Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will on Monday unveil sweeping changes to the UK asylum system, including Danish-style proposals to limit the time refugees can stay in the country, according to sources with knowledge of the plans.
Mahmood is expected to pledge "whatever it takes" to regain control of Britain's borders, and will refer to the tens of thousands of irregular migrants crossing the English Channel each year or people who outstay their visa as "gaming the system."
It's the latest effort by the Labour government to appear tough on immigration, as it attempts to win back voters who are worried about small boat arrivals and increasingly turning to Nigel Farage's anti-immigration Reform UK party. Reform, which gained just five of the 650 parliamentary seats at the 2024 general election, would emerge as the largest party if a vote was held now, polling shows.
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The number of people arriving on small boats has hit almost 40,000 so far this year, on track for the highest annual total since 2022. That's despite Labour's pledge to "smash" the criminal gangs behind the crossings. More than 400,000 people have claimed asylum since 2021, almost triple the number between 2011 and 2015.
The Home Office has deported or removed nearly 50,000 immigrants in the country illegally since Labour came to power, according to figures released this week, up 23% on the previous 16 months. However, Mahmood wants to send a clearer message to those arriving from safe countries such as France that they should not make the journey.
Sources close to Mahmood said earlier this week that the Home Office would model its system more closely on countries such as Denmark, which has seen the number of asylum seekers drop since making it harder for them to claim the legal right to stay.
A team of senior officials travelled to Copenhagen in recent weeks to learn from the Danish approach, according to a source with knowledge of Home Office decisions.
The protection given to refugees, which is currently permanent, will be made time-limited and their immigration status subject to regular review. People will be removed once their home country is deemed safe.
"Reviewing whether it is safe to return could be labor-intensive if it requires the government effectively to reassess all refugees' protection claims," said Madeleine Sumption, director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.
"Taking a Denmark-style package as whole, it is difficult to predict how much such policies would affect asylum seekers' decisions to come to the UK. Asylum seekers are not always fully aware of the policies in place. Many other factors affect their decisions to come to the UK."
Any effort to crack down is likely to be unpopular with some on the left of the Labour Party and others who think Keir Starmer's government is turning its back on those fleeing persecution and war, and is allowing Farage to dictate its policy direction.
"Refugees don't compare asylum systems before running for their lives. They come to the UK because they already have family here, speak some English or have long-standing ties that help them rebuild their lives in safety," said Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council.
"In reality, people in that situation will often be unable to safely return after only a few years. Refugees should be able to rebuild their lives and contribute to this country - as doctors, nurses, carers, entrepreneurs and valued members of their communities."
READ: Britain To Tighten Immigration Rules For Permanent Residence After 5 Years
Mahmood, whose appointment as home secretary in September was widely seen as a sign Labour was toughening its stance on immigration, is expected to say that the border "crisis" is "out of control." She will say it is placing strain on communities, and is unfair to Britons who are working hard and paying tax.
She will add that the UK's "generosity" toward asylum seekers is drawing people from across Europe - and that if Labour fails to get a grip on Channel migration, moderate politics will be replaced by "something darker." Sources close to the home secretary said she was warning anyone who disagreed with her that "If you don't like this, you won't like what follows me."
Mahmood will make her speech as Starmer battles political crises on multiple fronts. The prime minister has emerged weaker following anonymous briefings against a cabinet minister accused of plotting to oust him. Then on Friday, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves ditched the centerpiece of her budget tax-raising plans, triggering a selloff on bond markets.
With Starmer's future once again under scrutiny, Mahmood - a persuasive speaker - is seen as a possible next Labour leader, according to odds on Betfair Exchange.
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
