- US President Trump pledged involvement in security guarantees for Ukraine after talks with Zelensky and allies
- Article 5-like guarantees imply collective defence but no automatic US military intervention in Ukraine
- Ukraine seeks $90bn in US arms purchases and a $50bn drone production deal with European funding
After meeting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and other European allies to discuss a peace deal to end the Russia-Ukraine war, US President Donald Trump pledged to be involved in providing security guarantees for Kyiv. However, the uncertainty remains whether guarantees would go beyond the material and financial aid already provided to Ukraine since Russia's 2022 full-scale invasion or extend to the unlikely prospect of direct military intervention if Moscow resumes hostilities.
So far, the Trump administration has not committed to adding American forces to the mix in Ukraine. But, Trump's Russia envoy Steve Witkoff, after the Alaska summit between the US and Russian Presidents, had said the United States could offer Ukraine "Article 5-like protection".
What Would 'Article 5-Like Guarantee' Look Like
Article 5 is a cornerstone of the NATO Western military alliance, stating that an attack on any member is deemed to be an attack on all. Under the article, each member state would then have to take actions "it deems necessary -- including the use of armed force" -- but there is no automatic commitment to direct military action.
What Ukraine Wants
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that as part of his country's security guarantees, Ukraine would purchase $90 billion in American weapons through European funding.
Addressing the media following the White House meeting with Trump, Zelensky said another part of the guarantees would involve Ukraine manufacturing drones, some of which would be purchased by the US.
"The agreement will be formalised over the next week or 10 days," he said.
According to a document shared with allies and cited by several media reports, the proposal also includes a $50 billion drone production deal with US partners. The document stresses that "a lasting peace shall be based not on concessions and free gifts to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin, but on (a) strong security framework that will prevent future aggression."
What Allies Are Saying
A so-called "coalition of the willing" -- some 30 countries led by France and Britain -- has said that it stands ready to support Ukraine to prevent fighting from resuming. Military planning for the same has been underway since February, and according to an AFP report, it includes support for rebuilding Ukraine's army, seen as its main security guarantee, as well as air assets to protect its airspace and Black Sea traffic.
"A deployment of 'several thousand troops' in Ukraine is also under consideration," French President Emmanuel Macron said.
"These forces are not intended to hold a front line or be engaged in a hot conflict but to signal solidarity from a strategic point of view," he added.
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has also talked about assembling a force that would be stationed in Ukraine after a cease-fire or peace agreement. But no further details on what the force would look like are publicly available, and the final call on what this force would look like will probably depend on what a cease-fire or a peace accord looks like - if negotiations get that far.
Three Probabilities On Guarantees
Per a New York Post report, one concept of security guarantees is a full-blown "peacekeeping force," presumably armed, that could supplement the Ukrainian military in case of renewed Russian attack. These forces would likely be deployed for defensive purposes, but the idea behind their presence would be to deter Russian forces rethink getting into a conflict with soldiers from NATO member states.
But, to be a credible deterrent, the force would take tens of thousands of troops, which would be difficult to assemble.
So, the second option could be a far smaller tripwire" force that may not be able to mount much of a defence, but the theory is that the Russians would hesitate to risk killing non-Ukrainian Europeans in any resumed invasion effort, the NYT article said.
A third possibility could also be to create a small "observer force" that could be there to report on an incoming military action. As the majority of this task could be achieved using satellites and ground cameras, and the force wouldn't need to be big, but it also won't be able to mount any kind of defence.
Putin's Trap?
Security guarantees are billed as a way to prevent fighting from resuming, unlike the Minsk accords of 2014 and 2015, which contained no such provisions.
But past pledges have failed: Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom committed in Budapest in 1994 to respect Ukraine's borders in exchange for its nuclear disarmament -- a deal that "did not work", Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky said.
"Guaranteeing a country's security ultimately means only one thing: being prepared to fight to save it if necessary," said Audrand.
"And that is a sticking point for Europeans."
For Russia specialist Dimitri Minic, "Moscow will not accept any solid security guarantees for Ukraine" –- guarantees that "Washington is not prepared to give anyway".
"Outside of NATO, there is no credible guarantor of Ukrainian security," said Janis Kluge at the Berlin-based SWP think tank.
"Putin will never accept any outcome of the war that leaves Ukraine free and functioning," he added.
"If it seems like Putin is agreeing to this, it's a trap."
