Madhya Pradesh politics has suddenly turned restless. A resignation, two days of silence, and a carefully worded clarification have triggered a fresh political storm in state capital Bhopal.
The Congress' Hemant Katare, the Deputy Leader of the Opposition, stepped down from his post and disappeared from public view for 48 hours. He then resurfaced Monday to insist his decision was personal. He cited 'family reasons', denied any plan to join the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, and categorically ruled out differences with his boss, LoP Umang Singhar.
But in politics, timing is everything.
And the timing of his resignation set off a storm of speculation, particularly before elections for three Madhya Pradesh Rajya Sabha seats that will fall vacant in April-May.
Katare tried to douse the flames.
He said he had prepared extensively to raise issues such as Bhagirathpura in the Assembly but could not even attend a family wedding due to his commitments.
He dismissed speculation about joining the BJP and called Singhar his 'elder brother', and said he would accept whatever decision the party takes on his resignation.
As of Monday evening, however, it is unclear if the resignation was accepted.
But the BJP has wasted no time in attacking. Co-operation Minister Vishwas Sarang called the Congress a 'sinking ship' and claimed three to four MLAs from the party reached out daily even though, in his words, "there is a 'no entry' sign there (above the metaphorical BJP door)".
The bottom line, though, is that the statements matter less than the arithmetic.
And the arithmetic of Rajya Sabha polls is unforgiving.
Rajya Sabha members are chosen by the elected members of the Legislative Assembly and the quota required to win a seat is based on a simple formula, i.e., (total MLAs) / (seats + 1) + 1.
The Madhya Pradesh has 230 MLAs.
With three Rajya Sabha seats up for grabs, the quota is 230/(3 +1) +1.
That works out to 57 (rounded down from 57.5). Add the '+1' and the magic number 58. This means, in simple terms, a candidate needs 58 MLAs to secure one Rajya Sabha seat.
Now look at the numbers.
The BJP has 165 MLAs and the Congress 64. The Bharat Adivasi Party has one seat.
The BJP has enough votes to win two seats with 49 votes still in hand.
To win all three, it needs an additional 19 votes. The Congress could deny it that third seat by only if 91 per cent of its MLAs, i.e., 58 of 64, vote for the party's candidate. A record that appears unlikely given how consistently Congress leaders have cross-voted in similar polls elsewhere.
The Congress is also on shaky ground because if a handful of MLAs defect, or even abstain, the equation could shift in favour of the BJP. And that is where the political temperature rises.
Three prominent names are in play.
Senior Congress leader and ex-Chief Minister Digvijaya Singh completes his term this year.
Will the Congress re-nominate him or will internal pressures force a rethink?
The answer depends not just on loyalty but also legislative arithmetic.
For the BJP, Sumer Singh Solanki, seen as a young tribal leader from Barwani, also completes his term. Again, will he be re-nominated or replaced?
The third name is George Kurian, the junior Fisheries Minister who took over the seat vacated by Jyotiraditya Scindia. The ex-Congress leader surrendered that seat after winning the Lok Sabha election from Guna. Kurian's continuation has been seen as carrying implications beyond Madhya Pradesh, especially with Kerala heading into an Assembly election in 2026.
