Russian President Vladimir Putin will be in New Delhi on December 4-5, 2025, for the annual India-Russia Summit. This is his first visit to India since the Ukraine war altered global alignments and defence supply chains. The meeting carries significant diplomatic and strategic weight, coming at a time when New Delhi is recalibrating its long-standing dependence on Russian military hardware while dramatically expanding energy trade with Moscow.
Over two days, the two sides will review cooperation across defence, nuclear energy, hydrocarbons, space, technology, and trade. A key focus is expected to be next-generation air-defence systems, including discussions around Russia's S-500 platform, signalling that military ties remain central even as India diversifies suppliers. The Russian S-400 was used to shield India from drone attacks by Pakistan during Operation Sindoor.
Defence: Russia Still No. 1, But Not What it Once Was
For decades, India was overwhelmingly reliant on Moscow for its military inventory-a legacy of Cold War alignment and the Soviet Union's readiness to transfer technologies that Western countries were hesitant to share. However, that dominance has weakened in recent years.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Russia supplied over 70% of India's major conventional arms through the early 2000s and 2010s, peaking at 89% in 2002. A similar surge was seen in 2012, when Russia supplied 87% of India's arms imports.
However, after 2014, the share began to decline, dropping to 49% in 2014 and falling further to 38% in 2019. In the latest five-year period (2019-2023), Russia's share dropped to around 36%, the lowest in over 60 years. India's imports from Western suppliers, particularly France and the US, have increased as New Delhi spreads its defence bets.
This decline does not mean that Russia has lost relevance. Moscow remains India's top supplier because of:
- The legacy of Soviet-origin systems that still require Russian maintenance.
- Big-ticket platforms like nuclear submarines and air-defence systems, which few other nations supply.
- India's interest in next-generation missile defence and hypersonic systems, where Russia remains ahead of many Western suppliers.
A Strategic Shift in What India Buys
India's procurement pattern has changed markedly. Where aircraft once dominated defence imports, India is now increasingly focusing on:
      •     Air-defence systems
      •     Missiles
      •     Naval platforms
      •     Armoured vehicles
      •     Joint production and technology transfer
This mirrors two broader trends:
1. Diversification of suppliers:
India is building a mix of Russian, Western and indigenous systems to reduce the risk of over-reliance on any single country, which became a concern after supplies got disrupted during the Ukraine conflict.
2. Rise of Indian manufacturing;
Under the government's "Aatmanirbhar Bharat" push, the share of defence items manufactured domestically has increased. Several Russian-origin platforms, such as Ak-203 rifles, BrahMos missiles, ship components, etc, now involve local production.
Trade: A Completely Different Story
While defence dependence on Russia has declined, economic dependence has grown sharply, driven almost entirely by energy. India now buys more oil from Russia than ever before.
After Western sanctions on Moscow in 2022, Russia began offering deep-discounted crude. India, which is the world's third-largest oil importer, seized the opportunity.
This transformed bilateral trade as imports from Russia surged, led by crude oil, fertilisers, vegetable oils, coal, and metals. However, exports to Russia remain modest, dominated by machinery, pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment, organic chemicals, and marine products.
According to the Ministry of Commerce and Industry India's exports to Russia remain very low, consistently around 0.7% to 1.1% of India's total exports over the past nine financial years. In contrast, imports from Russia have risen sharply, especially after 2020-21, climbing from 1.4% to 6.5% in 2022-23 and reaching nearly 9% in both 2023-24 and 2024-25. During the current financial year, imports stand at 8.6%, while exports remain just 1%.
India now exports specialised industrial goods to Russia, but what it buys back-mostly energy-is exponentially larger in value and volume.
What's at Stake in Putin's 2025 Visit
1. Air-Defence Deals - S-500 on the Table?
Any movement on the S-500 or related systems would be a major signal that Russia remains India's preferred partner for missile defence.
2. Technology Transfer
India is expected to push for deeper joint production and co-development, especially in missiles, submarines, and aviation, to meet self-reliance goals.
3. Oil Pricing and Future Energy Needs
With global prices volatile, India will look to secure predictable supplies and long-term contracts.
This summit comes as India strengthens defence ties with the US, France, and Japan. How New Delhi positions its Moscow relationship will offer clues about its balancing strategy in a rapidly polarising world.
India's relationship with Russia is changing as Defence ties become non-exclusive but broaden at the same time, and technology cooperation remains a key bargaining chip for both sides.
Putin's visit will test whether the two countries can adapt their decades-old partnership to a new geopolitical and economic landscape.
