Pakistan Faces Severe Water Crisis Amid Extreme Heat, Indus Waters Shortage

Pakistan's Punjab province may be looking ahead to a tough kharif (summer crops) sowing season amid a major water shortage in its Indus River system, comprising the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Islamabad has said that two of its key damns-- Tarbela on the Indus river and Mangla on the Jhelum river are running low on waters, while there has been a "sudden decrease" in Chenab River inflows after a short supply by India in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terror attack.

The latest data released by the Pakistan government shows that the availability of water in the Indus River System (inside Pakistan's Punjab province) has declined by 10.3 per cent as of 02 June, 2025, vis-a-vis 02 June, 2024. This situation may get worse in the coming weeks with the onset of the Southwest monsoon still at least four weeks away.

According to Islamabad's Indus River System Authority (IRSA) -- which functions as a regulator to manage the distribution of water in the Indus River system inside Pakistan -- the total availability of water in Punjab province was just 1,28,800 Cusecs on June 2, 2025, which is 14,800 Cusecs less than the month of water available last year on the same say. 

This water shortage may prove catastrophic for farmers as the Kharif sowing season is underway, and the Southwest Monsoon is not likely to reach Punjab Province until the end of June, leading to irrigation problems amid extreme summer heat. 

This comes after Pakistan, last month, projected an overall water shortage of 21 per cent this summer and advised dam authorities and irrigation supply monitoring agencies to use water from reservoirs judiciously. Islamabad also projected a 50 per cent water shortage in live storage of the two key dams, which play a crucial role in providing water for irrigation in Punjab and Sindh provinces of Pakistan and generating hydropower.

The worsening crisis was probably what prompted Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to raise his concerns at a conference on glacier preservation in Tajikistan's Dushanbe last week, and draw global attention to India's decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty.

Indus Waters Treaty

The water shortage in Pakistan is a likely fallout of India's decision to hold the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 in abeyance following the Pahalgam attack, which was attributed to Pakistan's support for cross-border terrorism. The Treaty allocates the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan and the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India. At the same time, it allows each country certain uses of the rivers allocated to the other.

The treaty gives India 20 per cent of the water from the Indus River System and the rest 80 per cent to Pakistan. The attack in Pahalgam occurred on April 22 at Baisaran meadow, where terrorists targeted tourists, killing 25 Indian nationals and one Nepalese citizen, and leaving several others injured.

With the suspension of the treaty, India has stopped sharing the water level data in three rivers with Pakistan. This could prove catastrophic for Islamabad during Monsoons as India's early warnings about rising waters in the three rivers helped Pakistan issue timely evacuation warnings to people living in low-lying areas in Punjab and Sindh province.