Do not miss tonight's special episode of The Numbers Game with Rahul Kanwal at 8 pm on NDTV 24x7. Rahul Kanwal will decode the high-stakes Tamil Nadu Assembly elections digit by digit, analysing every twist in this fiercely contested battle. With 234 seats going to polls on April 23 and results on May 4, every number, trend, and ground report will be dissected live.
Catch the most insightful election analysis only on The Numbers Game with Rahul Kanwal.
Here are the highlights:
The Numbers Game With Rahul Kanwal: The Vijay Factor - Real Or Hype?
"Vijay Not The Principal Factor In Tamil Nadu Elections": GVL Narasimha Rao
How Vijay's TVK May Dent DMK And ADMK's Vote Share: The Numbers Game With Rahul Kanwal
The Numbers Game With Rahul Kanwal: Decoding Tamil Nadu Polls
The Numbers Game: Decoding Tamil Nadu Elections
Rahul Kanwal: "Let's move the needle up. If we go from 10% to 12%. So if Vijay's party gets 12% off the vote share, and in this case, again, the bulk of it comes from the AIADMK. Then obviously the DMK does even better because it's picking up more votes.
"Let's switch to the other scenario. If he picks up 12% of the vote share, but 8% of this comes from the DMK, and only 2% comes from the AIADMK. 2% is coming from other parties. That's the first scenario.
"AIADMK benefits from Vijay's presence because he's picked up 8% of his 12% from the DMK. This is a nightmare scenario for the DMK. 8% picks up from the DMK 2% from the ADMK, then you've got the election turning with AIADMK at 127, DMK at 107 for the first time in one of the scenarios, you've got the AIADMK in the lead thanks to Vijay. This is 12%."
Watch The Numbers Game With Rahul Kanwal
The Numbers Game With Rahul Kanwal: Decoding Tamil Nadu Polls
Rahul Kanwal: "You've seen all kinds of polls doing the rounds in the buildup to the Tamil Nadu elections, people projecting all kinds of votes.
"We'll take the first scenario. This is with Vijay getting about 8% of the overall vote.
"In all the scenarios that you'll see, we're assuming that 2% comes from other parties so if he gets 8% of the overall vote, and we'll see how this comes from the AIDMK and the DMK and then where this could end up.
"This is the point I made earlier that 8% is the bare minimum Vijay needs for electoral relevance. Less than that, he's an also-ran. It's a bit like PK in the Bihar elections. There's a lot of noise, but nothing really came of it. Anything less than 8%, it's a knockout for Vijay."
