Since Israel recognised Somaliland last month, the self-declared republic on the Gulf of Aden has become central to a struggle over military access, ports and regional influence across the Red Sea corridor.
Somaliland sits astride one of the world's most strategic maritime choke points, flanked by multiple conflicts in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East.
It declared independence from Somalia in 1991 but had never been recognised internationally until Israel's move.
Israel's recognition was fiercely opposed by the Somali government as an attack on its territorial unity -- a position backed by most African and Arab leaders.
But Somaliland's assets -- most crucially the port and airfield at Berbera, which have been developed by the United Arab Emirates since 2016 to be capable of hosting large naval and air assets -- outweighed any potential concern about the diplomatic fall-out.
A Somaliland official, speaking anonymously to AFP, said new buildings and an airbase facility were recently completed at Berbera by the UAE, which has a 25-year concession to build a military base.
"What is at stake right now is military access," said Roland Marchal, an expert on the region with France's National Centre for Scientific Research.
"This is a shift from the recent past" when the focus was on commercial shipping, he added.
Israel And The UAE
For the Israelis, Somaliland offers a prime spot from which to attack Yemen's Houthi rebels, who have targeted Israel to show solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
Berbera offers another hub for the quiet military cooperation between the UAE and Israel that has expanded since the Emiratis formally recognised Israel under the US-sponsored Abraham Accords in 2020.
The UAE did not criticise Israel for recognising Somaliland.
The Somali government said on Monday it was cancelling all agreements with the UAE for "undermining national sovereignty".
Analysts say the Emiratis are nonetheless unlikely to formally recognise Somaliland as that would worsen its already terrible relations with regional rival Saudi Arabia.
The Saudis "would view (recognition) as another affront and another example of the UAE undermining Saudi Arabia's authority and the 'Arab consensus'", said Anna Jacobs, a Gulf analyst.
Turkey And China
Turkey has sided with Somalia, its key strategic partner in the region -- host of its largest international military base, a planned space-port and imminent oil-drilling projects.
The fragmentation of Somalia "could jeopardise Turkey's progress and interests in the country", said Scott Romaniuk, a researcher at Budapest's Corvinus University.
Not to mention Turkey's long-standing opposition to Israel's war in Gaza and fear of encouraging its own separatists, the Kurds.
Turkey has nonetheless maintained a foothold in Somaliland, said Federico Donelli of the University of Trieste, and is closely allied with the UAE in other areas -- highlighting the complexity of regional dynamics.
Meanwhile, Somaliland is the only African territory, besides the tiny state of Eswatini, to recognise Taiwan -- enough to attract the ire of China, which also has significant investments in Somalia.
United States
Washington defended what it said was its Israeli ally's right to recognise Somaliland, although President Donald Trump said he was unlikely to follow suit, despite pressure from some within his Republican party.
"The United States is not at all in a position to recognise Somaliland," Marchal said.
"The United States needs local allies. They can't alienate Egypt, the Turks and Saudi Arabia (all supporters of Somalia) at the same time."
The United States can count on plenty of other military assets in the region, including ships in the Red Sea and the Gulf, and the Baledogle airfield in Somalia.
Somaliland
Lost in the geopolitical scramble is any assessment of Somaliland's own case for independence.
It has run its own affairs since 1991 and been far more stable and democratic than the rest of Somalia, but those are secondary considerations for its partners.
"It's sad because the merits of Somaliland aren't discussed," Marchal said.
"What Somaliland has achieved, what it has failed at, is completely ignored."
(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)
