Russian crude is being offered to Indian buyers at lower prices as European Union sanctions and threats of penalties from the US cloud the demand outlook, according to data intelligence firm Kpler Ltd.
The price of Urals, the OPEC+ producer's flagship oil, is more than $5 a barrel cheaper than Dated Brent, according to a note on Wednesday from Kpler, which cited Argus data. That compares with almost parity two weeks ago.
The downward trend is likely to continue due to uncertainty around US actions, which will trigger a more cautious stance from state-run and private refiners, and plant maintenance in Russia leading to more supply from August to October, according to Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler.
Still, replacing Russia's 37% market share will be costly for Indian refiners and it's unlikely they will fully cease imports, Kpler said. State-run companies are considering a pause, although private players are still taking barrels, just at a lower pace, according to the data intelligence firm.
India's crude imports from the US have also climbed to around 225,000 barrels a day since May, nearly twice the levels in early 2025, Kpler added.
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