Pakistan is trying to challenge India's long-standing dominance in South Asian geopolitics with a new proposal to alter regional alliances. Pakistan Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar recently said that Islamabad is working to 'expand' its trilateral initiative with Bangladesh and China to include other regional nations and beyond.
But given India's economic heft and crisis management credentials, analysts believe no nation would risk joining a grouping that excludes New Delhi.
Pakistan's Proposal
Last week, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Dar made a pitch for a new regional body to replace the long-dormant South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). His remarks come amid escalating India-Pakistan tensions, especially after a four-day military conflict between the two nuclear-armed nations in May.
Dar claimed that South Asia could no longer afford to remain trapped in "zero-sum mindsets, political fragmentation and dysfunctional regional architecture," as he announced that Islamabad is seeking to "open and inclusive regionalism".
He signalled that Pakistan has support for emerging multilateral platforms outside SAARC and said Islamabad envisions a South Asia where cooperation replaces "divisions, economies grow in synergy, disputes are resolved peacefully in accordance with international legitimacy, and where peace is maintained with dignity and honour".
Pakistan, Bangladesh and China established a trilateral mechanism earlier this year to foster mutual collaboration in areas of common interest. In June, the three nations held a meeting in Kunming, the first of its kind.
"This concept can be expanded and replicated. As I have said before, groups with variable geometry – on issues from the economy to regional priorities – cannot and should not be held hostage to anyone's rigidity," Dar, who is also Pakistan's Foreign Minister, said, in a veiled reference to India.
SAARC has been almost defunct amid heightened India-Pakistan tensions in recent years.
What's SAARC
SAARC, the main regional grouping in South Asia, was established in 1985 at a summit in Dhaka. Its seven founding members were India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, the Maldives, Nepal, and Sri Lanka. Afghanistan also joined the bloc in 2007.
According to its website, the bloc's main objective is to promote economic growth, social progress and cultural development within the South Asia region.
Despite its lofty ambitions, the SAARC held its last summit in 2014. The next meeting of the bloc, planned in 2016 in Islamabad, was cancelled following the terrorist attack in Uri, for which India blamed Pakistan. New Delhi has since maintained that Islamabad's support for cross-border terrorism makes SAARC meetings unworkable.
Though still a SAARC member, New Delhi has shifted its focus toward the BIMSTEC (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) grouping that excludes Pakistan for regional cooperation.
Why South Asian Cooperation Is Important
As per the latest figures, the SAARC countries make up over two billion of the world's population, making South Asia the world's most densely populated region. However, trade within South Asia remains at just $23 billion, representing only about 5 per cent of the region's overall commerce, according to the World Bank data.
Lack of regional connectivity is cited as one major reason for the region's weak trade links.
The Washington-based institution estimated that South Asian nations could exchange goods worth $67 billion - three times their current trade – if they reduced barriers.
Can Pakistan's Plan Work?
According to Lahore-based academic Rabia Akhtar, Pakistan's proposal at this stage is likely "more aspirational than operational".
"But it signals Pakistan's intent to diversify and reimagine regional cooperation mechanisms at a time when SAARC remains paralysed," Akhtar, who is director at the Centre for Security, Strategy and Policy Research (CSSPR) at the University of Lahore, told Al Jazeera.
But the viability of the proposal will depend on two factors, according to Akhtar.
"First, whether prospective states see functional value in smaller, issue-focused groupings at a moment when traditional architectures are stalled; and second, whether participation does not trigger political costs vis-a-vis India," he said.
This is not the first time Pakistan has tried to redraw the map of regional cooperation. Islamabad, along with Beijing, made a similar attempt in June.
At the time, Swaran Singh, a professor of international relations at New Delhi's Jawaharlal Nehru University, noted that India's position in South Asia is unassailable.
Talking to the South China Global Post, he noted that India's population is seven times that of Pakistan, its defence budget is five times the size of Islamabad's, and its economy is 12 times larger. Its foreign exchange reserves can also dwarf Pakistan's by a factor of 45.
"This should give us enough idea of the future of any South Asian regional cooperation initiatives that seek to keep India out of its formulation," he said.
Another JNU associate professor, Shantesh Kumar Singh, noted that some smaller nations in the region, like Nepal and Bhutan, depend on access to India to fulfil many of their export needs, and in times of crises, like during any disaster response and vaccine diplomacy during the Covid-19 pandemic, New Delhi has proved itself as an indispensable leader.
"India must continue to be a responsible and collaborative leader, fostering trust and inclusive collaboration to avoid external forces from dictating South Asia's regional architecture and goals," he said, adding that Delhi's proactive participation was essential for a "balanced regional order" given China's growing strategic footprint.
He added that Delhi's absence could leave SAARC "fragmented and underfunded".
