In another five years, we will see a fresh wave of potential customers for automobiles in India - the Gen Alpha, or just Alpha, for short.
2030 will be an interesting convergence of at least three generations of buyers, the present Z, who would have reached both mid-life as well as adulthood going by the age band, the imminent Alpha who would be entering adulthood and the outgoing Millennial who might be making the last vehicle purchase.
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The Alpha is my point of discussion here. For the reason that for an industry like automobile or mobility, development cycles are longer and gestation periods are larger given the nature of investments in technology, manufacturing, retail and servicing. To successfully cater to Alpha ten years from now, automakers have to start working on the basics right now, if they have not as yet.
I counter my own hypothesis in two ways. First, the buyer behaviour will remain more or less the same, as it has over the last two decades, hence no real imperative to revisit existing plans. Second, India is a huge market with a very low penetration of vehicles, so we have a long way to go before any substantial disruption really hits us.
First, remember the pager versus the mobile phone? Or, more recently, digital payments vis-a-vis physical payments? When the change in behaviour happened, it happened all of a sudden and across the board. Those content with older understanding of usage behaviour were virtually wiped out. This is the trait of an 'emerging' economy and market. It does not respect the traditional ways of thinking, consuming and sharing. It jumps the steps that a legacy developed market would, slowly and steadily, careful not to disrupt too much.
Which brings me to the second counter, of the need for disruption vis-a-vis penetration. Our economic divide is growing. Larger number of working Indians will not be able to afford a new mode of mechanical transport. In the much-touted market of 1 billion, the actual market for private mobility solutions is not more than 50 million, at the most optimistic.
There are enough research reports on what Alpha is like. Any LLM will also throw up lots of content. We know that this new generation by four key traits.
One. It is hugely aware and active on issues of sustainability and purpose. It assesses options of usage and brands accordingly. And it already works like a large cohort, blurring the lines between India and Bharat and global.
Two. It wants a balance between its digitally native life and mental wellness. This a really unique one and a sign of a generation that has seen excesses of previous generations around it, and wants to basically take control of its own life.
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Three. It wants a balance of personalisation, gratification and inclusivity. This is getting tougher, isn't it! It is a corollary of the previous trait. One leads to the other. The inclusivity bit is really encouraging and points to a certain worldview.
Four. It believes in "turning down the noise". Guess when you look forward to mental wellness and personalisation in an inclusive world, you want to stay away from hyper-narratives, social media intrusion and communication overkill.
In this context, how will the automakers prepare themselves to cater to the Alpha? They are not just yet another generation. They have the ability to disrupt ways of ownership, usage, choice and consumption. And they have no qualms on dumping brands just because they do not align with their thinking and ideologies, not ready to compromise and adjust.
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Indian automakers, to remain relevant two decades from now, will have to reorient their thinking and rejig their internal systems for the same. I see 5 key shifts happening over the next few years that an automaker has to prepare oneself for.
#1. Customers vis-a-vis Consumers
Automakers in the private mobility space have been more or less catering to people who come up to their showrooms to test and buy. They are people who aim to own their own piece of personal mobility. Over the last decade, the two-wheeler industry has woken up to the institutional buyer as a significant customer segment, for e-commerce, gig economy and shared transport. The four-wheeler industry is yet to cater to these applications in a focused manner. The Alpha will not necessarily wish to buy. They would prefer to simply use. Not as customers. but as consumers. Vehicles need to be defined and designed accordingly, not as after-thoughts of a mainstream product for personal use.
#2. Experiences vis-a-vis Edifices
The retail process has been more or less the same for the last century. It has been primarily physical. Yes, automakers have digitised a lot of their processes, but the physical showroom still ends up being the core around which every automaker creates ones retail strategy. The Alpha does not care about edifices of the past. Being inherently digitally native, they collect more information than you can imagine and look forward to a brand experience sans the frills and fringe. And the Bharat Alpha is very much like the India Alpha when it comes to making these choices.
#3. Interiors vis-a-vis Exteriors
This applies to the four-wheelers, buses and commercial transport of all sizes. The traits of personalisation and gratification, while being sustainable and turning down the noise will largely define tomorrow's design. The Alpha will look for harmony outside and customising inside, especially when it comes to shared mobility. Over the top exteriors are a fad today, not day after tomorrow. There needs to be huge focus on deep research with panels of youngsters today to create solutions that enhance their lifestyles and lifethoughts than trying to impose today's flavours. Materials, textures, colours, space management, flexibility, lighting and longevity will be critical skills in any product planning and design team.
#4. Collaborative vis-a-vis Competitive
This is a critical shift in the mindset of almost all legacy automakers to desist from doing everything by themselves and working with domain experts. There will be a lot of commonality amongst vehicles when it comes to features, operating systems and interfaces. This is bound to be to ensure higher levels of early warnings, safety and system compliances through large connected platoons. The differentiation will lie in the physically sensory aspects of the experience...the materials, the interiors and the styling. The Alpha's affinity with turning down the noise will need to translate into higher collaboration amongst brands, modes and methods.
#5. Product Makers vis-a-vis Solution Providers
This is the final frontier of the Indian automaker in its preparation for being Alpha-ready. This generation will look for solutions rather than mere products. The traditional automaker will have to decide whether it wishes to be just a product maker in the next twenty years or evolve into being a solution aggregator or integrator. There is solid logic on both ends of this business spectrum. As a product-centric operation, you can provide to multiple solutions and thus continue to be sustainable. As a solution provider, you are not committed to just one bunch of product suppliers nor just a single product line to remain sustainable. Each will feed into the other, yet that clarity will be important.
I asked Copilot to draw "Mobility in Gurgaon in 2040" for me and this is what I got. This is not "futuristic". This is the future.
In 2040, one might see Reliance Mobility using Maruti Suzuki, Ather, BharatBenz, Bajaj, Sarla Aviation and more as part of its pan-India services. Ola Mobility might just about finally hit the sweet spot. Or one might see Tata Motors evolve into Tata Mobility, using its multi-product portfolio as a strong starting point as a solutions provider.
All these five shifts are bound to happen. In fact #3 and #4 are already in process. The other three will emerge and evolve soon, pushed more by the ethos of Gen Alpha and its attitude towards mobility. The Indian automaker needs to be ready for this, and more.