Who Will Fill Tarun Gogoi's Shoes In Assam? Congress Hopes 3 Gogois Can

For the Congress, a Gogoi emerged as its talisman in Assam decades ago, establishing himself as one of the state's tallest leaders and cementing his place in history as its longest-serving chief minister.

Tarun Gogoi's term ended after 15 years in 2016 and Assam has seen a period of BJP dominance since then, with the party winning 60 of 126 seats on its own in 2021 and setting the stage for a comfortable majority for the alliance for the second straight time.

The former chief minister died in 2020 and, struggling to fill his imposing shoes, the Congress is hoping not one but three Gogois, including Tarun Gogoi's son, can give the party and its alliance the boost it needs to dislodge the BJP and return to power in the state again.

Until now, these three Gogois had been fighting elections independently, joining forces for the first time this year as part of the Asom Sonmilito Morcha. The individuals are Gaurav Gogoi, the 43-year-old President of the Assam Congress; Lurinjyoti Gogoi, also 43, who is the chief of the Assam Jatiya Parishad; and Akhil Gogoi, the 50-year-old founder of the Raijor Dal.

Backgrounds

The son of Tarun Gogoi, Gaurav Gogoi has been elected an MP thrice and is also the Congress' deputy leader in the Lok Sabha. He is making his Assembly polls debut this year, in a move that is being seen as signalling the party's intent in Assam, which was also visible in its decision to appoint Priyanka Gandhi Vadra as the chairperson of the screening committee.

Akhil Gogoi entered politics while spearheading campaigns against corruption as one of the most prominent Right to Information activists in the state. Akhil, who is also a farmer leader, founded the Krishak Mukti Sangram Samiti in Assam. He established the Raijor Dal in 2020 and was elected as an MLA from Sivasagar the followin year.

The popularity of Lurinjyoti Gogoi, who is from Dibrugarh, surged rapidly as regionalist sentiments in Assam reached a crescendo following the passage of the Citizenship Amendment Act in December 2019. Gogoi, who was one of the leading faces of the protests against the amended legislation, stepped into electoral politics the next year after resigning as the General Secretary of the influential All Assam Students' Union (AASU) and founding the Assam Jatiya Parishad.

Lurinjyoti's stated agenda includes securing Scheduled Tribe (ST) status for six specific communities and ensuring better wages for workers in the tea gardens.

Impact, Number Crunching

The coming together of the three Gogois is expected to have a significant bearing on 40 to 45 Assembly seats in Upper Assam, a region where the Ahom community - to which they belong - wields considerable influence.

The Congress party has allotted 11 seats to Akhil Gogoi's Raijor Dal and 10 to Lurinjyoti Gogoi's Assam Jatiya Parishad.

In the last election, the NDA secured 44.5 per cent of the votes in Assam, while the Congress-led opposition alliance garnered 43.7 per cent. While the vote share margin was only 0.8 per cent, the gap in terms of seats was 25. The Assam Jatiya Parishad had contested 82 of the state's 126 seats and secured 3.7 per cent of the vote, whereas the Raijor Dal had put up candidates in 29 constituencies and walked away with a 1.5-per cent vote share.

In 14 constituencies where the Congress was defeated, the two parties collectively secured a vote share that exceeded the margin of victory. Assuming vote transfers had taken place successfully, the Congress would have had a high probability of winning these seats.

What is also different in this election is that the Congress has parted ways with Badruddin Ajmal's AIUDF, which was a key ally the last time. The Congress party's strategic calculation is that by maintaining a distance from Ajmal, it can effectively curb the polarisation of votes and succeed in attracting the ethnic and tribal Hindu vote base in Assam - a task in which Akhil and Lurinjyoti Gogoi are expected to play a pivotal role.

The move also sends a clear message to marginalised voters that the opposition stands united and, simultaneously, ensures that there is no "third front" to split the opposition vote and make victories easier for the BJP.

The alliance - which also includes the CPM, All Party Hill Leaders Conference and CPI (ML) - and a good showing, have become even more important for the Congress given the high-profile exits of former Assam Congress president Bhupen Borah and MP Pradyut Bordoloi, both of whom have joined the BJP.

Elections will be held for all 126 seats in a single phase on April 9, and results will be declared on May 4.