Trump's Iran Ceasefire Gamble Ignites Netanyahu's Strike Fury

Israel is 'concerned' Donald Trump will declare a ceasefire in Iran before it can dismantle that country's nuclear and ballistic missile programmes, The New York Times said Wednesday based on inputs from two senior Tel Aviv officials.

Tel Aviv is reportedly wary of a deal being announced as early as Saturday, one that it believes the US will sign-off on without 'properly understanding' Tehran's commitment to its 15-point peace proposal.

The report is consistent with Israeli media reporting Tuesday Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the military to step up strikes on Iran military targets in the next 48 hours.

Sources told Israel's Channel 12 news 'the likelihood of a detailed and comprehensive agreement between Iran and the US remains low... but the possibility of a more general framework is plausible, necessitating preparation'.

Specifically, Israel believes the 15-point proposal - which Iran has rejected for now - does not guarantee removal of the regime and dismantling of its weapons programmes.

Israel also views this war as a chance to deliver a fatal blow to Iran's much-vaunted Axis of Resistance, i.e., the network of Middle East militia groups funded and armed by Tehran.

Accepting a US-led early conclusion to the fighting would negate that goal too.

The Times of Israel said Netanyahu is in talks with Defence Minister Israel Katz, Mossad chief David Barnea, IDF chief Lieutenant General Eyal Zamir, and other senior figures.

If US announces a ceasefire...

Based on Netanyahu's recent orders, Israel will likely ignore any ceasefire and continue attacks to eliminate Tehran's nuclear and missile programmes and destabilise the current regime.

This aligns with Tel Aviv's reaction to US-brokered ceasefires in Gaza (January and October 2025) and Iran (June 2025); in both cases Israeli strikes continued after peace was announced.

In the case of Gaza, Al Jazeera this week cited the latter's Government Media Office to say that Israel violated the October ceasefire 'at least 2,073 times from October 10, 2025, to March 18, 2026, through the continuation of attacks by air, artillery, and direct shooting".

Tel Aviv was similarly dismissive of the US-negotiated ceasefire after the Twelve-Day War with Iran in June 2025.

Defence Minister Katz accused Iran of having violated the deal first and said he had ordered the military to 'respond forcefully... with intense strikes against regime targets".

Iran denied launching missiles after the ceasefire announcement.

A furious Trump, headed for the NATO summit in The Hague, lashed out at Israel.

"All Planes Will Head Home": Trump, Unhappy With Israel, Dials Netanyahu

"ISRAEL. DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES," the US president said on Truth Social.

Trump's warning to Israel.

Israel backed down after a phone call between Trump and Netanyahu.

What will that do to US-Israel relations?

The war in Iran is a direct response to aggression by the US and Israel, who are widely reported as acting in concert, though not as an allied force, in attacking military and energy targets.

But Washington and Tel Aviv have not always been on the same page.

In early March the White House indicated it had been blindsided by Israel attacks on oil storage facilities near Tehran.

Warplanes hit multiple oil depots in and around Tehran.

Axios said Tel Aviv notified Washington of the strikes - Israel had claimed the facilities were being used to fuel missile launches - but the attacks went 'far beyond what the US expected'. The media report cited an American official who said the US military was surprised by how 'wide-ranging' the strikes were and said, 'We don't think it was a good idea'.

An Israeli official said the message from Washington was 'WTF'.

White House Sent 'WTF' Message To Israel After Iran Oil Field Strike: Report

Should the US announce a ceasefire and Israel ignore it, however briefly, it will likely exacerbate any tension between the two countries, and, critically, split the current war narrative.

Fighting will continue. Death tolls, including civilian and children, will climb. Damage to energy infrastructure will cost billions of dollars to repair. And, crucially, energy prices will continue to skyrocket, with benchmark Brent potentially breaching the US$120-150 per barrel threshold.

Is there going to be a US-Iran peace deal?

On Tuesday Trump claimed progress in attempts to end a war the US and Israel started on Feb 28 but which seems to have gone off-script since, leading to global energy market shocks and a potential decades-long disruption to crude and gas supplies coming out of the Middle East.

The US President, who insists Iran wants peace, despite experts suggesting the Middle East country seems to hold the upper hand at this stage, said his administration is "talking to the right people" in Tehran.

Why Mohammad Ghalibaf Could Be A Critical Cog In Trump's Iran Project

His comments were interpreted as backchannel talks with Iran parliament speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf over regime change and oil concessions, though Ghalibaf rubbished the idea.

Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf is reportedly Trump's man on the inside in Iran.

The longer fighting continues in Iran the more pressure Trump will come under, particularly as fuel and food prices rise as a result of an increasingly unstable energy market. His approval rating has fallen from 40 per cent to 36, the lowest since he returned to the White House.

Voter pressure and domestic critics will also weigh heavily ahead of November mid-terms.

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Trump has also come under fire for dragging the US into another apparent 'forever' war, a reference to prolonged and costly  involvement in military conflicts like Iraq and Afghanistan. The President had vowed not to lead the US into such situations.

The US had earlier sent Iran the 15-point proposal - delivered via Pakistan, The Times said.

It is unclear if Israel was consulted in drawing up those 15 points.

In any case, Iran has dismissed the US' 15 points and tabled a five-point plan of its own, insisting it will "end the war when it decides to do so and when its conditions have been met".

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