- The US faces multiple power centers within Iran, complicating negotiations with Washington
- Iran's civilian leaders seek talks to ease sanctions and stabilise the economy
- The IRGC holds significant influence over Iran's regional and security policies
The United States is not dealing with a single, unified Iran but with multiple power centers pulling in different directions, according to The Economist.
On the one hand are Iran's civilian leaders, including the president and diplomats, engaging with Washington and signalling openness to talks and prioritising easing sanctions and stabilising the economy.
And on the other hand, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a military and economic force that holds significant influence over Iran's regional strategy and security decisions, is also an equal party to the conversation and any plan to shape the country's future.
The past few days in Middle East have seen fast-changing and often confusing developments.
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On April 17, US President Donald Trump said the Strait of Hormuz was reopened for ships, a claim echoed by Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. But that didn't last long, as groups linked to the IRGC criticised their own foreign minister for not spelling out the terms of the reopening.
Within a day, an Iranian military spokesperson said the strait had been closed again and some ships were even attacked while trying to pass through.
At the same time, Trump mocked Iran's move to re-block the passage, arguing that US restrictions had already limited Iranian shipping and the route wasn't really open anyway. On April 20, he said the US Navy had fired at and boarded an Iranian cargo ship.
Yet just a day earlier, he had said American officials would return to Islamabad for another round of talks with Iran while warning that things could get worse, including bomb threats at Iran's civilian infrastructure, if the talks failed.
Iran is facing a serious power struggle inside the country, The Economist reported. For only the second time since the Iranian Revolution 47 years ago, Iran is without a strong, clear supreme authority, and different groups are trying to take control.
State media says officials are not ready to negotiate right now. But even if talks restart, the big question for US officials going to Islamabad is, "Who in Iran actually has the authority to decide?" This confusion was visible during earlier talks held on April 11-12 in Islamabad when Iran sent about 80 people, with around 30 claiming to be decision-makers.
On one side was Majid Takht-Ravanchi, an experienced diplomat who helped negotiate the 2015 nuclear deal with the US and on the other side was Mahmoud Nabavian, a hardliner who strongly opposes America and rejects any deal.
Military figures are appearing more in public messaging, replacing religious leaders. There are even signs of social changes, like a woman leading slogans at a rally without a head covering, something that would have been unthinkable earlier.
So, even if Iran returns to talks with the US, its internal divisions may make it difficult to finalise a deal.
