- Many Indian cities face early intense summer with heatwaves in several states including Delhi and Punjab
- Delhi recorded its hottest day at 42.8 degrees Celsius with unusually high night temperatures in some regions
- Super El Nino, a strong Pacific climate event, could worsen heat and disrupt monsoons in India in 2026
Many Indian cities are grappling with an intense early onset of summer, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) warning of heatwave conditions across Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha. Delhi logged its hottest day of the year at 42.8 degrees C above normal. The night temperatures in Delhi, Haryana and Odisha are also staying unusually high. IMD forecasts "above-normal" heatwave days through June for parts of east, central, and northwest India.
El Nino and 'Super El Nino'
Against this backdrop, global climate agencies are monitoring another factor that could worsen heat and disrupt monsoons, which is "super El Nino". As per The Guardian, scientists are tracking conditions that are developing in the Pacific Ocean, and could spike global temperatures and smash heat records in the year ahead.
Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other models suggest the developing El Nino could evolve into one of the strongest in over a century. Climate models show a high probability of formation with potential strengthening later in 2026. A recent study flagged a rising trend in the Super El Nino Index (SEI) values since 1982, likely liked to global warming.
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"After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow," said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
"Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April."
El Nino is a natural climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean that occurs every 2-7 years. During El Nino, trade winds weaken and warm water that's usually piled up near Asia sloshes eastward, making sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific warmer than normal. It also disrupts global wind systems and rainfall, influencing temperature, storms and monsoons thousands of miles away.
In India, El Nino years are often linked to weaker southwest monsoons and higher summer temperatures. The WMO has indicated neutral conditions may shift toward El Nino between May and July 2026.
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A "super El Nino" is an unusually strong version of the phenomenon. It's typically defined by sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +2.0 degrees C above average in the central Pacific, compared with +0.5 degrees C to +1.4 degrees C for a regular El Nino.
"While the majority of models predict global monthly temperature anomalies will remain below 2C, the fact that there's a nonzero chance of +2C happening is shocking," Marc Alessi, a fellow at the Union of Concerned Scientists said this week in an analysis, as quoted by The Guardian.
What This Could Mean for India
This year, IMD has already warned of more heatwave days than normal from April to June across parts of east, central, northwest India and the southeast peninsula. If a super El Nino develops, it could:
1. Extend and intensify heatwaves: It could lead to above-normal minimum temperatures over most of India, which means hotter nights.
2. Impact on this year's monsoon: El Nino is associated with less rainfall, which might cause drought and agricultural risks.
3. Impact water and health: With rainfall for Jan-Feb 2026 already 60% below normal, additional heat stress could strain water supply and power grids.
