Japan PM Sanae Takaichi's Election Victory Presents Dilemma For China

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's election victory is handing Chinese leader Xi Jinping a dilemma: Engage with Japan's most popular post-war leader or continue a deep freeze with the US's top ally in Asia.

Takaichi emerged Sunday from a snap election with a historic majority that gives her a mandate for a more assertive foreign policy, just as China ramps up pressure. Since November, when she implied in parliament that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could prompt Japan to deploy its military, Beijing has imposed export controls and tourism curbs to pressure her to retract those remarks. 

Chinese leaders must now decide whether to maintain economic pressure on Tokyo, or find an elegant off-ramp to the dispute. Takaichi has stated she wants stable relations with Beijing, but it remains politically impossible to take back her comments without appearing to compromise Japan's security.

Several Japanese officials, who asked not to be identified speaking about a sensitive topic, said their hope is China will have little choice but to eventually re-engage because Takaichi's strong domestic mandate means her administration will likely be around for the next few years.

At a press conference on Monday, Takaichi said Japan was continuing to communicate with China at "various levels" and would respond "calmly and appropriately from the standpoint of Japan's national interests."

But Chinese officials are showing little sign of budging. Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a regular briefing on Monday that China's policy toward Japan "will not change because of any single election." He renewed a call for Takaichi to retract her remarks, adding: "The Chinese people's resolve to defend the country's core interests is unwavering."

The message from Chinese analysts was similar: Takaichi should use her big win to send an olive branch to Beijing, rather than the other way around. 

"The general trend is that major Western nations, including NATO allies, are seeking to improve ties with Beijing," said Henry Wang Huiyao, founder of the Center for China and Globalization research group in Beijing. "A wise politician knows when to go with the flow."

Trump, Yasukuni Shrine

The rift comes at a delicate moment for Donald Trump, as he tries to preserve a fragile trade truce with Beijing while maintaining support for Tokyo, an important security and economic partner. Underscoring that balancing act, Takaichi is set to travel to the White House for a summit next month, weeks before Trump makes the first visit of a US president to China in nearly a decade.

In the aftermath of her win, Trump praised Takaichi's "Peace Through Strength Agenda" in a Truth Social post, reinforcing his push for US allies to ramp up defense spending. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wrote on X: "When Japan is strong, the US is strong in Asia."

Already, Takaichi has flashed signs of a bolder stance toward Beijing. In response to a question during a television interview on Sunday evening, Takaichi said she was "working on creating the right environment" for a visit to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, where Japan's war dead are commemorated. China regards the shrine a symbol of Japanese war-time atrocities. 

Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party also won a two-thirds majority in parliament, giving it the ability to initiate constitutional change. She has long pushed for reform of the pacifist constitution, which was imposed by the US after World War II and never amended. 

Any constitutional changes also requires approval of the upper house, where the LDP is much weaker, as well as a national referendum - meaning the process will likely take years, if it happens at all. Still, Takaichi on Monday vowed to press ahead with that goal.

"I am committed to creating an environment in which a national referendum can be held as soon as possible to let the public decide on whether or not to amend the constitution," Takaichi said.

China has consistently warned Japan about embracing "militarism" since Takaichi returned to office. Some influential Chinese bloggers on Monday signaled concern over an emboldened Takaichi.

'A More Dangerous Japan'

"What we will face is a more dangerous Japan," Niutanqin, a senior editor for the official Xinhua News Agency, wrote in a commentary for his blog on the social media platform WeChat. He cited the possibility for Takaichi's government to revise Japan's constitution, expand military spending, seek offensive weapons and even change its longstanding non-nuclear stance.

"Japan is set to become more provocative on the Taiwan question," he wrote, referring to the self-ruled island China considers its territory.

Still, the scale of Takaichi's election win could help to ease tensions in the long term if history is a guide. After Japan's then-leader Shinzo Abe returned to power in 2012 with a sweeping election victory, and won another vote in 2014, a detente with Beijing emerged following tensions stemming from a territorial dispute.

Even then, the rapprochement played out in slow-motion with Xi and Abe not meeting until late 2014, when they sat down in Beijing on the sidelines of an APEC leaders' summit. It took years for Japanese investment into China or Chinese tourist flows to Japan to recover, suggesting any thaw with Takaichi could be a long process.

China's hosting of the APEC leaders' summit this November in Shenzhen could provide a similar venue for Xi and Takaichi to talk through their differences. 

Red Line

Previous disputes with Japan, however, haven't directly involved the question of Taiwan sovereignty, which could make Beijing more reluctant to ease off its pressure campaign. China has become increasingly intolerant for such perceived violations of its primary red line, concerned they would embolden "separatists" in Taiwan. 

China downgraded diplomatic ties with Lithuania in 2021 after the Baltic nation let Taiwan open a de-facto embassy using the name "Taiwan" instead of Taipei, as is typically the case in other countries. In a phone call with Trump last week, Xi urged the US leader to "handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence" in unusually specific language.

How the relationship between Asia's top economies evolves depends on several data points, according to Jeremy Chan, senior analyst at Eurasia Group and a former US diplomat in China and Japan.  

"China will wait and see whom she appoints to her cabinet, how her state visit to Washington goes and whether she moves forward on her pledges to harden Japan's defense against China," he said.

(Except for the headline, this story has not been edited by NDTV staff and is published from a syndicated feed.)