Exit Poll Sees Gains for Britain's Conservatives, But No Clear Winner

London: Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party was projected by a national exit poll to have done well in the British general election Thursday, but the nation still faced the likelihood that there would be no outright winner.

The Conservatives were projected by the exit poll to have won 316 seats in Parliament, more than pre-election polls had suggested and up nine seats from 2010. But that outcome would still be 10 seats short of the 326 necessary to win an outright majority and seven short of the minimum necessary to have a day-to-day working majority.

The Liberal Democrats, Cameron's current coalition partner, were projected to win only 10 seats, a loss of 47 seats from 2010, but enough to put the two parties together right on the edge of being able to form the next government. The Conservatives might also win support from two smaller parties, the Democratic Unionists from Northern Ireland and the UK Independence Party.

But in an election that polls have shown to be extremely tight all along, there was considerable uncertainty about what the actual results would show, with small swings in any direction capable of shifting the outcome fundamentally.

The exit poll of 22,000 voters, conducted for the BBC, Sky News and ITV, differed sharply from a variety of opinion polls taken just before the vote. A number of party leaders sharply questioned the projections.

The opposition Labour Party and its leader, Ed Miliband, were projected by the exit poll to have won 239 seats, 19 fewer than in 2010, a considerably poorer showing than pre-election polls had suggested. At the same time, the exit poll suggested that the Scottish National Party had done remarkably well, winning 58 of 59 seats in Scotland, wiping out Labour in what had been one of its strongholds and crushing Labour's hopes for a majority. The Scottish party won only six seats in 2010.

The projected success for the Scottish party, which favors independence for Scotland, was met Thursday night on Glasgow's streets with the intermittent drunken cheering and jeering reminiscent of soccer fans celebrating their favorite club. Many in Glasgow seemed to think that another independence referendum appeared inevitable, particularly if the exit poll was right in predicting that the Conservatives comfortably beat Labour in England.

The actual results were trickling in overnight, with a full count not likely to be completed before Friday morning. While the exit poll results have been relatively accurate in the past, they are subject to considerable uncertainty, especially given the tight nature of the election, conducted across 650 separate constituencies. With such narrow margins, the next government, no matter which party forms it, is likely to be a coalition with at best a narrow majority, reliant on legislators from smaller parties and forced to negotiate each major piece of legislation.

If the exit poll is too optimistic about the Scottish nationalists and too pessimistic about the Liberal Democrats, final results could show the Conservatives and Labour closer together.

Voters at polling stations Thursday acknowledged that they were anxious about the results. In East London, Isabel Shepperd, 26, said she was "a bit nervous" that no party would get a clear majority and would create economic instability and difficulties in managing the budget.

As for the politicians, she said, "They were quite rehearsed and safe and only got passionate in the last three or so days of the campaign." So "it was difficult to know who to vote for," she said. "A lot of their policies sound quite similar."

Sophia Pym, 30, said she would vote but that she, too, was still undecided. "Do I choose the light-gray color or the dark-gray color?" she asked. "I feel like the result is going to be anti-climactic, the way a balloon deflates."

Whether Cameron or Miliband becomes prime minister, there will be some big constitutional and international challenges. The result will also have significant implications for Britain's role in Europe and the larger world, with new questions about Scotland's place in the United Kingdom, Britain's place in the European Union and in the larger trans-Atlantic relationship with the United States.

Cameron is committed to renegotiating Britain's terms of membership in the European Union if he remains prime minister, and to holding a referendum on whether to stay in the bloc by the end of 2017.

At the same time, the surge in support for the Scottish National Party is expected to reawaken questions about the future of the Britain. That is an issue that many politicians hoped had been settled last year, when Scots voted against independence in a referendum.

The rise of the Scottish National Party has mainly come at the expense of Labour, which had, until recently, dominated Scottish politics. Should Miliband get the chance to form a government, he might need the tacit support of the Scottish nationalists to form a government, although he has ruled out a formal deal.

The outcome will also determine whether Britain continues to put budgetary austerity at the heart of its economic policies, as the Conservatives have done for the past five years, or focuses more on social spending and investment, as Labour and the Scottish National Party advocate.

Businesses and the financiers of the City of London are also waiting to see what will happen to their taxes, especially if Labour wins with the support of the Scottish nationalists. But they also do not relish the uncertainty of a referendum on British membership in the European Union, as the Conservatives promise.

Overall, the outcome is expected to highlight the fragmentation of Britain's political system and to raise questions about the future of the voting system.

The Scottish National Party, which is fielding candidates only in Scotland, is likely to benefit from the British electoral system in which parties compete in 650 districts but where the votes of those not elected count for nothing. The party is forecast to become the third-largest party in Parliament, with less than five per cent of the nation's votes.

By contrast, the right-wing populist UK Independence Party, expected to draw many more votes across the rest of Britain, is likely to win just a handful of seats.

Parts of the British news media have played a strident, often partisan, role in the campaign, and on Thursday the Conservative-leaning Daily Mail offered its readers a guide on how to vote to "keep out Red Ed." The front page of the Labour-supporting Daily Mirror featured a picture of a moving van, urging its readers to force the prime minister to pack his bags and leave his official home on Downing Street. But the power of the press has been undermined, at least to some degree, by the use of social media.

Because of a law introduced in 2011 that fixed the maximum life span of Parliament at five years, the date of the election has long been known, producing a long, but rather sterile, campaign. Party leaders have appeared wary of mixing freely with voters for fear of embarrassing episodes, and both the Conservatives and Labour have run mainly predictable campaigns, which appear not to have shifted public opinion significantly.

In the event of a hung Parliament, Cameron would remain prime minister until he chooses to resign or the new Parliament approves a motion of no-confidence in his government.

Assuming he has no overall majority, he would most likely seek to join again with the Liberal Democrats and would possibly ally with the Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland. Depending on how the numbers add up, Cameron's team will then negotiate to win the support of the other parties.

But there is nothing to stop Miliband from talking to other central players at the same time, and the Liberal Democrats could work with either big party.

The process could also be extended. Parliament will next meet on May 18, a Monday, to elect the speaker and swear in newly elected members. The proposed government will be put to the test on May 27, the day it is to present its program in the Queen's Speech, which is usually delivered by the monarch even though she plays no part in the political maneuvering and takes no sides. That speech is followed by several days of debate, and then by a vote in the House of Commons that serves as a test of the government's ability to command a majority for its agenda.

Even if the speech is voted down, Parliament would also have to have a vote of no confidence in the government for it to fall. Such a vote could be in June.

The opposition leader would have 14 days in which to form a government and secure a voting majority. If that effort were to fail, new elections would be held.