Middle East War Could Trigger Worst Global Aid Crisis Since COVID, Warns UN

The ongoing war in the Middle East could trigger the worst disruption to global humanitarian operations since COVID, the World Food Programme (WFP) warned, as Secretary-General of the United Nations, Antonio Guterres, reiterated his call for an immediate end to the widening conflict.

"The Secretary-General asserts once more that the war in the Middle East must stop," Guterres said in a statement issued by the UN Spokesperson's Office in New York. He added that all UN Security Council resolutions aimed at ending Middle East conflicts must be implemented, including Resolution 2817 demanding an end to Iran's attacks on neighbouring states.

The WFP cautioned that the fallout from the conflict could rival, or exceed, disruptions seen during the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine war. "Our supply chains may really be on the brink of the most severe disruption since COVID and the Ukraine war back in 2022," WFP Deputy Executive Director, Carl Skau said.

He warned that escalating violence, triggered by Israeli and US strikes on Iran and retaliatory attacks by Tehran and allied groups, has already led to longer shipping times and rising costs. "We are really feeling the pain on this," he said.

Shipping costs have risen by 18 per cent, with thousands of aid trucks now operating on significantly more expensive fuel. "These are now running on much more expensive fuel, due to the oil prices," Skau said, adding, "we can buy less food or provide less cash to beneficiaries."

The impact is already visible on the ground. The agency has cut food rations in famine-hit Sudan and can support only one in four acutely malnourished children in Afghanistan. Fertiliser supply chains have also been disrupted, with a quarter of global supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz, now "at a virtual standstill".

Skau warned that rising food and fuel prices "could leave millions of families priced out of staple foods", particularly in import-dependent regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. "If the Middle East conflict continues through June, an additional 45 million people could be pushed into acute hunger by price rises...This would take global hunger levels to an all-time record and it's a terrible, terrible prospect."

Meanwhile, the humanitarian fallout in Lebanon has intensified. The UN's top aid official in the country, Imran Riza, said aid deliveries from Gulf countries have collapsed. "The air bridge is no longer there," he said, noting that support from countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE has stopped.

Displacement has surged, with 132,700 people in 622 shelters and over one million estimated to have fled their homes, "nearly 20 per cent of the people living in Lebanon having been displaced, and it's going to continue," Riza said.

He added that around 70 per cent of displaced people are outside shelters, complicating aid efforts, while many, especially the elderly, remain trapped in conflict zones. "They're very vulnerable people that are remaining behind," he said.

The UN human rights office has also raised alarm, Spokesperson, Thameen Al-Kheetan warned that expanding Israeli evacuation orders "may amount to forced displacement", which is prohibited under international law.

He said airstrikes have destroyed entire residential buildings, often killing multiple family members, including women and children. At least 16 medical staff have been killed in recent days, while displaced people living in tents have also been hit.

"Statements by Israeli officials threatening to impose the same level of destruction on Lebanon as inflicted in Gaza are wholly unacceptable," he said, adding that such rhetoric and military escalation are deepening fear among civilians.

With aid routes disrupted, costs soaring and displacement rising, the UN has warned that the conflict risks triggering a global humanitarian crisis with far-reaching consequences.

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