed, leaving the LJP leader without an MP or MLA seat.

In any case, sources said the LJP is unlikely to get more than 30 of the state's 243 seats, while the BJP and JDU are likely to get over a 100 each, making it impossible for Mr Paswan's party to win enough seats to stake any claim to primacy of position in the state alliance.

In Opposition Camp?

Across the political divide there is the opposition alliance, Mahagathbandhan.

But there will likely be even less joy for Mr Paswan here, given Rashtriya Janata Dal leader Tejashwi Yadav is firmly established as the alliance's face (despite the Congress dithering). And even if there is no main leader in the opposition, again the LJP is unlikely to win enough seats to claim that post.

NDTV Explains | Why Congress Is Reluctant To Endorse Tejashwi Yadav For Bihar Poll

And, the opposition parties will also be wary about a possible switch by Mr Paswan later, having already been burnt (again) by Nitish Kumar and his flip flop in January last year.

With Prashant Kishor?

The only position Mr Paswan might, conceivably, contest enough seats to make a tilt at the chief minister's chair likely is with poll strategist Prashant Kishor, who masterminded Nitish Kumar's earlier win and whose Jan Suraaj is expected to make its electoral debut this year.

An alliance between Chirag Paswan and Prashant Kishor is seen as unlikley (File).

But here too there may be questions asked of his claiming a leadership role.

Plus the chances of Mr Kishor's party winning 122 seats (the majority mark) on its debut are unlikely, particularly when there are powerful parties like the BJP, JDU, and RJD in play.

Going Solo?

Mr Paswan could go solo but that is almost certainly not the answer.

He tried that in 2020; he contested 130 seats but won just one.

It appears, therefore, that options are limited for Mr Paswan and time is running out. The Election Commission has not announced dates yet, but will likely do so soon.

1st Round Seat-Share Talks Done

Meanwhile, the NDA has completed groundwork for distribution of tickets for the election, a different set of sources told NDTV two weeks ago. And, as part of that ground work, a survey of caste and power equations was conducted in each constituency, to pinpoint the caste or community of candidates.

Care will be taken to balance caste equations in each seat, sources said, and no ally will be allowed to field candidates without considering these dynamics.

READ | Caste Survey? Check. Phase 1 Of BJP-Led Alliance's Bihar Poll Prep Done

Caste and caste equations are a critical factor in the Bihar electoral landscape, a factor underlined by the results of the November 2023 survey that said over 60 per cent of the population of nearly 14 crore are from Extremely Backward and Backward Classes.

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