US Intel Says Iran's Missiles Still Guard Hormuz, But Trump Is Running Out

Iran has restored operational access to 30 of 33 missile launch sites along the Strait of Hormuz and retained nearly 70 per cent of its pre-war missile arsenal, potentially resetting a nearly three-month war with the United States and a naval stand-off for control of a maritime chokepoint that ships 20 per cent of the world's crude oil.

US intelligence officials told policymakers in closed-door briefings Iran has been able to re-open around 90 per cent of its underground storage facilities, which may contain more drones and missiles, and underscored the likely challenge to American forces running low on critical munitions, including Tomahawks and Patriots, if the ceasefire were to snap.

The intel, reported by The New York Times on May 12, seemed to undercut weeks of US laims about the 'decimation' of Iran's air defences, missile and drone launch capabilities, and raises the possibility of a global energy crisis extending for months.

Brent crude, which traded $60 to $75 a barrel in the months before the war, was pushed to four-year highs. Oil has stayed in the $100-$110 range since early March - except for three weeks in April - leaving net import countries paying billions more.

India, which imports around 89 per cent of its crude oil needs - about 40 per cent of which comes via the Hormuz - responded by diversifying sources and loosening federal taxes to help OMCs absorb most of the increased costs, which includes increased risk premiums. This week the government stressed it has sufficient oil and gas reserves.

Trump's Claims, Shot Down

On March 4, five days into the war, President Donald Trump said: "They have no navy; it's been knocked out. No air force; it's been knocked out. No air detection - that's been knocked out."

On April 2, 34 days into the war, he declared again: "Iran's Navy is gone, Air Force is in ruins, and their leaders - most of them - and the terrorist regime they led are now dead..."

That sentiment has been repeated - by Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and White House social media channels - over the past 40-odd days.

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In March Hegseth snapped back at a Pentagon briefing to say: "The military capabilities of their evil regime are crumbling", while his boss insisted in televised remarks in April: "Iran has been literally obliterated; missile-making factories are 75 per cent destroyed and the rest shattered."

But this week The Times offered a reality check, echoing an earlier Washington Post report and its own from April. In all three, US and allied intel sources said Iran still had 70 to 75 per cent of its missiles, despite US forces having struck over 13,000 Iranian military targets in 35 days.

An early-April report by CNN was even more pessimistic; sources told the broadcaster Tehran also has 'thousands of one-way attack drones' - roughly 50 per cent of its capabilities - in hand.

Ceasefire under pressure

Reports the Iranian military is far from the spent force the Trump administration wants everyone to believe it is have been followed by news that attacks may resume.

Trump and Hegseth this week called Tehran's latest peace offer "garbage".

Trump and Hegseth have insisted US forces have 'decimated' Iran military levels (File)

It included demands for the US to pay compensation, end sanctions, and recognise Iranian authority over the Hormuz. Trump's response: "We're going to make a deal or they're going to be decimated."

There is no current scenario in which Washington would agree to pay Iran war costs or recognise Tehran's control over the Hormuz. And Trump has made it clear he will not lift sanctions without Iran giving up its nuclear programme and stockpile of enriched uranium.

That leaves only two options - the Hormuz energy stalemate continues, which is bad news for the world, or military action resumes, and escalates, on the back of pressure from one side.

And that is where US intel on Iran's missile capabilities could come into play.

The Trump administration has denied any report that its missile stocks have dropped to dangerously low levels. But these multiple intel reports paint a different picture.

'Out of missiles'? Not a chance, says IRGC

And they match statements by the Iranian military, which has repeatedly said its stocks - believed to be the largest in the Middle East - are far from exhausted.

Last week an Iran MP told Turkey's Anadolu Agency his country's reserves are "sufficient to sustain years of war". In March an IRGC spokesperson warned the US "most of our advanced weapons have not even been used".

The data suggests Iran has fired only 3,600 drones and 700 missiles from older stocks.

READ | Iran's Missile Arsenal. Is It Really Gone?

If data about the US running low is even roughly accurate, resuming missile strikes now risks Washington running reserves to critically low levels, something that has alarmed its allies in Europe and Asia. This particularly with Russia continuing its war on Ukraine - and on the EU's doorstep - and China's Taiwan fixation still a point of concern in East Asia.

READ | China Is Mining Iran War For Lessons On US Military Power

In fact, this week a South China Morning Post report said Beijing has been mining the war to assess US military capabilities - defensive and offensive - in varied combat scenarios in the event of future conflicts with Washington over Taiwan.