Caste Survey? Check. Phase 1 Of BJP-Led Alliance's Bihar Poll Prep Done

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance has completed groundwork for distribution of tickets for the Bihar Assembly election expected to be held later this year, sources told NDTV Tuesday.

As part of that ground work a survey of caste and power equations has been conducted in each constituency, to pinpoint the caste or community from which to draw candidates who will be fielded by the ruling alliance, which is fronted by the BJP and Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's JDU.

Care will be taken to balance caste equations in each seat, sources said, and no ally will be allowed to field candidates without considering these dynamics.

Caste and caste equations are a critical factor in the Bihar electoral landscape, a factor underlined by the results of the statewide survey in November 2023 that said over 60 per cent of the state's population of nearly 14 crore are from Extremely Backward and Backward Classes.

READ | Bihar Caste Survey: 27% Backward Classes, 36% Extremely Backward Classes

The survey also said the Yadav community - the group to which RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav belongs - is the largest sub-group, accounting for 14.27 per cent of all OBC categories.

There is also an agreement to allow sitting MLAs the chance to defend their seat, which appears to contradict the BJP's practice of wholesale pre-election changes to counter anti-incumbency.

However, some MLAs be changed based on their performance these past five years.

A few more rounds of talks - on seat-sharing - will take place in Bihar before it shifts to Delhi, where the BJP's senior leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, will name candidates.

The Seat-Sharing Formula

Last week sources told NDTV the formula for seat allocation will be similar (but not identical) to the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Then the state's 40 seats were divided as follows - 17 for the BJP, 16 for the JDU, five for Chirag Paswan's LJP, and one each for Jitan Manjhi's HAM and the RLM.

This time, however, the allocation may tilt in favour of the JDU.

Sources said Nitish Kumar's party might contest 102-103 seats and the BJP 101-102.

The remaining - 38-40 seats - will be divided between the three smaller parties.

Of this the LJP will likely get the lion's share - between 25 and 28 - because it has five MPs.

The Chirag Paswan Angle

Chirag Paswan - who many feel was used by the BJP in the 2020 election to cut votes from Nitish Kumar's JDU - has been talking up his party's chances in this election.

On Sunday he addressed a rally in Patna and said his party would contest all 243 seats.

He also referred to his father - the late former Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan, who died in October 2020 - and said that having lost him, the people of Bihar are his only family.

However, Mr Paswan was also quick to underline his support for the BJP-led alliance, stressing that his plans to contest all seats was intended to "make the NDA stronger".

READ | "Yes, Will Contest From Bihar," Says Chirag Paswan. Then Adds Twist

Mr Paswan contested against Nitish Kumar in the 2020 election. This cut down the JDU boss' dominant position in the alliance and allowed the BJP to play big brother, a fact that played its part in an angry Nitish Kumar dumping the saffron party and re-aligning with the RJD in 2022.

However, in January 2024 Nitish Kumar - who formed the INDIA opposition bloc to unite parties opposed to the BJP in the two years away, only to find himself being sidelined in his quest (denied publicly) to become a prime ministerial candidate - re-re-aligned himself with the BJP.

The BJP's intention to give Nitish Kumar a marginal edge in terms of seats allocated might be a tactic to pacify the JDU leader ahead of this election given Chirag Paswan's presence.

Assurances that Nitish will be the chief ministerial candidate of the NDA have also been given.

Congress-RJD Rift?

Meanwhile, across the divide it appears all is not well in the opposition Mahagathbandan camp, which includes the Tejashwi Yadav-led RJD, the Congress, and Left parties.

READ | On The Congress' Reluctantce To Endorse Tejashwi Yadav For Bihar Poll

The Congress has, so far, not endorsed Mr Yadav as the alliance leader and chief ministerial candidate, sparking rumours the national party, which has struggled for traction in recent Bihar polls, having won 27 in 2015 and only 19 in the last election, will try to go solo once again.

The RJD, though, has made its position clear - Tejashwi Yadav is the face of the opposition.

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