Putin Could Strike NATO Allies To Test Bloc's Resolve, Say US Intel Reports

New US intelligence assessments suggest Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO's unity with a limited attack on one of its member states within the next few years, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal. Officials say the scenarios being examined range from cyberattacks and covert operations to a small-scale military incursion.

The findings mark a significant change in Washington's assessment. Until recently, US officials believed Putin would avoid confronting NATO directly while Russia remained tied down in Ukraine. That view has now shifted.

Officials say the change comes as Russia faces growing pressure on multiple fronts. Ukrainian drone strikes are increasingly hitting Russian military targets and oil infrastructure, while Moscow's advances on the battlefield have slowed despite heavy losses.

A Bid To Divide The Alliance

US officials told the publication that any move against NATO would not necessarily be aimed at winning territory but at exposing cracks within the alliance.

"The question mark is how the United States would respond in that case," said Heather Conley, senior fellow with the American Enterprise Institute, on a possible Russian incursion. "It has always been a goal [of Russia's] to challenge the credibility of NATO and to separate the United States from its allies."

US and European leaders also point to what they see as warning signs already underway, including Russian cruise missiles landing in Poland and drones entering Romanian airspace.

What Worries Intelligence Agencies

Officials believe Moscow could resort to several forms of aggression if pressure on Putin continues to grow.

The possibilities under review include cyberattacks on NATO members, covert operations involving unmarked armed groups seizing small pieces of territory, or a limited military push along NATO's eastern border. Intelligence assessments estimate that such a move, if it happens, could come anytime between this autumn and 2029.

The reports say a direct land incursion remains the least likely scenario because it would trigger NATO's Article 5 collective defence clause. Hybrid attacks, however, fall into a legal grey area.

"This has always been NATO's challenge to respond to a sub-Article Five attack, and it's been very true that to this point, NATO allies have preferred not to escalate," Conley said. Referring to Russia's cyberattacks on Estonia in 2007, she noted that the country dealt with the crisis on its own rather than invoking NATO.

NATO Says It Is Prepared

NATO said that it is ready for any contingency. "We are always thinking through and preparing for any number of scenarios. NATO is watching and we are ready to deter and defend as necessary, which we continue to demonstrate," said Col Martin O'Donnell, a NATO spokesman.

Missile Shortages Add To US Concerns

The new intelligence comes as Washington struggles with concerns over shrinking stocks of critical weapons.

Officials say inventories of long-range Precision Strike Missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), and Stinger missiles have fallen after years of military support for Ukraine and recent operations involving Iran. Supplies of Patriot, SM-3 and THAAD interceptors, along with THAAD radars and air-defence artillery units, are also under strain.

The Pentagon, however, rejected claims that the military is running short of key weapons.

Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell called reports of munition shortages false, while White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said the US military had "more than enough" weapons to "serve all of President Trump's strategic goals". She added that Trump has also directed defence contractors to increase production.

"We have everything required to strike at the time and place of the President's choosing," Parnell said. "Across multiple combatant commands, we have already executed successful operations while maintaining a deep, ready arsenal to defend our people and our interests. Any adversary who confuses media noise with American weakness will discover the truth the hard way."

Growing Debate Inside Washington

Military experts say the weapons now in short supply would be vital in any conflict with Russia.

Tom Karako of the Center for Strategic and International Studies said Precision Strike Missiles, ATACMS and Stinger missiles would be essential for stopping a land invasion.

The issue has also sparked debate inside the Trump administration. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine has reportedly warned the White House that stocks of air defence interceptors are declining. While he believes the US could still resume major combat operations against Iran if needed, officials say lower inventories would increase the risks.

A recent report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies estimated that the US fired between 1,060 and 1,430 Patriot missiles during the Iran conflict, potentially leaving as few as 870 in its arsenal.

"If it's just a question of fighting Iran, even though we've used half of the interceptors, a little more, we still have half of them left. So we could go on against Iran for quite some time," said Mark Cancian, a co-author of the CSIS report. "The problem is that the Pentagon is now very worried about what this does in the Western Pacific with China."