- Super El Nino may cause 239,000 extra heat deaths worldwide from Sept 2026 to Feb 2027
- Global land temperatures expected to rise by 1.2°C causing 44% more extremely hot days
- Nigeria leads with 31,400 estimated heat-related deaths during this period
Winter is still months away, but the heat may not disappear everywhere. A Climate Impact Lab forecast from the University of Chicago estimates that the current Super El Nino could be linked to an additional 2.39 lakh heat-related deaths globally in the next six months, from September 2026 to February 2027.
Between June 2026 and February 2027, the estimated additional deaths would be 4.51 lakh, compared with a normal year. The forecast covers the first nine months of the El Nino event and estimates how heat-related deaths could change across different parts of the world.
The researchers expect global land temperatures to be 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months, largely because of the current Super El Nino. They estimate that this could result in 44 per cent more extremely hot days than in a normal year.
The impact is expected to vary across countries. Nigeria has the highest estimated number of heat-related deaths at 31,400, followed by Indonesia at 19,300 and Sudan at 17,500. India ranks fourth, with an estimated 15,800 heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. Brazil follows with 13,300.
The Democratic Republic of the Congo and Niger are each estimated to record about 10,000 heat-related deaths. Chad is estimated at 7,900, the Philippines at 6,500 and South Sudan at 5,600.
What India Will See
For India, the six-month estimate is 15,800 heat-related deaths. The report estimates that around 7,400 of these could occur between December 2026 and February 2027. The estimate carries an uncertainty range of about 1,600 deaths.
The estimated death count is lower in September, rises through October and is projected to peak in November. It then falls slightly in December and January before rising again in February, which is projected to record the second-highest monthly toll.
The timing is important because the forecast period covers months that are generally cooler across much of India.
However, the report expects the effects of the El Nino-related heat to continue beyond February. It specifically says heat-related deaths in India and Pakistan could rise further as the Northern Hemisphere moves towards summer.
The report also notes that the El Nino is expected to continue through Northern Hemisphere spring 2027. The Climate Impact Lab says measures such as heat warnings, cooling centres, hydration facilities, health-system preparedness and protection for outdoor workers can reduce the health risks from extreme heat. Meanwhile, the El Nino probability is 100 per cent through February 2027, but it will drop to 61 per cent by mid-2027.
